New York, July 9, 2026, 11:20 (EDT)
Tesla shares climbed Thursday morning after RBC Capital lifted its price target to $500. The move puts a number on a merger scenario with SpaceX, which is still just speculation at this point. RBC’s Tom Narayan said, “Raise PT to $500 on Potential SpaceX Combination.” Narayan said the new target bakes in a 25% to 30% premium for a possible SpaceX deal, even though those reports are unconfirmed. Investing.com Nigeria
This matters today with merger speculation turning up in broker models. SpaceX trades as a live stock, not just a private asset, so investors can price any merger and have to face questions around voting control, index flows and how to value the name.
The U.S. market opened in New York. At 11:05 a.m. EDT, Tesla was at $396.25, up $2.19. SpaceX last traded at $149.78, up $1.48.
| Company | Latest read | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Tesla | $396.25, up $2.19 | Deal premium gets measured against Tesla’s outlook for EVs, robotaxis and energy-storage |
| SpaceX | $149.78, up $1.48 | With a public price, merger talk is less theoretical and investors get a real benchmark |
| Rocket Lab | Morgan Stanley raised its bull-case target to $293 from $185 | The smaller peer is stacked up against the SpaceX model, with space stocks moving toward recurring services and away from just launches |
Tesla’s current position looks better than earlier this year. It reported Q2 deliveries of 480,126 vehicles and production of 451,758, plus 13.5 gigawatt-hours of energy storage deployed. That’s battery capacity. Tesla plans to release full Q2 results after the close on July 22.
Bulls say Tesla and SpaceX already overlap on big pieces: AI, chips, batteries, robotics and self-driving tech. MarketWatch said the companies have teamed up for years. In March, Musk said they started building a factory aiming at a terawatt of compute hardware output per year—a trillion watts, as a scale for AI gear.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has been outspoken. He sees a merger by 2027 and wrote that Musk wants to have more control over the AI ecosystem, calling a tie-up a potential “holy grail” for linking Tesla and SpaceX. The SpaceX prospectus said the two firms had laid the “early foundation” of a working partnership through some commercial projects. The Wall Street Journal
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell didn’t rule it out in a CNBC interview picked up by Business Insider. “That might make Elon’s life a little easier,” Shotwell said. She said there was “no question” about possible synergies, but also noted she was “not focused on that part of the future.” Business Insider said SpaceX had raised $75 billion in its IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation. Business Insider
| Merger question | Bull argument | Main friction |
|---|---|---|
| Structure | Some analysts say an all-stock merger is possible, so investors would get shares and not cash | Valuing both companies won’t be simple since both depend on AI and future autonomy bets |
| Control | Bringing the companies together could streamline Musk’s AI, space and transportation interests | Voting, board sign-off and the way small shareholders get treated are likely to face tough reviews |
| Operations | Tesla offers manufacturing scale, battery tech and robotaxi plans; SpaceX has launch access, satellite networks and AI capacity | SpaceX’s military contracts and Tesla’s ties to China may make approvals tougher |
The bear case still stands out. Barron’s reported BNP Paribas analyst James Picariello doesn’t think a deal is close. He pointed to cash burn at both Tesla and SpaceX, tricky regulations for SpaceX’s defense business, and shareholder votes. The report also mentioned SpaceX’s capital needs for satellite AI and that Tesla is putting big money into robotaxis and Optimus robots.
Tesla is under pressure on the robotaxi front beyond just deal making. Reuters said last week the company launched its robotaxi service in Miami as Elon Musk keeps shifting focus from EVs to AI and robotics. Alphabet’s Waymo and Amazon’s Zoox are also growing their autonomous ride-hailing footprint. Reuters Waymo is now adding San Diego, Las Vegas, Denver and Tampa, Investor’s Business Daily said Wednesday, expanding its lead in the space.
So for investors, this trade is about two ideas: a call on Tesla’s rebound and a play on whether Musk chooses to bring more of his companies together. There are new delivery figures on the Tesla side. The consolidation angle still has no deal on the table.
