Micron (NASDAQ:MU) Shares Jump 8.5% as Investors Eye Major Tech Spending Update

Micron stock declines as DRAM market feels impact from CXMT expansion

NEW YORK, July 27, 2026, 15:02 EDT – Shares of Micron slipped as new competition from CXMT heightened concerns over DRAM price pressure, weighing on the market.

  • Micron Technology, Inc. dropped 4.3% to $881.60 in late afternoon trading. U.S. markets continued trading.
  • CXMT Corp ended the session up 466% compared to its offer price, putting its market capitalization at $487.73 billion.
  • Micron’s drop wiped out nearly $45.0 billion in value, which is approximately 5.2 times the IPO proceeds raised by CXMT.

Micron’s stock fell on Monday as investors assessed the impact of a new, well-financed DRAM competitor from China. Shares opened at $933.71 and reached a low of $855.67.

The main point of contention is pricing power. Micron’s recent DRAM revenue increase was driven mainly by elevated selling prices rather than a rise in shipment volume.

Micron stock declines as DRAM market feels impact from CXMT expansion

The most recent drop has wiped out approximately $45.0 billion. CXMT secured $8.6 billion from its listing in Shanghai. This means Micron’s market value fell by about $5.20 for each dollar its competitor managed to raise.

Initial estimate: Roughly 90% of Micron’s recent quarter-on-quarter DRAM sales growth was driven by pricing. DRAM sales were up 67%, with average prices advancing in the low-60% range. Bit shipments rose by only a low-single-digit percentage.

Investor measureMicronCXMT
Monday share moveDropped 4.3% to $881.60Surged 466% to 49 yuan
Equity value$1.009 trillion$487.73 billion
Capital signalRoughly $45.0 billion wiped out$8.6 billion raised in IPO
Revenue signalThird quarter revenue reached $41.46 billion Projects first-half revenue between 110 billion and 120 billion yuan

The strong market reaction stems from the sector’s sensitivity to price. Even a slight drop in expected future DRAM prices can more than offset minor increases in shipment volumes.

Short-term factors are still favorable. “The memory market remains tight with price increases expected to continue through the end of 2027,” TrendForce analyst Ellie Wang said. Reuters

CXMT’s initial trading did not represent true price discovery. Just 6.73% of its expanded share capital was available for free trading. This small free float probably intensified demand and trading activity.

The risk from competition remains significant. CXMT is constructing facilities that may boost capacity to over 600,000 wafers per month. According to a source with knowledge of the plans, that production could surpass Micron’s capacity by 2030, Reuters reported.

CXMT lags behind top competitors in advanced AI memory, with its high-bandwidth memory tech trailing by around two generations. Export controls further constrain the company’s ability to obtain cutting-edge lithography tools.

Micron faced the challenge with robust margins. Revenue for the fiscal third quarter stood at $41.46 billion, and GAAP net income amounted to $28.24 billion. The gross margin increased to 85%. Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra described this as “the strategic value of memory in the AI era.” Micron Technology

The immediate outlook is now influenced by major technology clients. Their earnings reports this week will gauge if AI infrastructure investment remains strong enough to drive memory demand.

Risks: CXMT may accelerate its conventional DRAM output more quickly than anticipated, which could weigh on Micron’s margin gains led by pricing. Still, the risk could be delayed by export restrictions and CXMT’s lag in HBM technology.

For Micron shareholders, the scale-up of CXMT’s production is more significant than its initial valuation. Monday’s decline in shares anticipated a future increase in supply, rather than signaling an immediate drop in memory supply tightness.

What is causing Micron shares to decline during U.S. trading on Monday?

Micron shares were last down around 4.2% at $882 at 2:49 Eastern, after moving between $855.67 and $957.46 in volatile trading. The drop tracked broad-based declines in technology and semiconductor names. The PHLX Semiconductor Index had earlier lost 3.9%, marking a third loss in a row. Sentiment was weighed by upcoming technology earnings reports and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. Additionally, CXMT’s Chinese listing fueled renewed concerns about longer-term memory market competition. MarketWatch

Did the recent drop in Micron shares lower their valuation?

Micron was valued at roughly $1.01 trillion at $882 per share. The stock traded at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of about 20, based on a trailing EPS of $44.17. Shares were about 30% under the $1,255 peak from the past 52 weeks. Using Micron’s $31 non-GAAP EPS midpoint on an annualized basis results in a price-to-earnings multiple close to 7.1. However, that calculation relies on the assumption that record margins continue. How sustainable this level is remains uncertain. MarketWatch

How robust were the most recent quarter and the forecast for the fourth quarter?

Fiscal third-quarter revenue was $41.46 billion, up 74% from the prior quarter. Non-GAAP earnings per share totaled $25.11, and the gross margin reached 84.9%. Micron’s outlook for the fourth quarter is revenue of $50 billion, plus or minus $1 billion, with an expected gross margin near 86% and non-GAAP EPS at $31. The midpoint of the revenue guidance indicates 21% sequential growth, but the upcoming quarter is 14 weeks long, compared to the usual 13. Adjusted for weeks, growth at the midpoint is about 12%. SEC

Does HBM4 provide sufficient growth to justify Micron’s AI valuation?

Micron reported that HBM4 12-high is moving to mass production at double the pace of HBM3E. The company has already delivered over $1 billion in HBM4-related revenue. High-volume deliveries are in progress for the main customer’s platform, and qualification samples have been supplied to multiple other clients. Data-center revenue topped $25 billion, accounting for over 60% of the company’s sales for the quarter. Micron anticipates beginning HBM4E volume manufacturing in calendar 2027.

Are all-time high memory prices nearing their peak?

DRAM prices increased by a little over 60% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter. NAND prices surged by about 80%, considerably outpacing growth in bit shipments. DRAM bit shipments rose by a small single-digit percentage, while NAND bit shipments increased by a mid-single digit percentage. As a result, revenue gains were largely attributed to pricing and shifts in product mix. Micron’s gross margin for the fourth quarter is still guided at 86%. However, management cautions that price gains are expected to slow significantly. The projection of supply tightness extending past 2027 is Micron’s outlook and not assured.

Do the extended customer agreements at Micron mitigate the traditional risks associated with memory cycles?

Micron entered into 16 take-or-pay contracts, most extending through 2030. These deals account for about 20% of DRAM volume and a third of NAND volume. Fourteen of the agreements represent nearly $100 billion in minimum price revenue. Customers have committed $22 billion, with deposits comprising around $18 billion. Those deposits are classified as financing cash and will be returned to customers in the future. While some contract prices are still tied to the market, this setup diminishes cyclicality but doesn’t remove it entirely.

Does Micron have the ability to support aggressive capital spending while maintaining balance sheet strength?

Micron projects fiscal 2026 capital expenditures near $27 billion. Capital spending in the fourth quarter is forecast to reach around $10 billion. Free cash flow in the third quarter hit a record $18.3 billion. Cash and investments at the quarter’s close totaled $30.2 billion. Debt was reduced to $5.7 billion, resulting in net cash of $24.4 billion. For fiscal 2027, Micron anticipates quarterly spending will surpass the fourth quarter’s figure. The company did not repurchase shares in Q3 and plans to increase capital returns after December 9.

How significant is the challenge posed by China’s CXMT to Micron?

CXMT secured approximately $8.6 billion through the largest IPO in Asia in 2026. The stock finished trading on Monday up 466% from its offer price. The initial public offering valued the company at close to $488 billion, providing significant capital for further growth. Analysts say CXMT remains about one generation behind top memory makers. U.S. export curbs continue to restrict some cutting-edge manufacturing tools. This points to near-term headwinds in standard DRAM over high-bandwidth memory, though this assessment may shift as technology evolves. Reuters

Which developments could impact Micron’s stock in the week ahead?

The Federal Reserve holds its meeting July 28-29, with a policy decision due Wednesday afternoon. Earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple are also expected this week. Their capital expenditure strategies are set to influence projections for AI memory needs. Independent calendars currently list September 23 as Micron’s next earnings release, but mark the date as unconfirmed. In the meantime, Micron’s daily stock action may be led by semiconductor-index shifts. Federal Reserve

Roman Perkowski is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and macroeconomic trends. A graduate of the Cracow University of Economics, he previously worked in investment research and corporate finance. His coverage helps readers understand the key forces driving global financial markets and emerging industries. Follow Roman Perkowski on Google News.

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