Nokia (HEL:NOKIA) Shares Climb with €2.8 Billion in AI Deals Set for Financing Scrutiny
28 July 2026
2 mins read

Nokia (HEL:NOKIA) Shares Climb with €2.8 Billion in AI Deals Set for Financing Scrutiny

HELSINKI, July 28, 2026, 12:04 EEST

  • Nokia shares were last up roughly 1% at €8.01 as trading opened in Helsinki.
  • Three insiders reported purchases totaling 165,293 securities in Helsinki and New York.
  • Orders for AI and cloud reached 6.3 times Nokia’s quarterly revenue, with free cash flow still negative.

Shares in Nokia Oyj hovered around €8.01 by midday on Tuesday, up roughly 1%. The Nasdaq Helsinki exchange was operating as usual, with equity markets scheduled to close at 18:30 EEST. Intraday data are subject to revision.

The action provided little relief. Nokia stayed roughly 13% under its July 22 closing price of €9.166. The drop came after results released last Thursday.

Stock chart for HEL:NOKIA

The latest corporate signal from insider filings emerged Monday. On July 24, three insiders bought 165,293 securities. The two transactions denominated in euros amounted to approximately €872,612.

Pallavi Mahajan bought 62,000 securities listed in New York at a price of $9.55 per share, according to filings. The total value of the transaction reached $592,100. The documents did not disclose the reasons for the insider’s purchase.

Even so, insider purchase prices serve as a benchmark rather than a minimum. The average price for European acquisitions was around €8.44 to €8.45. On Tuesday, the share price stayed approximately 5% under those averages.

The main issue for investors revolves around conversion. In the second quarter, Nokia recorded €2.8 billion in AI and cloud orders. This figure represented 6.3 times its AI and cloud revenue for the quarter.

Investor measureQ2 2026Comparison
Group net sales€4.815 billion8% higher compared to previous year
AI-and-cloud sales€446 million105% higher; accounts for 9.3% of group sales
AI-and-cloud orders€2.8 billionEqual to 6.3 times the quarter’s sales
Expected 12-month conversionAbout €1.4 billionEquivalent to 3.1 times Q2 AI-and-cloud sales
Comparable operating profit€434 millionGrew by 18%; 13.6% above LSEG consensus
Reported operating result€50 million lossCompared with €147 million profit in preceding year
Free cash flow€732 million outflowRepresents 1.7 times the comparable operating profit

Derived ratios are based on figures reported by the company. The conversion number represents an estimate from management.

Management anticipates that approximately half of these orders will turn into revenue over the next 12 months, representing nearly €1.4 billion, depending on delivery timelines. This figure is equivalent to over three quarters of the company’s present AI and cloud revenue.

AI and cloud sales accounted for just 9.3% of total group revenue, but were more than twice as high compared to the same period last year. Overall group revenue increased by 8%, reaching €4.815 billion.

Profit indicators gave mixed signals. Comparable operating profit increased by 18% to €434 million, surpassing the €382 million consensus forecast from LSEG by nearly 14%.

Nokia posted a €50 million loss from its reported operations. Restructuring costs totaled €390 million in the quarter. The company had previously posted a €147 million operating profit in the same period a year prior.

Cash flow reflected execution challenges. Free cash flow stood at negative €732 million, even as comparable profit rose. Nokia pointed to working capital, restructuring, and capital expenditures as factors.

Nokia’s full-year outlook lift was due to technical adjustments, not underlying performance. The company shifted its comparable operating profit forecast to a range of €2.1 billion to €2.6 billion, following the reclassification of two units as discontinued.

Nokia anticipates third-quarter sales will increase by 3%-7% from the previous quarter. The company projects comparable operating profit to stay roughly unchanged. Executives predict a more substantial growth in the fourth quarter.

Supply continues to pose challenges in the short term. “Demand remains strong, while supply continues to be the main industry constraint,” Chief Executive Justin Hotard said. Nokia Corporation | Nokia

Risks: Delays in converting backlog may result from component shortages and increased input costs. Nokia forecasts restructuring cash outflows of €700 million-€800 million in 2026. There is a possibility that customer investment in AI infrastructure could slow.

Nokia is scheduled to announce its third-quarter results on October 22. Market attention is expected to centre on backlog delivery and cash flow. A strong order intake on its own may not satisfy investors this time.

Where is Nokia’s share price following the latest sell-off?

Nokia shares in Helsinki were at €8.11 at 11:33 EEST Tuesday, rising 2.24%. The NYSE ADR ended Monday at $9.28, up 1.98%. Shares in Helsinki are still roughly 46% under their €15.00 52-week high. The ADR reports a 46.8% decline from its $17.45 high. The ADR is still about 43% above its level at the start of 2026. Google

Did Nokia outperform analysts’ forecasts with its second-quarter results?

Profit stood out as the main highlight in Nokia’s quarterly results. Second-quarter net sales rose to €4.815 billion, up 8% on a reported basis and 9% in constant currency. Comparable operating profit climbed 18% to €434 million, surpassing the LSEG consensus forecast of €382 million by about 14%. Comparable diluted EPS came in at €0.07, with the operating margin advancing to 9.0%. Nokia Corporation | Nokia

Has Nokia actually increased its full-year profit forecast?

The only significant alteration was in the accounting presentation. The range was adjusted to €2.1 billion–€2.6 billion from €2.0 billion–€2.5 billion. Nokia stated that its operational outlook was unchanged. The €100 million adjustment resulted from two businesses being classified as discontinued operations. Management continues to anticipate profit slightly above the new €2.35 billion midpoint. Nokia Corporation | Nokia

What role do AI and cloud demand currently play for Nokia?

Second quarter sales to AI and cloud clients totaled €446 million, an increase of 105%, accounting for approximately 9.3% of Nokia’s total group sales for the quarter. New orders rose to €2.8 billion, or about 6.3 times the quarterly sales figure for AI and cloud. Nokia anticipates that roughly half of these orders will be recognized as revenue within the next twelve months. Supply limitations are currently the main factor hindering faster order conversion. Production in San Jose is set to ramp up in the fourth quarter, while capacity in Pennsylvania will grow tenfold beginning in the third quarter. These capacity expansions are primarily intended to support projected demand in 2027 and 2028. Nokia Corporation | Nokia

What is Nokia’s most significant revenue-driving business?

Network Infrastructure was the main driver, posting a 12% rise in sales to €2.037 billion. Optical Networks advanced 20%, while IP Networks increased by 16%. The segment’s operating profit climbed to €166 million from €117 million, lifting its operating margin to 8.1% from 6.4%. Sales for Mobile Infrastructure were up 6% to €2.680 billion, but the segment’s margin eased to 11.6% from 12.2%. Nokia Corporation | Nokia

What can investors anticipate in the third quarter?

Nokia forecasts Q3 sales will be up 3%–7% compared to Q2, pointing to a range of about €4.96 billion–€5.15 billion, based on Q2 sales figures. Comparable operating profit is anticipated to stay close to the Q2 figure of €434 million. Nokia attributed this to the timing of software revenue recognition. The company projects profit growth will become significant in the fourth quarter. Nokia Corporation | Nokia

What caused Nokia’s stock to drop following its better-than-expected earnings?

Nokia’s ADR was down 5.35% on Thursday, then slid a further 6.47% on Friday. The stock trailed broader markets both days, with concerns centering on stable operational guidance, continued negative cash flow, and ongoing supply constraints. Deutsche Bank lowered its price target to €11.50 but maintained a Buy rating. UBS cut its target to €9.65 and set Neutral, while Barclays reduced its target to €8 with an Underweight stance. These varied price targets highlight a sharp divide over the company’s AI valuation premium. MarketWatch

Is Nokia’s cash situation raising concerns?

Cash generation represented the weakest performance among major financial lines in Q2. Free cash flow stood at a negative €0.7 billion. Net working capital used €980 million, factoring in both inventory and receivables. Net cash declined from €3.8 billion to around €2.8 billion. Nokia maintains a full-year free-cash-flow conversion target of 55%–75%. Restructuring charges have reached €800 million, and projected cash outflows are estimated at €700 million–€800 million.

Is Nokia’s present valuation considered high?

Nokia was valued at about €46.5 billion with its shares at €8.11. Google Finance listed its trailing P/E ratio at close to 64. Earnings figures were affected by significant restructuring costs. Adjusting for €2.8 billion in net cash puts the enterprise value at around €43.7 billion. With the midpoint of earnings guidance at €2.35 billion, enterprise value represents approximately 18.6 times operating profit — not a typical earnings ratio. The company’s valuation remains highly reliant on ongoing AI expansion. Google

What factors may impact Nokia’s share price in the coming week?

Three company insiders reported buying shares on July 24. Timo Ihamuotila acquired 60,000 shares at approximately €8.45 each. Patrik Hammarén purchased 43,293 shares for €8.442 each. Pallavi Mahajan obtained 62,000 ADRs at a price of $9.55. The ex-dividend date for the €0.04 payout is July 28, with payment set for August 6. Nokia is set to release its next results on October 22. Until then, changes to analyst forecasts and trends in AI sector sentiment are expected to be the key near-term trading catalysts. Nokia Corporation | Nokia

Mateusz Kaczmarek is a financial and technology journalist at TS2.tech, covering stocks, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and global market developments. A graduate of the Poznań University of Economics and Business, he previously worked in financial analysis before moving into business journalism. His reporting focuses on technology companies, market trends and the forces shaping global investment markets. Follow Mateusz Kaczmarek on Google News.

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