NEW YORK, August 1, 2026, 16:05 EDT
- Bitcoin was last at $62,473, slipping 0.7%. Cryptocurrency markets stayed open as U.S. spot ETF trading paused for the weekend.
- Bitcoin rose roughly 7.5% in July, while U.S. spot funds attracted just $172.8 million in total, according to aggregated daily flows.
- Out of the past 13 Augusts since 2013, nine saw declines, with a median return of minus 7.49%.
Bitcoin saw a notable divergence between its price and fund interest at the start of August. In July, the cryptocurrency rose about 7.5%, but U.S. spot ETFs saw inflows of only $172.8 million.
Analysis of Farside’s daily data indicates outflows totaled $6.92 billion in May and June, while just 2.5% of that amount was added back in July. The data points to diminished selling as more significant than widespread ETF demand.
Bitcoin was priced at $62,473 as of Saturday. The cryptocurrency fell roughly 2.9% across the past week. U.S. spot ETF trading had ended for the week.
July ended on a strong note, but the latest week has seen gains ease.
| Indicator | July 2026 | Weekend reading |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin return | Roughly +7.5% | Roughly -2.9% over a seven-day period |
| Bitcoin spot price | Under $63,000 on July 31 | $62,473 |
| Intraday range | — | $62,280–$63,083 |
| U.S. spot ETF net flow | +$172.8 million | Markets closed |
Market positioning is a key factor behind the stability. According to Bitfinex analysts, liquidations remained far under the typical $400 million-$500 million daily range for 2026 following the leverage reduction in late June. The drop in leveraged positions resulted in a decrease in automatic sell-offs.
Seasonal trends suggest a different perspective. Since 2013, bitcoin has posted an average return of 1.12% in August. The median return for the month stood at negative 7.49%, with just four Augusts closing higher.
The current distribution shows fewer bearish signals compared to the past four-year period, mainly due to the presence of significant outliers.
| August measure | Return or result |
|---|---|
| Mean, 2013–2025 | +1.12% |
| Median value, 2013–2025 | -7.49% |
| Number of positive Augusts | 4 of 13 |
| Number of negative Augusts | 9 of 13 |
| August 2022 result | -13.88% |
| August 2023 result | -11.29% |
| August 2024 result | -8.60% |
| August 2025 result | -6.49% |
| Average over last four years | -10.07% |
A single anomaly skews the historical average. Bitcoin surged by 65.32% in August 2017, whereas in August 2015 it fell by 18.67%. Across the most recent four Augusts, the average result was a 10.07% drop.
If bitcoin were to drop 7.49% from the dateline price, it would be close to $57,800. This is a mechanical calculation, not a prediction.
Bitget Wallet research analyst Lacie Zhang anticipates no clear direction for the market. “Base case is a choppy August with bitcoin range-bound unless real yields fall or ETF flows turn consistently positive again,” she told Reuters. CoinDesk
Fund flows provide a more straightforward assessment. Adding up Farside’s daily figures results in these monthly sums.
| Period | Net U.S. spot bitcoin ETF flow |
|---|---|
| May 2026 | -$2.406 billion |
| June 2026 | -$4.510 billion |
| July 2026 | +$172.8 million |
| May–July cumulative | -$6.743 billion |
| July inflow compared to May–June outflow | 2.5% |
The month closed on a negative note. On July 31, funds posted losses of $265.4 million, outweighing the previous session’s $233.1 million in inflows.
Investors face another key macroeconomic event in the coming week. The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29. Three members favored a 25 basis-point hike. July jobs figures are set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, August 7.
Risks: The seasonal dataset is limited. ETF flows may shift direction in a single session. Bitcoin could face additional pressure from rising real yields, a firmer dollar or sales linked to security concerns.
ETF flows on Monday will indicate if July’s momentum attracted additional investors. Continued inflows would reinforce the recovery, while a fresh pullback would highlight fragile demand for funds as a key vulnerability.
