US Stocks Begin August With Focused Gains Ahead of Employment Data

US Stocks Begin August With Focused Gains Ahead of Employment Data

NEW YORK, August 2, 2026, 13:05 EDT

  • The S&P 500 climbed 0.7% on Friday, even as losing stocks outpaced winners by a ratio of 1.3 to one.
  • The S&P equal-weight index gained 0.92% in July, while the standard index finished nearly unchanged.
  • U.S. July payroll figures are due Friday. According to a Reuters survey, economists expect 83,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.3%.

Wall Street’s rebound on Friday was less broad than the main indexes indicated. U.S. cash markets remain closed on Sunday. Regular trading is set to restart at 9:30 a.m. EDT on Monday.

Stock chart for INDEXSP:.INX

The S&P 500 gained 0.7%, but stocks falling outnumbered those rising by a ratio of 1.3 to one. On the Nasdaq, 131 stocks reached new lows compared to 52 new highs. Only a few major companies with strong earnings saw investor support, rather than the broader market.

IndexFriday closeFridayWeek2026
S&P 5007,489.72up 0.70%up 1.05%up 9.4%
Nasdaq Composite25,373.85up 1.00%up 1.59%up 9.2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average52,485.03up 0.53%up 1.0%up 9.2%
Russell 20002,931.34down 0.50%gained less than 0.1%up 18.1%

Reuters and AP provide Friday’s closing figures and weekly data. Year-to-date numbers are approximate.

The weekly report challenges the notion of a straightforward megacap narrative. Year-to-date, the Russell 2000 remains ahead, although it paused last week. Flows have expanded across sectors over recent months before tightening considerably during earnings season.

The second half of that signal comes in July. The S&P 500 equal-weight index rose 0.92%, compared to nearly flat performance for the standard index. The equal-weight index also marked a four-month winning streak.

Breadth measureLatest readingComparison
S&P decliners per advancer1.3Breadth negative on Friday
Nasdaq new highs / new lows52 / 131New lows outnumbered highs by 79
U.S. share volume20.6 billion20.5% above its 20-day average
Equal-weight S&P, July+0.92%Topped the standard index
Standard S&P 500, JulyRoughly flatNasdaq declined 3.2%

The volume premium uses Reuters’ figures of a 20.6-billion total and a 17.1-billion average.

Tech giants were in sharp focus on Friday. Amazon.com jumped as its cloud division posted faster growth. In contrast, Apple declined due to supply shortages affecting its forecast.

CompanyFriday moveMain market signal
Amazon.com +15.3%Achieved highest quarterly revenue rise in more than four years
Apple -7.4%Ongoing supply issues weighed on short-term outlook
Microsoft +3.0%Built further on Thursday’s advance of over 15%
Micron Technology -5.9%Fell after an initial increase of 6.4%

Reuters and AP provided updates on company actions and earnings influences.

“People had concerns that Amazon’s investments were merely moonshot spending,” said Jake Dollarhide, chief executive of Longbow Asset Management. Andy Jassy “put those fears to bed,” he said. Reuters

Momentum in the broader chip sector was subdued. The PHLX Semiconductor Index inched up 0.07% but is still trading over 20% under its closing peak from June 22.

Bonds are contending with earnings for influence. The 10-year Treasury yield ended around 4.71%, after reaching 4.747% earlier in the session—a peak not seen since January 2025. Brent crude finished at $87.93 per barrel.

Futures markets assigned close to a 65% probability to a rate hike in September. Core personal consumption inflation stood at 3.3% for June. This is still well above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.

Focus now moves from earnings to the labor market. July payrolls are forecast to increase by 83,000. A higher reading may push yields up and fuel speculation about tighter policy. The data will be published Friday at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

The earnings calendar will put various areas of the market to the test. Reports are expected from software, semiconductor, healthcare, industrial, and recently listed growth stocks.

DateEconomic releasesSelected company events
Monday, August 3Construction spending and ISM manufacturing, 10:00 a.m.; Federal Reserve loan survey, 2:00 p.m.Palantir Technologies , Q2 webcast at 5:00 p.m.
Tuesday, August 4Trade balance, 8:30 a.m.; JOLTS, 10:00 a.m.Caterpillar before market opens; SpaceX first quarterly report; Advanced Micro Devices after market close
Wednesday, August 5ISM services index, 10:00 a.m.Eli Lilly , earnings and call at 10:00 a.m.
Thursday, August 6Jobless claims and initial productivity, 8:30 a.m.
Friday, August 7July jobs data, 8:30 a.m.

All release times are in Eastern Time. Corporate dates are sourced from official investor relations statements and Reuters.

“The earnings picture overall should provide stability,” said Yung-Yu Ma of PNC Financial Services Group . Over a quarter of S&P 500 firms are set to release results. Adjusted quarterly earnings are running 29.3% higher than a year ago. Reuters

Risks: Robust payroll numbers, a further increase in oil prices, or disappointing AI investment returns may push yields higher and undo Friday’s sharp rally. Conversely, weaker labor figures and widespread earnings outperformance could fuel further gains outside of megacap stocks.

Breadth continues to serve as the key signal. An additional rise in the index with most stocks declining would highlight ongoing concentration risk. Broader participation from equal-weight stocks and small caps would signal a more sustainable rotation.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

What level of upside is Wall Street still projecting?
A Reuters poll in May predicted the S&P 500 would finish the year at 7,620. With Friday’s close at 7,489.72, the estimate suggests about 1.7% potential gains. The poll took place before most Q2 earnings. Goldman and Citi subsequently projected 8,000 and 8,100, pointing to upside of 6.8% to 8.1%. Reuters
Does valuation continue to hinder additional increases?
The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 19.6, under its five-year average of 19.9, but still higher than its ten-year average of 19.0. The two-year Treasury yield finished Friday at 4.28%. If inflation continues to keep yields high, valuations may come under pressure. FactSet Insight
Will earnings continue to drive the rally?
With 61% of results in, 86% of companies surpassed earnings forecasts. Second-quarter blended growth hit 47.4%, marking the highest since Q2 2021. Alphabet and Amazon drove the headline figure higher; without them, growth still reached 28.8%. Analysts forecast 27.4% growth in Q3 and 25.2% in Q4. FactSet Insight
Is the Federal Reserve likely to increase rates in September?
The Fed left interest rates at 3.50%–3.75%, with three officials backing an increase. Core PCE inflation for June was steady at 3.3%, staying above the 2% target. Futures on Friday indicated about a 64% chance of a rate hike in September. Banks predict anywhere from three raises to two reductions during 2026. Federal Reserve
Is it possible for economic growth to decelerate without negatively impacting stocks?
Gross domestic product grew at 1.5% in the second quarter, down from 2.1%. Private domestic final sales, however, increased 3.9%, signaling more resilient demand. July jobs data is due August 7. Economists forecast 83,000 new positions and a 4.3% jobless rate. A strong report may boost rate-hike expectations. A weak reading could renew concerns about growth. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Is leadership in the market expanding sufficiently?
The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index extended its winning streak to four consecutive months. However, on Friday, declining stocks outpaced those advancing by a ratio of 1.3 to one. The Nasdaq dropped 3.2% over July. The semiconductor index remains over 20% beneath its June 22 peak. Market breadth is seeing gains, but leadership continues to show volatility. Reuters

Iwona Majkowska is a financial markets journalist at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, artificial intelligence and technology. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics, she previously worked in equity research and financial analysis before focusing on market reporting. Her daily coverage helps investors follow major developments across U.S. and global markets. Follow Iwona Majkowska on Google News.

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