NEW YORK, August 2, 2026, 18:10 EDT — U.S. cash equity trading ended.
- Supermicro finished Friday at $28.40, rising 2.42% on the day. Despite the gain, the stock declined 5.65% over the week.
- Preliminary: Fourth-quarter margin is projected at 15%-17% with sales approaching $11 billion, indicating gross profit between $1.65 billion and $1.87 billion.
- Operating cash outflow totaled $6.6 billion in the previous quarter. Full fourth-quarter figures will be released on August 11.
Super Micro opens on Monday showing improved profit prospects but a softer market trend. Early margin estimates suggest a quarterly gross profit increase of between 62% and 84%. Shares nevertheless dropped 5.6% in the previous week.
The discrepancy provides investors with a clear benchmark. Following the $6.6 billion operating outflow, converting revenue to cash has become more significant than revenue growth.
U.S. cash markets did not operate on Sunday. Trading on Nasdaq will restart its usual session on Monday at 9:30 a.m. EDT.
Friday’s rebound was not enough to offset losses for the week. Supermicro lagged behind both Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. NYSE:HPE and NVIDIA Corp. NASDAQ:NVDA. Dell Technologies Inc. NYSE:DELL declined further.
The tape from last week — July 24 through July 31
| Security or index | July 31 close | Friday move | Weekly move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Super Micro | $28.40 | up 2.42% | down 5.65% |
| Dell Technologies | $405.37 | up 0.14% | down 7.34% |
| Hewlett Packard Enterprise | $47.90 | up 1.61% | up 0.44% |
| NVIDIA | $200.75 | up 2.93% | down 2.94% |
| S&P 500 | 7,489.72 | up 0.70% | up 1.05% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,373.85 | up 1.00% | up 1.59% |
Trading activity did not strongly confirm the move. On Friday, approximately 35 million Supermicro shares were traded, representing about 65% of the stock’s 65-day average volume.
The earnings revision is significant. Management anticipates revenue will be close to the lower end of its projected $11 billion to $12.5 billion range. Gross margin is projected at 15% to 17%. Both figures are initial and have not yet been audited.
Initial Q4 earnings summary
| Measure | Q3 reported | Earlier Q4 guide | Q4 preliminary or illustrative | Change from Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.243 billion | $11.0–$12.5 billion | About $11.0 billion | +7.4% |
| GAAP gross margin | 9.9% | 8.2%–8.4% | 15%–17% | +510–710 basis points |
| Gross profit | $1.019 billion | $0.902–$0.924 billion | $1.650–$1.870 billion | +62% to +84% |
*Sample calculations are based on revenue of $11 billion.
Revenue close to the lower end would be roughly 5.7% beneath the $11.67 billion LSEG consensus estimate. Still, a favorable product and customer mix forecast is seen as more than making up for the shortfall at the gross profit level.
The balance sheet highlights why the market remains cautious. Supermicro reported higher gross profit in Q3, yet its cash reserves declined significantly.
Cash conversion dashboard
| Measure | Q2 FY2026 | Q3 FY2026 | Sequential change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.682 billion | $10.243 billion | -19.2% |
| Gross profit | $0.799 billion | $1.019 billion | +27.6% |
| Operating cash flow | $(0.024) billion | $(6.600) billion | $6.576 billion lower |
| Quarter-end cash | $4.091 billion | $1.290 billion | -68.5% |
| Inventory | $10.595 billion | $11.103 billion | +4.8% |
| Bank debt and convertible notes | $4.878 billion | $8.773 billion | +79.9% |
Inventory increased by 4.8% while quarterly sales dropped 19.2%. At the same time, debt and convertible notes climbed almost 80%.
The working-capital challenge was underscored by the financing package in June. Supermicro revealed $7 billion in equity and equity-linked financing, aiming to support the purchase of components for around $39 billion in AI-server orders placed by over 20 customers.
The order backlog has grown in the period since. Supermicro reported that fourth-quarter orders topped $60 billion, with shipments set for upcoming quarters.
The new product launch strengthens the capacity outlook. Supermicro unveiled ten AI rack models with high density on July 30. The lineup features liquid cooling options and racks capable of supporting more than 5,500 pounds.
Chief Executive Charles Liang stated: “Our manufacturing scale enables us to deliver up to 3,000 of these advanced racks per month.” The company added that as many as 2,000 of those could be liquid-cooled racks. Super Micro Computer
The next sector update is expected Tuesday, when Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. NASDAQ:AMD will announce its fiscal second-quarter earnings after markets close. Supermicro will release its results the following week.
Upcoming catalysts
| Date | Event | Main investor question |
|---|---|---|
| August 3 | Nasdaq standard trade resumes | Will SMCI’s Friday recovery extend |
| August 4 | AMD posts results post market close | Focus on AI accelerator sales and margin outlook |
| August 11 | Supermicro announces results at 5 p.m. EDT | Investors look at margin strength, cash flow, and timing for orders |
Risks: Portions of Supermicro’s $60 billion order backlog may not be secured, potentially subject to cancellation or postponement. The board is additionally examining deals linked to reported export-control concerns, which might impact outlooks or previously reported results.
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