NEW YORK, August 5, 2026, 06:07 EDT
- Eli Lilly rose 2.2% in premarket trading, rebounding following an 8.6% drop over the past five sessions.
- Initial figures show Mounjaro and Zepbound accounted for 65.7% of revenue during the quarter.
- Lilly is set to report results on Wednesday, with its investor call scheduled for 10:00 a.m. EDT.
Eli Lilly and Company NYSE:LLY is set for a tight earnings test on Wednesday. Initial projections indicate that Mounjaro and Zepbound will account for about 98% of the revenue increase in the second quarter.
The combined sales of the two drugs are expected to reach $13.54 billion, making up approximately 65.7% of Eli Lilly’s forecasted quarterly revenue of $20.62 billion.
At the dateline, the NYSE had finished its regular session and premarket trading had begun. According to WSJ data, Lilly was at $1,140.48 as of 5:41 a.m. EDT, marking a 2.2% increase.
The share price does not reflect expectations for a typical quarter. At Tuesday’s close, Lilly was valued at $1.05 trillion with a trailing earnings multiple of 40.2 times. Options markets suggested the stock could move about 6% following the results.
Novo Nordisk NYSE:NVO is the most comparable case. The company’s U.S.-listed shares dropped 6% on Tuesday even though it raised its full-year guidance.
Data from WSJ highlight the difference in valuation. The weekly returns listed below are based on closing prices.
| Market measure | Eli Lilly | Novo Nordisk |
|---|---|---|
| August 4 close | $1,115.68 | $44.28 |
| August 4 move | -0.5% | -6.0% |
| Prior week, July 24–31 | -3.9% | -3.5% |
| Current week through August 4 | -2.9% | -5.9% |
| Latest premarket indication | +2.2% | +1.7% |
| Trailing P/E | 40.2 times | 10.4 times |
| Market value | $1.05 trillion | $210.2 billion |
Visible Alpha’s initial projections, alongside Lilly’s results from the previous year, generate the growth bridge displayed below. The figure for “All other revenue” is determined by subtracting other components. Investopedia
| Revenue item | Q2 2025 actual | Q2 2026 preliminary | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $15.56 billion | $20.62 billion | up 32.5% |
| Mounjaro | $5.20 billion | $8.88 billion | up 70.8% |
| Zepbound | $3.38 billion | $4.66 billion | up 37.8% |
| All other revenue | $6.98 billion | $7.08 billion | up 1.5% |
Mounjaro and Zepbound are projected to contribute $4.96 billion of additional revenue compared to last year. Lilly’s total revenue growth is expected to reach $5.06 billion. As a result, the franchise accounts for roughly 98.0% of the anticipated increase.
Sales concentration increased significantly, with the two brands accounting for 55.2% of revenue a year ago and reaching 64.8% last quarter.
| Period | Mounjaro plus Zepbound | Total revenue | Revenue share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 actual | $8.58 billion | $15.56 billion | 55.2% |
| Q1 2026 actual | $12.82 billion | $19.80 billion | 64.8% |
| Q2 2026 preliminary | $13.54 billion | $20.62 billion | 65.7% |
This puts an emphasis on growth quality. During the first quarter, volume increased by 65%, but a decline in realized prices resulted in a 13% reduction. Gross margin slipped by 0.6 percentage points to reach 81.9%.
Lilly projects annual revenue to range between $82 billion and $85 billion. Raising guidance would reinforce projections that volume growth is exceeding pricing challenges.
| Reporting hurdle | Current benchmark |
|---|---|
| Q2 revenue | $20.62 billion, preliminary |
| Mounjaro sales | $8.88 billion, preliminary |
| Zepbound sales | $4.66 billion, preliminary |
| 2026 revenue guidance | $82 billion–$85 billion |
| Options-implied stock move | Roughly 6% |
| Investor conference call | August 5, 10:00 a.m. EDT |
Novo’s response highlights that meeting projections alone may not be enough. “Just in line with expectations,” said Markus Manns, portfolio manager at Union Investment, referring to oral Wegovy. Reuters
Novo stated its CagriSema candidate achieved similar weight loss to Lilly’s tirzepatide. However, it did not surpass tirzepatide in controlling blood sugar, maintaining Lilly’s standing in clinical performance while increasing anticipation for future data updates.
Pipeline momentum increased this week as Lilly granted restricted early access to its experimental drug retatrutide for specific patients. The company is targeting an FDA submission in the first quarter of 2027. The programme could create future opportunities, rather than boosting present revenues.
During the week ending August 12, attention centers on Wednesday’s results and conference call as the primary confirmed catalyst. Market participants are set to concentrate on guidance, net pricing, capacity, and margins instead of just headline demand.
Risks: More rapid net price declines could outpace gains in prescriptions. Constraints on supply, higher launch costs, sluggish non-obesity market performance, or an underwhelming guidance revision may also weigh on the premium valuation.
Quarterly revenue alone does not tell the full story. Lilly needs to demonstrate that a leading franchise can continue expanding while maintaining margins and not overshadowing other assets in its lineup.
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