NEW YORK, August 8, 2026, 10:10 EDT
- U.S. markets are shut. Ondas ended Friday at $9.11, up 21.6% over the week.
- Wall Street is forecasting second-quarter revenue of $67.97 million. Achieving the $525 million full-year goal would require a significant acceleration in the latter half.
- Ondas Inc. will release results on August 13 ahead of the market open. The conference call is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. EDT.
Ondas Inc. NASDAQ:ONDS heads into the weekend following a 21.6% gain over the week. The main issue remains execution. Shareholders are looking for its newly acquired units to achieve the significant second-half growth projected in company guidance.
Analysts project $67.97 million in revenue for the second quarter. With Q1 revenue at $50.1 million, this would mean $406.9 million remains for the back half of the year. Ondas aims for revenue of at least $525 million in 2026.
This means third and fourth quarter revenue must average $203.5 million, nearly threefold the estimate for Q2. The projection will stay provisional until Thursday’s announcement.
Initial 2026 revenue breakdown
| Revenue measure | Amount | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 revenue | $50.10 million | Reported |
| Q2 revenue | $67.97 million | Analyst estimate |
| First-half revenue estimate | $118.07 million | Preliminary |
| Revenue goal for full year | At least $525.00 million | Company guidance |
| Revenue needed in second half | $406.93 million | Preliminary |
| Average required per quarter in H2 | $203.47 million | Preliminary |
| Needed H2 quarterly rate vs Q2 forecast | 3.0 times | Preliminary |
Figures are based on Ondas’ first-quarter performance, its present guidance minimum, and the consensus estimate for the second quarter.
Timing is crucial. DZYNE was acquired on July 2, following the close of the quarter on June 30. This indicates its consolidated revenue will begin in the third quarter, not the second. The full-year forecast accounts for both DZYNE and Omnisys.
Ondas finished Friday at $9.11, gaining 4.23%. Trading volume was 72.9 million shares, under the 98.3 million average reported by Google Finance. U.S. markets did not open on Saturday.
Week-on-week market comparison
| Stock or index | Friday move | Weekly move |
|---|---|---|
| Ondas Inc. NASDAQ:ONDS | up 4.2% | up 21.6% |
| Red Cat Holdings Inc. NASDAQ:RCAT | up 6.2% | up 22.3% |
| Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. NASDAQ:KTOS | up 5.9% | up 30.4% |
| Redwire Corp. NYSE:RDW | up 14.9% | up 57.7% |
| Russell 2000 index | up 1.1% | up 3.5% |
Stock returns are based on closing prices from July 31 and August 7.
The comparison moderates the company’s individual narrative. Ondas outperformed small-cap stocks yet trailed two defense sector rivals. Red Cat’s performance was closely aligned. This trend indicates that wider interest in defense autonomy contributed to the stock’s rise.
Ondas provided three new catalysts. On Friday, Sentrycs was chosen for Jacksonville Jaguars events. The AFRL granted over $6 million on Thursday. The U.S. Army placed an order on Wednesday valued at more than $50 million.
Comparison of recent deployments and contracts
| Date | Customer or programme | Ondas business | Disclosed value | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars anti-drone security | Sentrycs | Not disclosed | Venue rollout |
| August 6 | AFRL Long-Range Grasshopper | DZYNE | Over $6 million | Development deal |
| August 5 | U.S. Army Lethal Unmanned Systems | Mistral | Above $50 million | Production contract |
The Army contract pushed total Mistral programme awards past $240 million. Manufacturing for the first award is planned for third-quarter shipment.
Chief Executive Eric Brock commented following the Army order, “Our focus now is on execution.” That concise statement sets the stage for the upcoming earnings review. Ondas Inc.
Gross margin in Q1 stood at 49%, though the operating loss increased to $42.7 million. The adjusted EBITDA loss totaled $10.9 million. Ondas noted that fluctuations in product mix may continue to cause margin volatility.
All seven analysts tracked by Google Finance have buy ratings on the shares, with no dissenting views. The consensus price target stands at $19.57, representing a 114.8% premium to Friday’s closing price.
Analyst ratings
| Analyst | Firm | Recommendation | Action | Price target | Implied upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Siegmann | Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Reaffirmed | $18 | 97.6% | July 9 |
| Matthew Galinko | Maxim Group | Buy | Unchanged | $22 | 141.5% | July 8 |
| Amit Dayal | H.C. Wainwright | Buy | Reaffirmed | $25 | 174.4% | July 7 |
| Michael Latimore | Northland Securities | Buy | Unchanged | $18 | 97.6% | July 7 |
| Austin Bohlig | Needham | Buy | Reaffirmed | $19 | 108.6% | July 7 |
| Max Michaelis | Lake Street | Buy | Reaffirmed | $19 | 108.6% | July 6 |
| Timothy Horan | Oppenheimer | Buy | Unchanged | $16 | 75.6% | May 28 |
Targets and estimated returns are based on the $9.11 closing price listed by Google Finance.
Price targets alone do not resolve the execution issue. As of Friday’s close, Ondas was valued at $5.19 billion by the market, which is roughly 9.9 times the $525 million minimum revenue. This multiple is based on market capitalisation rather than enterprise value.
The key date next week is Thursday, August 13. Ondas is set to announce results ahead of the market open, with its conference call scheduled for 8:30 a.m. EDT. Investors are watching for Q3 revenue trends, any margin updates, and whether guidance holds. The main focus remains on backlog conversion.
Risks: Ondas is managing the integration of multiple acquisitions as system sales fluctuate. An 8-K filed on Friday set aside 20 million shares for inducement awards, representing 3.5% of outstanding shares, but this does not result in immediate dilution.
The market has already valued order flow. Thursday will need to demonstrate how rapidly those orders are recorded as revenue.
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