As of July 30. Market valuations are based on the most recent data, rounded to the nearest figure.
Ondas outperformed this chosen peer group. All peers gained as well, reducing the likelihood that the move was driven solely by company-specific factors.
The key issue relates to the ownership denominator. Shares added through recent acquisitions have significantly altered it.
BlackRock reported holding 38.13 million shares, representing a 7.2% stake, in its Schedule 13G filing dated July 29. The document cited June 30 as the event date.
When DZYNE’s current shares are deducted from the July 23 figure, the result is 529.86 million shares. BlackRock’s stake calculates to 7.196%, rounding to 7.2%.
Based on the complete July 23 total, the identical stake represents 6.69%, which is roughly 51 basis points less.
The document doesn’t cover trading activity after June 30. It details a routine holding with no intention to seek control.
Ondas completed its $200 million cash acquisition of DZYNE on July 2, and promptly issued 39,999,998 shares.
Share-count case
Total shares
BlackRock shares assumed
Effective stake
Position before inclusion of immediate DZYNE shares
529.86 million
38.13 million
7.20%
Disclosed count on July 23
569.86 million
38.13 million
6.69%
Pro forma as of January 4, 2027
614.86 million
38.13 million
6.20%
Estimates do not include any BlackRock trading activity or issuance of additional shares. The last scenario incorporates 44,999,998 contracted DZYNE shares.
An additional 44,999,998 shares are scheduled for release on January 4, 2027. If no other adjustments are made, this would raise BlackRock’s static holding to 6.20%.
The upcoming operational test is scheduled for August 13. Ondas is set to release its second-quarter earnings prior to an 8:30 a.m. EDT conference call.
The June quarter ended before DZYNE closed on July 2. As a result, consolidated results from DZYNE are expected to start appearing in the third quarter.
2026 revenue and valuation bridge
Amount
Investor comparison
Actual revenue in first quarter
$50.1 million
Initial basis
Guidance for company’s full-year
At least $525 million
Incorporates DZYNE and Omnisys
Revenue needed to reach target
$474.9 million
90.5% of projected goal
Average revenue required from Q2-Q4
$158.3 million
Represents 3.16 times Q1 figure
Current market cap as multiple of projected sales
8.2 times
Calculated from most recent outstanding shares
Pro forma market cap as multiple of projected sales
8.9 times
Accounts for planned DZYNE share issuance
Projections are based on company estimates. Valuation is calculated using Thursday’s closing price of $7.58, without factoring in debt or cash.
Ondas logged $50.1 million in sales in the first quarter, but must now generate $158.3 million each quarter until December to meet its revenue goal.
The average figure is 3.16 times higher than in the first quarter. DZYNE is projected to reach $191 million in 2026.
Eric Brock, Chief Executive, stated that DZYNE “significantly strengthens Ondas’ financial profile, adding substantial scale and revenue growth.” SEC
Profit quality continues to serve as a balancing factor. Gross margin for the first quarter stood at 49%, and the operating loss totaled $42.7 million.
The company posted an adjusted EBITDA loss of $10.9 million. Executives had anticipated that second-quarter losses would stay high and possibly reach their highest point.
The most recent disclosed shares indicate a value of $4.32 billion based on Thursday’s closing price. Including the upcoming DZYNE shares results in a fixed pro forma valuation of $4.66 billion. This amounts to 8.9 times projected sales.
Risks: Main risks include integration of the acquisition, uneven system sales, and ongoing operating losses. Planned stock issuances may result in additional dilution for current shareholders.
What is the current trading level of Ondas stock, and what does the momentum indicate?
ONDS was trading around $7.60 in premarket at 9:03 a.m. Eastern on July 31. The stock ended Thursday at $7.58, up 11.47% on the day. Despite this, shares remain down 22.34% in 2026 and have dropped 26.55% over the past three months. The one-year gain stands at 244.55%, with the price moving between $2.01 and $15.28 during that period. Volatility continues to be elevated. marketwatch.com
What factors likely contributed to the 11.47% rebound on Thursday?
No clear catalyst has been confirmed for Thursday’s significant rally. BlackRock’s July 29 filing revealed a 7.2% stake, equal to 38.13 million shares, but this was as of June 30, not acquired on Thursday. Ondas is part of both the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes, which could account for some of BlackRock’s holdings due to passive index investment. Ondas disclosed $70 million in orders over the prior four weeks. It remains unclear if these factors were behind Thursday’s rally. SEC
Is Ondas on track to achieve its $525 million revenue goal by 2026?
Revenue for the first quarter totaled $50.1 million, leaving $474.9 million required over the next three quarters. This means Ondas must average around $158.3 million per quarter from Q2 to Q4. DZYNE completed its closure on July 2, after the end of the second quarter, so Ondas will start to consolidate DZYNE’s finances in the third quarter. DZYNE projects $191 million in total revenue for 2026. That figure accounts for Omnisys but does not include the still-pending Cyberhawk deal. Pro forma backlog is reportedly $457 million, supporting growth prospects, though the timing for converting this backlog is uncertain. Ondas Inc.
What are the key points for investors to monitor in the August 13 earnings release?
Ondas will post second-quarter results on August 13 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The reporting period concluded June 30, prior to DZYNE closing on July 2. FactSet data shows analysts anticipate a loss of $0.10 per share. GAAP earnings may be heavily affected by warrant revaluations, making year-on-year comparisons less reliable. More closely watched metrics include revenue, gross margin, backlog, liquidity, and adjusted EBITDA. Management earlier indicated that Q2 adjusted EBITDA losses would probably represent the high point. Ondas Inc.
Has Ondas reached profitability at this point?
Revenue for the first quarter stood at $50.1 million, with gross profit at $24.7 million, resulting in a 49% gross margin. Operating loss totaled $42.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA was negative $10.9 million. GAAP profit of $361.3 million was largely due to accounting gains. Warrant revaluation contributed $389.5 million and deconsolidation provided an additional $51.5 million. As a result, conventional price-to-earnings ratios exaggerate true operating performance. Ondas Inc.
What is the current strength of the balance sheet following recent acquisitions?
As of March 31, liquidity stood at approximately $1.48 billion, factoring in short-term investments. The subsequent DZYNE acquisition consumed $200 million in cash along with around 85 million shares. The proposed $125 million Cyberhawk transaction is anticipated to be funded 95% with cash. These obligations outdate the March liquidity figure. Revised liquidity and cash burn details are expected in the August 13 filing. While balance-sheet capacity is still significant, acquisition expenditures are increasing. Ondas Inc.
What level of dilution can Ondas shareholders anticipate?
The number of outstanding shares increased from 469.1 million in March to around 569.9 million, marking a 21.5% rise over roughly four months. The DZYNE transaction includes an additional 45 million shares set for delivery by January 4, 2027. Following the deal, DZYNE sellers are projected to hold about 13.8% of Ondas. For per-share value to grow, revenue gains need to surpass share issuance. Ondas Inc.
Is a share price of around $7.60 considered high for Ondas?
Ondas has an equity value close to $4.32 billion based on current share prices. That represents about 8.2 times projected 2026 sales, using $525 million guidance. The valuation is steep while the company continues to post operating losses. It could decrease rapidly if acquired entities show strong growth into 2027. However, the multiple may shrink significantly if backlog conversion or profit margins fall short of expectations. Cash holdings reduce enterprise value, but today’s precise figure is unclear. marketwatch.com
What do Wall Street projections indicate for ONDS shares?
Currently, nine analysts have a Buy rating on ONDS, with no ratings at Hold or Sell. The consensus price target stands at $19.81, ranging from $16 to $25. This suggests an estimated 161% potential gain from $7.60. After the DZYNE deal, Needham reduced its price target from $23 to $19. The adjustment highlights how projections can change following significant acquisitions. Price targets represent expectations, not guarantees. marketwatch.com
Is Ondas’ exceptionally high short interest likely to spark a further squeeze?
As of July 15, short interest stood at 229.56 million shares, accounting for 43.91% of the reported public float. Positive developments could prompt short covering, amplifying daily price moves. This level of short positioning signals strong doubts over valuation, operational performance, and potential dilution. Short-interest figures are released with a lag and may reflect hedge or arbitrage activity. While a squeeze remains possible, it is not guaranteed. marketwatch.com
Jerzy Lewandowski is a senior markets editor at TS2.tech covering stocks, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and global financial markets. He studied economics at the University of Warsaw and previously worked in investment analysis before moving into financial journalism. His daily coverage focuses on the trends and events that matter most to investors worldwide. Follow Jerzy Lewandowski on Google News.
