SpaceX ended Thursday at $112.20, falling 0.3% after peaking at $118.93.
The contract suggests an average of approximately $88.9 million per Falcon 9 launch, covering 18 missions.
SpaceX will report its second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, August 4, following the market close.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. NASDAQ:SPCX starts Friday’s premarket following a $1.6 billion contract from the Space Force. Despite this, the stock’s initial advance on Thursday reversed, ending the day down 0.3% at $112.20.
The order amounts to a significant portion of the rocket division, making up 39.2% of that unit’s projected 2025 revenue. In comparison, the deal accounts for just 0.11% of SpaceX’s estimated $1.48 trillion market capitalization.
The investor test lies in that discrepancy. Falcon 9 keeps securing government contracts with funding. Market moves indicate investors are assigning much greater value to Starlink and artificial intelligence.
The Nasdaq’s main trading session was yet to open at the time of the dateline. Premarket activity takes place up to 9:30 a.m. EDT, at which point the regular market session begins and lasts until 4 p.m.
Price reference
Price
Change to Thursday close
Thursday close
$112.20
On the day: -0.3%
July 24 close
$115.07
-2.5%
June IPO price
$135.00
-16.9%
Post-IPO intraday high
$225.64
-50.3%
Record intraday low
$107.01
+4.9%
Figures reflect the last five trading sessions and significant levels since the IPO. Percentage moves are based on referenced figures.
The stock has now lost 50% of its value since its peak in June. It is still trading less than 5% above the record low hit on Tuesday. A new defense contract failed to maintain the rebound seen on Thursday.
The Space Force has awarded two task orders as part of its Phase 3 Lane 1 initiative. Under the orders, SpaceX will carry out 18 Falcon 9 launches from Vandenberg Space Force Base, with all missions set to be completed by the end of 2027.
“Sensing and targeting of airborne objects from space … are vital to the defense of our nation,” said Col. Eric Zarybnisky, the Space Force’s acting acquisition executive for space access. AFCEA
Contract measure
Value
Scale comparison
Orders for new launches
$1.60 billion
39.2% of 2025 Space revenue
Total Falcon 9 flights
18
$88.9 million per flight
Proportion of 2025 group revenue
—
8.6%
Portion of current equity value
—
0.11%
Pentagon contracts revealed in 2026
At least $7.0 billion
37.5% of 2025 group revenue
Initial estimates are based on contract nominal values and disclosed 2025 figures. These are comparative measures of scale rather than revenue projections.
Revenue will be recorded as services are performed and milestones are met. The $1.6 billion cannot be counted as sales right away. However, its scale highlights the contribution of Falcon 9 to the group’s government order book.
SpaceX secured at least $7 billion in Pentagon contracts during this year. The nominal total represents 37.5% of the company’s combined revenue from the previous year. This also surpasses the entire 2025 Space segment revenue projection by 71%.
However, launch economics are no longer the main driver of SpaceX’s finances. Last year, the Connectivity segment generated nearly 11 times the adjusted EBITDA of the Space unit. The AI business continued to operate at a loss while requiring heavy capital investment.
2025 segment
Revenue
Adjusted EBITDA
EBITDA margin
Capital spending
Space
$4.086 billion
$653 million
16.0%
$3.832 billion
Connectivity
$11.387 billion
$7.168 billion
62.9%
$4.178 billion
AI
$3.201 billion
-$1.237 billion
-38.6%
$12.727 billion
Group or segment total
$18.674 billion
$6.584 billion
35.3%
$20.737 billion
Adjusted EBITDA refers to a non-GAAP metric. Margins as well as total spending by segment are based on figures from company reports.
Connectivity accounted for 61% of total revenue. At the same time, AI represented 61% of capital expenditures across the three segments. These numbers clarify why a new Falcon contract failed to reignite the valuation discussion.
Operational performance continues to be solid. SpaceX completed the launch of the classified NROL-95 mission early Thursday, and its Falcon 9 booster made a successful return landing in Florida.
The closest certified competitors contend with obstacles. United Launch Alliance—a joint venture between Boeing Co. NYSE:BA and Lockheed Martin Corp. NYSE:LMT—is examining a Vulcan booster-separation issue. Blue Origin continues as a private entity, while its New Glenn rocket will stay grounded through at least year-end.
Colin Canfield, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, maintained his Buy rating and kept the price target at $246, reflecting an upside of 119% from Thursday’s closing price. Canfield stated that more clarity on AI profit margins and capital-raising strategies could “significantly alleviate some of these concerns.” Oninvest
SpaceX will announce its second-quarter earnings following Tuesday’s market close, with its management team scheduled to host a webcast at 4:30 p.m. EDT. Investors will assess if Starlink’s cash flow can support AI investments while maintaining the strength of the balance sheet.
Risks: Nearly 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors could soon be available for sale following results. Additional uncertainties include Starship deployment, AI-related expenditures, and heavy reliance on government clients.
What is SpaceX's current trading level, and what is the extent of its drop?
Ahead of the July 31 market open, the previous regular-session close stood at $112.20, representing a 16.9% decline from the $135 IPO price. As of Thursday’s close, SpaceX posted a market capitalization near $1.49 trillion. Shares have traded between $107.01 and $225.64 since listing. SpaceX now trades 50.3% beneath its June intraday high. Volatility in the stock remains intense. The Wall Street Journal
Do SpaceX’s disclosed financials justify its present valuation?
SpaceX's valuation stands at $1.49 trillion, close to 80 times its adjusted 2025 revenue. The revised figures incorporate xAI and X across the reported periods. SpaceX posted $18.674 billion in revenue alongside a net loss of $4.937 billion. The first quarter showed an operating loss of $1.943 billion on revenue of $4.694 billion. Visible Alpha had a July 28 consensus estimate of $293, but projections differ substantially. Both the current valuation and target price are based on expectations for significant future margin expansion. The Wall Street Journal
What can investors anticipate from the earnings report on August 4?
SpaceX is set to report second-quarter earnings following Tuesday’s market close on August 4. Visible Alpha projects revenue at $6.9 billion, about 47% higher than the prior quarter’s result. Analyst earnings-per-share estimates range from a $1.26 loss to a $0.33 gain, marking an unusually broad range. Connectivity margin is predicted at 35.9%, helping to balance losses from Space and AI segments. Investors seek more detailed guidance on capital spending and clarification on bridge-loan repayment. SpaceX Investor Relations
Could Starlink sustain SpaceX financially as other divisions use up cash?
Connectivity posted revenue of $11.387 billion and operating income of $4.423 billion for 2025. Revenue for the first quarter was $3.257 billion, with operating income of $1.188 billion. As of March 31, the number of Starlink subscribers had doubled year on year to 10.3 million. Monthly ARPU dropped to $66 from $86 over the same period. Visible Alpha projects a 35.9% operating margin in the second quarter. Starlink continues to generate short-term profit, but declining prices remain a concern. SEC
What is the level of risk posed by AI investment, capital requirements, and debt exposure?
The AI division recorded an operating loss of $2.469 billion on revenue of $818 million. AI-related capital expenditures reached $7.723 billion in the same quarter. Overall capital spending for the first quarter stood at $10.107 billion, more than double the consolidated revenue figure. As of March 31, total debt was $29 billion, with cash and short-term securities at $23.675 billion. These numbers are prior to the June IPO, suggesting a potential improvement in the next balance sheet. SpaceX is required to use IPO proceeds to help repay a $20 billion bridge loan. SEC
Has Starship Flight 13 significantly strengthened the outlook for long-term investment?
Flight 13 conducted a brief release of 20 Starlink V3 test satellites into suborbital space. The upper stage executed reentry and landed in the Indian Ocean. The booster experienced five failed attempts to reignite its engines, resulting in a harder-than-expected impact in the Gulf. SpaceX allocated $930 million to Starship research during the first quarter. The advances achieved were significant. However, orbital deployment, swift reuse, and consistent launch timing have yet to be demonstrated. reuters.com
Could the share price come under pressure from insider unlocks and the Cursor acquisition?
As many as 911.5 million Class A shares become eligible for sale from August 6, though eligibility does not guarantee shares will be sold right away. An additional 455.8 million shares would need to meet a $175.50 price threshold, which has not yet been reached. SpaceX has also entered into an agreement to buy Cursor, valuing the company at an implied equity value of $60 billion in an all-stock deal. The total number of shares for the transaction is based on a seven-day closing VWAP before closing. These developments could increase overall supply, but the level of actual selling is uncertain. investopedia.com
To what extent do recent defense contracts enhance revenue predictability?
The Space Force has granted a $1.6 billion contract for 18 Falcon 9 launches taking place through 2027. Each launch will depart from Vandenberg and will boost airborne-target sensing payloads. The awarded sum represents about 39% of the company's 2025 revenue for its Space segment. Launches are planned to extend through 2027, resulting in revenue being distributed over several fiscal periods. Before this award, SpaceX reported a March order backlog of $27.621 billion. According to Reuters, total Pentagon-related awards set for 2026 have reached a minimum of $7 billion. Space Systems Command
What is the significance of joining the Nasdaq-100, and when might the S&P 500 potentially add it?
SpaceX entered the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, under a month after its listing. According to JPMorgan, the move could bring about $4.3 billion in passive inflows. Reuters noted that SpaceX started with an index weight of 1.34%. Shares declined 5.4% on the day of entry, despite anticipated demand. Reuters sees the earliest opportunity for S&P 500 inclusion as at least one year away, with no guarantee of when, or if, that will happen. Nasdaq IR
Is a merger between Tesla and SpaceX under consideration?
According to The Wall Street Journal, Tesla advisers considered spinning off its China operations, with the report indicating this move might relate to a potential future SpaceX merger. Musk refuted the account, calling it “absurdly fake news” and insisting no talks have occurred. The report and Musk's denial are in direct opposition. Investors should view any merger speculation as contested and not as an official outlook. The Wall Street Journal
Iwona Majkowska is a financial markets journalist at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, artificial intelligence and technology. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics, she previously worked in equity research and financial analysis before focusing on market reporting. Her daily coverage helps investors follow major developments across U.S. and global markets. Follow Iwona Majkowska on Google News.
