NEW YORK, August 1, 2026, 14:20 EDT – Trading ended for the day on U.S. markets
- Ondas closed Friday at $7.49, marking a 4.0% decline over the week.
- The company must average $158.3 million in revenue each quarter from Q2 to Q4 to meet its 2026 target.
- Ondas Inc. is set to release its second-quarter results on August 13, with July payroll figures expected on August 7.
Ondas Inc. NASDAQ:ONDS requires average revenue of approximately $158.3 million for each of Q2, Q3, and Q4 to hit management’s minimum target of $525 million. This rate is 3.2 times higher than the revenue posted in Q1.
DZYNE’s post-close revenue is not reflected in the August 13 report, as the acquisition was finalized on July 2, following the close of Q2 by two days. Guidance will carry more significance.
Management has earlier indicated that Q2 would probably mark the high point for adjusted EBITDA losses. It also projected strong revenue growth in the second half. Now, figures are needed to support these statements.
The revenue bridge presents a sharp increase. The scenarios listed below represent calculations rather than projections.
| Revenue calculation | Amount |
|---|---|
| Revenue disclosed for Q1 | $50.1 million |
| 2026 management goal | At least $525.0 million |
| Revenue yet to be achieved, Q2-Q4 | At least $474.9 million |
| Q2-Q4 needed average per quarter | $158.3 million |
| Q1 portion of yearly goal | 9.5% |
| With Q2 at $100 million: Q3-Q4 necessary average | $187.4 million |
| With Q2 at $125 million: Q3-Q4 necessary average | $174.9 million |
| With Q2 at $150 million: Q3-Q4 necessary average | $162.4 million |
With a $125 million second quarter, $349.9 million in revenue would remain for the year’s latter half. DZYNE is set to start reporting revenue in that timeframe.
Ondas lifted its target from no less than $390 million following its acquisition of DZYNE. The forecast factors in DZYNE and Omnisys, but does not account for the still-pending Cyberhawk acquisition. Executives project DZYNE alone will deliver $191 million in full-year 2026 revenue.
The cost of a missed execution is increased by the capital structure. Ondas reported 469.1 million shares outstanding as of March 31, and by July 23, that figure had climbed to 569.9 million.
| Capital measure | Latest disclosed shares | Including contracted Jan. 4 shares |
|---|---|---|
| Share count | 569.9 million | 614.9 million |
| Increase since March 31 | 21.5% | 31.1% |
| Market value at Friday’s $7.49 close | $4.27 billion | $4.61 billion |
| Market value versus $525 million goal | 8.1 times | 8.8 times |
The second column lists 45 million DZYNE shares, with a due date of January 4, 2027. This figure is not on a fully diluted basis. Warrants, options, and other potential shares are excluded from this total.
Ondas underperformed compared to three key drone and defense sector peers last week and also fell behind the Nasdaq Composite, which advanced 1.6%.
| Stock or index | Friday close | Weekly change |
|---|---|---|
| Ondas | $7.49 | down 4.0% |
| AeroVironment NASDAQ:AVAV | $149.37 | off 0.1% |
| Kratos Defense & Security Solutions NASDAQ:KTOS | $46.60 | fell 1.6% |
| Red Cat Holdings NASDAQ:RCAT | $7.53 | down 1.4% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,373.85 | up 1.6% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,931.34 | Up less than 0.1% |
The week ended with little change after volatile swings. Shares plunged 13.5% on Wednesday before recovering 11.5%.
| Session | Close | Daily change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 27 | $8.02 | +2.82% | 66.47 million |
| July 28 | $7.86 | -2.00% | 61.98 million |
| July 29 | $6.80 | -13.49% | 59.02 million |
| July 30 | $7.58 | +11.47% | 55.51 million |
| July 31 | $7.49 | -1.19% | 59.69 million |
Roughly 302.7 million shares were traded over those five sessions, representing 53% of the share count as of July 23.
Ondas disclosed a pro forma backlog of $457 million following the first quarter. In a July presentation, DZYNE’s backlog was listed at $111 million as of June 30. The numbers reflect differing timelines and coverage.
The company reported securing $70 million in new orders over a four-week span. Chief Executive Eric Brock described this as a “strong demonstration of our execution.” The statement did not specify a delivery timeline. Ondas Inc.
Two disclosures lodged this week revealed significant passive stakes as of June 30. Vanguard Capital Management disclosed ownership of 25.6 million shares, or 5.16%. BlackRock Inc. NYSE:BLK reported holding 38.1 million shares, accounting for 7.2%. Combined, these positions represent 11.2% of the share count as of July 23.
Profitability has yet to be achieved. Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 showed a loss of $10.9 million. Operating cash outflow totaled $51.3 million. The top three customers accounted for 69% of total revenue.
The upcoming week concludes with the release of July payroll data on August 7. According to a Reuters poll, economists expect 83,000 jobs to be added and unemployment to remain at 4.3%. Ondas’ next scheduled corporate event is its earnings report on August 13.
Risks: Shifts in contract timing may move revenue to different quarters. Integrating the acquisition could push back the ramp expected in the second half. DZYNE shares, warrants and contingent stock set for January 2027 may result in dilution for holders.
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