AMSTERDAM, August 11, 2026, 23:25 CEST — Nebius NASDAQ:NBIS jumped 5% as the company faces a key test to reach $2 billion in second-half revenue.
- Nebius finished up 4.95% ahead of Wednesday’s premarket earnings release.
- For second-half sales to align with the Q2 revenue consensus, they need to surpass $2 billion.
- Investors are watching to see if contracted power will be delivered and turned into revenue-generating capacity as scheduled.
Nebius Group N.V. NASDAQ:NBIS climbed 4.95% to finish at $193.23 on Tuesday. The stock gained another 5.57% after hours, reaching $204.00 as of 16:54 EDT. The move came as the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.60%.
The AI infrastructure firm, headquartered in Amsterdam, is scheduled to release second-quarter earnings ahead of Wednesday’s market open. The earnings call will begin at 08:00 EDT, corresponding to 14:00 CEST.
| Market measure | August 11 reading |
|---|---|
| Nebius closing price | $193.23, up 4.95% |
| Nebius after-hours | $204.00, up 5.57% |
| Nebius five-day movement | down 14.40% |
| Nebius change since start of year | up 130.85% |
| Nasdaq Composite | down 0.60% |
The main focus is not solely on headline growth. Nebius needs to demonstrate that contracted electrical capacity is translating into connected capacity, then generating active revenue. This differentiation now underpins the 2026 guidance.
Nebius posted first-quarter revenue of $399 million. Analysts’ consensus for the second quarter stands at approximately $569.9 million. If achieved, total revenue for the first half would be about $968.9 million.
| Earnings measure | Q1 2026 actual | Q2 2026 estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $399.0 million | $569.9 million |
| Revenue growth, year over year | +684% | Approximately +442% |
| Adjusted net loss / EPS | $100.3 million loss | -$0.72 per share |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $129.5 million | Not disclosed |
Management continues to forecast 2026 revenue between $3.0 billion and $3.4 billion. Based on consensus estimates, Nebius would require $2.03 billion to $2.43 billion for the second half. This remains the critical point for earnings.
| Revenue bridge | Low-guidance path | High-guidance path |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 revenue goal | $3.00 billion | $3.40 billion |
| Estimated revenue for first half | $968.9 million | $968.9 million |
| Second-half revenue needed | $2.03 billion | $2.43 billion |
| Average needed per Q3/Q4 | $1.02 billion | $1.22 billion |
| Growth required over Q2 consensus | +78% | +113% |
The buildout is intentionally weighted toward later stages. Nebius projects connected power will hit 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt by year-end. The company also anticipates a notable rise in capacity in the third quarter.
D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria lowered his price target for Nebius to $175 from $250, maintaining a Hold rating. Luria pointed to ongoing delays at Nebius’s Vineland, New Jersey facility and warned, “We fear that the narrative on Nebius could change,” if the company’s ability to translate power into revenue is challenged. TipRanks
Some analysts are still optimistic. Goldman Sachs maintained its Buy rating while lifting its price target to $286 on August 10. Citi most recently set its target at $278. The range highlights how much valuation hinges on execution.
| Analyst | Rating | Target | Implied move from $193.23 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | $286 | +48.0% |
| Citi | Buy | $278 | +43.9% |
| Baird | Buy | $250 | +29.4% |
| Piper Sandler | Hold | $224 | +15.9% |
| D.A. Davidson | Hold | $175 | -9.4% |
While the consensus outlook is broadly favourable, it is not without dissent. According to Google Finance, analysts over the past three months have assigned seven Buy ratings and five Hold ratings. No analysts listed have issued a Sell rating. The average price target stands at $241.
CoreWeave Inc. NASDAQ:CRWV posted second-quarter revenue of $2.58 billion following Tuesday’s market close, surpassing the consensus estimate near $2.55 billion. The company’s backlog climbed to $104 billion. Shares of CoreWeave advanced in after-hours trading.
Nebius reported cash and equivalents totaling $9.30 billion at the close of March, alongside non-current debt of $8.43 billion. The company’s capital spending for the first quarter amounted to $2.47 billion as it ramped up construction work.
The 14.4% drop in shares last week has heightened expectations. Investors now await details on Q3 capacity timing, revised year-end power outlook, and signs that contracted demand is converting to billable usage.
Risks: Delays at Vineland could reduce the second-half opportunity for revenue. Significant expenditures might necessitate further funding, and supply limitations risk hindering deployment pace. With short interest at 30.22% of float, price movements could be intensified both ways.
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