NEW YORK, August 7, 2026, 08:08 EDT (Nasdaq premarket; regular session starts at 09:30 EDT)
- In premarket trading, shares gained 3.5% to $196.49. The stock finished Thursday at $189.88, reflecting a 13.3% decline.
- The drop wiped out about $7.4 billion, based on Nebius’s share count as of March 31.
- Vineland’s planning board is required to meet again. Nebius releases its second-quarter earnings before markets open on Wednesday.
Nebius Group N.V. NASDAQ:NBIS gained 3.5% in premarket trading on Friday. The advance recouped just 23% of Thursday’s $29.11 drop.
The 13.3% fall on Thursday wiped out around $7.4 billion in market value, based on the share count as of March 31. The steep decline came after a six-hour Vineland planning meeting concluded with no decision.
The difference is significant. Construction has begun on the first phase following its approval. What remains undecided are the second phase and the associated on-site power plan.
The following day, deal advisors revealed $1.7 billion in project funding for Bloom Energy Corp. NYSE:BE fuel cells. The investment backs behind-the-meter power associated with Nebius’s capacity contract.
The difference highlights a risk to the timeline rather than an urgent financing shortfall. This is an interpretation; even finalized financing has yet to obtain local authorization.
| Thursday’s market math | Value | Investor comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Final share price | $189.88 | Decreased 13.29% |
| Estimated equity wiped out | $7.39 billion | March 31 shares × $29.11 |
| Revenue forecast for 2026 | $3.0–$3.4 billion | Loss is 2.3 times midpoint |
| Vineland power spending | $1.7 billion | Loss represents 4.3 times investment |
| Early trading price at 08:01 EDT | $196.49 | Rising 3.48% |
The $7.39 billion figure is based on 253.9 million shares outstanding as of March 31. This is not a market capitalization reported by the company.
DataOne lawyer Michael Fralinger stated there would be no subsidy from current utility customers for the project. “All of the financial risk for this project is being borne by the project.” WHYY
Locals raised concerns regarding water use, emissions, noise, and operations. During the hearing, testimony estimated yearly water consumption at close to 8 million gallons, with carbon emissions reported at 2.19 billion pounds.
The drop on Thursday notably exceeded that of comparable AI-infrastructure firms. The S&P 500 edged down 0.2%, whereas the tech index rose 0.6%.
| August 6 results | Closing value | Change on the day |
|---|---|---|
| Nebius Group | $189.88 | -13.29% |
| CoreWeave Inc. NASDAQ:CRWV | $85.33 | -5.10% |
| IREN Ltd. NASDAQ:IREN | $37.93 | -2.53% |
| Applied Digital Corp. NASDAQ:APLD | $28.86 | -3.42% |
| S&P 500 | — | -0.18% |
The peer analysis suggests the selling is isolated to the company, not part of a broader neocloud downturn.
Nebius is set to release its second-quarter results ahead of the market open on August 12.
The current consensus anticipates a per-share loss of $0.72, compared with $0.56 a month ago. The updated figure brings increased attention to capacity timing and margin performance.
| Financial benchmark | Latest figure | Prior comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 revenue | $399.0 million | $50.9 million for the same period last year |
| Q1 adjusted EBITDA | $129.5 million | $53.7 million loss |
| Q1 capital expenditure | $2.47 billion | $543.9 million |
| Cash and equivalents | $9.30 billion | $3.68 billion at the close of last year |
| 2026 revenue guidance | $3.0–$3.4 billion | $3.2 billion midpoint |
| Preliminary Q2 EPS consensus | -$0.72 | -$0.56 one month ago |
These company results have not been audited. The Q2 EPS number represents an initial estimate from analysts.
Installed supply has been unable to keep pace with demand. “We typically see several customers competing for every GPU we bring online,” CEO Arkady Volozh stated in May. Reuters
Vineland backs Nebius’s $17.4 billion deal with Microsoft Corp. NASDAQ:MSFT. As a result, the initial stage holds strategic significance that extends beyond a single local facility.
Wall Street sentiment stays upbeat, yet projections vary significantly. Price targets run from $144 to $410, with an average of $267.31.
| Analyst recommendation | Three months ago | One month ago | Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Overweight | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Hold | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| Underweight | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sell | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Consensus | Overweight | Overweight | Overweight |
The mean price target suggests an approximate 41% potential increase from Thursday’s closing level. The range of targets continues to be notably wide.
Citigroup Inc. NYSE:C maintained its Buy rating on Wednesday. Analyst Tyler Radke revised the price target down to $278 from $287.
The message from investors is clear. Nebius’s valuation reflects permitting and construction delivery, rather than just contracted demand. Differences with peers back up this interpretation, even if a single session does not establish causation.
Risks: Vineland’s board may postpone or turn down the second phase. Nebius projects capital expenditure of $20 billion to $25 billion in 2026. Any delay in delivery could impact cash flow or contractual schedules.
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