ESPOO, Finland, August 12, 2026, 06:43 EDT – Nokia’s stock (NOK) climbed 8% after the company said orders for its AI technology now amount to 6.3 times its quarterly sales.
Nokia Corporation NYSE:NOK gained 8.1% to approximately $10.20 in early premarket activity. The advance continued Tuesday’s rebound, offsetting losses from last week.
The greater challenge lies past the share price reaction. Based on Nokia’s full-year profit midpoint, the company would need to deliver approximately €1.18 billion in comparable operating profit for the fourth quarter, provided its third-quarter performance remains similar to the second quarter.
This would represent roughly 2.7 times the profit recorded in the second quarter. As a result, investors are factoring in both a significant AI backlog and a sharp increase in profits toward the end of the year.
| Date | NOK price | Move from prior point | Trading status |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 4 | $9.92 | — | Close |
| August 7 | $9.36 | -5.6% | Close |
| August 10 | $9.13 | -2.5% | Close |
| August 11 | $9.44 | +3.4% | Close |
| August 12 | Roughly $10.20 | +8.1% | Early premarket (preliminary) |
On Tuesday, trading volume reached 65.8 million shares, representing just 64% of the 50-day average. The ADR closed 45.9% under its $17.45 peak from June. Investors remain cautious.
The operational thesis depends on data-center connectivity. AI and cloud orders in the second quarter totaled €2.8 billion, amounting to 6.3 times the €446 million in sales to those clients during the period.
| AI and cloud metrics | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Change or conversion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Order intake | Around €1.0 billion | €2.8 billion | +180% from previous quarter |
| Customer sales | Not reported separately | €446 million | Up 105% on the year |
| Orders projected to convert in 12 months | — | Roughly €1.4 billion | Represents half of Q2 orders |
| Order intake versus quarterly sales | — | 6.3x | Based on calculation |
Chief Executive Justin Hotard stated that demand continues to be strong, with supply being the primary limiting factor. Nokia gains visibility from longer-term orders, but these do not eliminate the risk of delayed deliveries.
Comparable operating profit for the second quarter climbed 18% to €434 million, topping the €382 million consensus from LSEG. AI and cloud revenue surged to more than twice the previous level. Overall, comparable sales rose 8%.
| Comparable measure | Q2 2025 | Q2 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | €4.448 billion | €4.815 billion | +8% |
| Gross margin | 45.3% | 46.0% | up 70 basis points |
| Operating profit | €367 million | €434 million | +18% |
| Operating margin | 8.3% | 9.0% | up 70 basis points |
| Diluted EPS | €0.04 | €0.07 | +75% |
The projected comparable operating profit for the full year is set between €2.1 billion and €2.6 billion. Nokia described the €100 million boost as a technical adjustment, following the reclassification of two businesses as discontinued operations.
| Comparable operating profit bridge | Amount | Status |
|---|---|---|
| First half | €735 million | Reported |
| Full-year midpoint | €2.350 billion | Guidance midpoint |
| Second half required | €1.615 billion | Initial estimate |
| Q3 expected | About €434 million | Management expects little change from Q2 |
| Q4 derived | About €1.181 billion | Initial estimate |
The expense of the transition is reflected in the reported figures. Q2 operating margin stood at negative 1.0%, while the comparable figure was positive 9.0%. The gap was largely due to accelerated restructuring.
Analysts kept an upbeat outlook following the results. Four out of the five most recent calls listed below had Buy or Overweight ratings.
| Firm | Recommendation | ADR target | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argus Research | Buy | Not stated | July 24, 2026 |
| Northland Securities | Buy | $20 | July 24, 2026 |
| Craig-Hallum | Buy | $15 | July 24, 2026 |
| Bank of America | Buy | $18 | July 23, 2026 |
| JPMorgan | Overweight | $21 | June 12, 2026 |
In the coming week, it will become clear if Nokia can remain above its $9.92 close from August 4. The importance of order conversion and supply stability outweighs the impact of further broad AI-driven rallies.
Risks: Limited memory supply may hinder shipments and squeeze profit margins. Ericsson STO:ERIC-B has previously cautioned about rising chip costs. The Nokia Q4 figure referenced above is a mathematical calculation, not an official forecast from the company.
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