SÃO PAULO, August 31, 2026, 18:01 BRT
- Nu finished trading on Friday at $14.30, a drop of 3.9%, with 79.1 million shares changing hands.
- Late-stage delinquencies climbed to 6.9%, while quarterly net income exceeded $1 billion.
- The average analyst price target of $18.78 suggests a potential upside of approximately 31% from Friday’s closing price.
Shares of Nu Holdings NYSE:NU declined 3.9% to $14.30 on Friday. The fall comes as the company posts record quarterly profit alongside a 6.9% late-stage bad-loan rate. Volume reached 79.1 million shares, marginally higher than the three-month average.
Profit scales. Credit risk follows.
Price path around Q2 results
Trading attention
Operating scale
| Metric | Q2 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Customers | 122.7M | 135.2M | 138.9M |
| Monthly ARPAC | $12.50 | $15.90 | $17.10 |
| Revenue | $3.77B | $5.32B | $5.88B |
| Net income | $637M | $871M | $1.06B |
Risk versus return
| Metric | Q2 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15–90 day NPL | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% |
| 90+ day NPL | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% |
| Risk-adjusted NIM | 9.9% | 9.5% | 12.4% |
| ROE | 28% | 29% | 33% |
| Efficiency ratio | 21.3% | 17.6% | 19.5% |
Analyst target ladder
| Firm | View | Target | Latest date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfe Research | Buy | $17.00 | Aug 25 |
| UBS | Buy | $18.20 | Aug 20 |
| Morgan Stanley | Buy | $21.00 | Aug 17 |
| Susquehanna | Hold | $16.00 | Aug 14 |
| Bank of America | Sell | $10.00 | Aug 13 |
Balance-sheet bridge
What can move the shares next
U.S. regular trading closed at 16:00 EDT on Monday. The most recent independently confirmed quote stood at $14.51 at 13:40 EDT, an increase of 1.47%. By that time, trading volume had totaled 59.8 million shares.
The dynamic is straightforward. Nu’s profit generator is gaining momentum, yet older loans are declining in quality. By the end of trading on Friday, shares were 24.7% beneath their 52-week peak.
| Share-price marker | Price | Change | Volume / context |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 14 close | $15.23 | +9.33% | 156.4 million; first session following earnings |
| August 28 close | $14.30 | -3.90% | 79.1 million |
| August 31, 13:40 EDT | $14.51 | +1.47% | 59.8 million as of stated time |
| 52-week high | $18.98 | -24.7% compared to Friday’s close | 52-week low: $11.20 |
David Vélez, founder and chief executive, stated that Nu is “now generating more than a billion dollars in quarterly net income.” The announcement comes after years of expanding its customer base and increased adoption of its products. Nu’s official results
Net income for the second quarter totaled $1.06 billion. Managerial revenue increased to $5.88 billion, and the customer base grew to 138.9 million. Average monthly revenue per active customer was $17.10.
| Operating measure | Q2 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Customers | 122.7 million | 135.2 million | 138.9 million |
| Monthly ARPAC | $12.50 | $15.90 | $17.10 |
| Managerial revenue | $3.77 billion | $5.32 billion | $5.88 billion |
| Net income | $637 million | $871 million | $1.06 billion |
Credit quality acts as a counterbalance for investors. Loans delinquent for 90 days or more climbed to 6.9%. This figure is 0.4 percentage point higher than the levels recorded in both March and June 2025.
Early-stage delinquencies fell to 4.8% from 5.0% on a sequential basis. Nu attributed most of this shift to seasonal factors. The firm also grew its presence in segments offering higher risk and greater returns.
| Risk and return measure | Q2 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-performing loan ratio (15–90 days) | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% |
| Non-performing loan ratio (over 90 days) | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% |
| Net interest margin, risk adjusted | 9.9% | 9.5% | 12.4% |
| Return on equity, annualized | 28% | 29% | 33% |
| Efficiency ratio | 21.3% | 17.6% | 19.5% |
Margin expansion offset the credit signal in the previous quarter. Risk-adjusted net interest margin rose by 2.9 percentage points from the prior period. Return on equity climbed to 33%.
Growth remains costly. The efficiency ratio increased to 19.5% from 17.6% in the previous period. Nu attributed the rise to relocated property and marketing costs, as well as investments abroad.
In June, Mexico recorded 15.8 million customers, rising to 16 million in July. Colombia surpassed the 5 million customer mark. Nu’s total deposits climbed to $45.3 billion, while its credit portfolio stood at $39.4 billion.
Wall Street’s outlook is broadly positive, though forecasts vary significantly. The consensus is Buy, with twenty-two analysts setting an average price target of $18.78. Targets span from a low of $10 up to a high of $23.
| Analyst / firm | Recommendation | Target | Latest action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrin Peller, Wolfe Research | Buy | $17.00 | Maintained; reduced from $18 | August 25 |
| Thiago Batista, UBS NYSE:UBS | Buy | $18.20 | Reiterated; increased from $16.90 | August 20 |
| Jorge Kuri, Morgan Stanley NYSE:MS | Buy | $21.00 | Reiterated | August 17 |
| James Friedman, Susquehanna | Hold | $16.00 | Maintained | August 14 |
| Mario Pierry, Bank of America NYSE:BAC | Sell | $10.00 | Maintained | August 13 |
The target spread reflects the ongoing debate. On average, there is a projected 31.3% potential upside from Friday’s close. Meanwhile, the bearish scenario points to a possible 30.1% decline, mainly if credit expenses surpass improvements in margins.
Unsecured lending, currency fluctuations, and overseas execution continue to pose key risks. Accelerated loan growth has the potential to boost revenue but may also increase delinquency rates. In addition, expenses related to marketing and property could reduce operating leverage.
The upcoming earnings release is set for November 12. In the lead-up, investors are expected to focus on late-stage delinquencies, the risk-adjusted margin, and the funding composition in Mexico. The performance of these indicators should clarify whether Friday’s drop reflected caution or a reset in valuation.
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