SAO PAULO, March 12, 2026, 17:01 BRT
Ambev ended Thursday at 14.93 reais in Sao Paulo. Its New York ADRs dropped roughly 4.3%, closing at $2.86. This follows BB Investimentos reaffirming its neutral rating and 16-real price target on the brewer the previous day.
BB flagged that upbeat shareholder return expectations have been propping up the stock. Back in February, Ambev outlined roughly 20 billion reais in planned payouts—dividends, Brazilian interest on capital, and buybacks all included.
The macro picture’s gotten murky. Brazil’s annual inflation eased to 3.81% in February, just before the central bank meets next week, but surging oil prices—fueled by Middle East tensions—have complicated the timeline for rate cuts and triggered a wider risk-off tone in markets.
BB Investimentos analyst Georgia Jorge said the bank kept its end-2026 target steady despite revising macro assumptions and rolling in fresh results along with updated growth and profitability forecasts. According to the report, shares are still trading near what BB considers fair value.
BB noted that investors are eyeing a potentially better landscape for beverage companies in 2026, despite only slight gains so far in Brazil’s industry. The FIFA World Cup is expected to provide an additional bump in demand. Ambev, in its Q4 statement, struck a similar note—pointing to a stronger starting point heading into 2026 and a focus on engaging with consumers during the tournament.
Ambev’s latest results were a mixed bag. For the full year 2025, normalized EBITDA climbed 5.6%, pushing the margin up by 50 basis points to 33.4%. Normalized profit inched higher, up 1.6%. But the fourth quarter told a different story: normalized profit slipped 8.0%, and volumes retreated 3.6%.
Carlos Lisboa, the chief executive, credited strong branding and solid execution for “mid-single-digit” EBITDA growth and improved margins, even with the environment in flux. Looking ahead, the company expects cash COGS per hectoliter for Brazil beer—so, per 100 liters sold—to climb between 4.5% and 7.5% in 2026, assuming foreign exchange rates and commodity costs don’t shift much from where they are now. Mziq API
Ambev’s board picked April 6 for distributing the first 1.2 billion-real tranche of interest on capital declared for 2025. Last year, the company’s capital-return moves featured 13.2 billion reais in dividends, plus a 2.5 billion-real share buyback plan, according to Ambev.
Brokers, for now, are playing it safe. Of the 18 firms tracking Ambev, 13 sit at neutral, two recommend buying, and three are on sell—leaving the bulk of Street sentiment undecided.
The stock’s story goes beyond simple valuation. BB has highlighted intensifying competition, shaky consumer confidence, and little ability to push higher costs onto buyers—risks that stack up alongside Ambev’s own caution about climbing Brazil beer costs and sluggish volumes it’s projecting for 2025.
Ambev, AB InBev’s Latin American subsidiary, distributes beer, soft drinks, and more throughout the Americas. The company has its first-quarter 2026 results slated for release on May 5, according to its event calendar.
