NEW YORK, December 31, 2025, 3:59 PM ET — Regular session
- American Airlines shares were little changed near the close of the year’s final U.S. trading session.
- Oil prices logged their steepest annual drop since 2020, keeping fuel-cost expectations in focus for airlines.
- Traders are watching winter disruption risks and the carrier’s next earnings update, listed for late January.
Shares of American Airlines Group, Inc. (AAL.O) were down less than 0.1% at about $15.33 in late afternoon trading, after moving between $15.23 and $15.41 on the day.
The muted move came in the final session of 2025, with airline stocks caught between two forces that can swing profit forecasts quickly: fuel prices and operational disruption during peak travel periods.
That matters now because the calendar flips into a seasonally slower stretch for airlines, when investors tend to refocus on cost control and pricing power after the holiday rush fades.
Fuel is a major variable expense for carriers. When crude oil falls, jet fuel typically becomes cheaper, which can lift margins if ticket prices hold.
U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels last week, but gasoline and distillate inventories rose sharply, the Energy Information Administration said. “Year end numbers tend to be distorted,” said Josh Young, chief investment officer for Bison Interests, pointing to tax-driven inventory shifts that can muddy the signal for oil traders. Reuters
Oil prices have been sliding into year-end, and Brent is set to post its steepest annual percentage drop since 2020, with U.S. WTI also down nearly 20% in 2025, according to Reuters calculations. Investors are watching the next OPEC+ meeting on Jan. 4 for any hint of supply policy shifts.
Airline investors have also had to price in winter weather disruption after Winter Storm Ezra snarled holiday travel earlier this week, with thousands of delays and hundreds of cancellations reported. Airlines including American and peers United and JetBlue said they waived change fees for affected passengers as carriers worked to recover schedules.
Separately, the Federal Aviation Administration briefly issued a ground stop for American Airlines departures bound for Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport late Tuesday before lifting it, ABC7 Chicago reported, citing the agency. The station reported nearly 40 flight cancellations at O’Hare as of 9 p.m.
American’s hubs make the carrier especially exposed to regional snarls. When aircraft and crews end up out of position, airlines often incur extra costs to rebook passengers, reposition staff and recover schedules.
Investors will look for more detail on how disruptions and year-end demand trends translate into revenue and cost performance as airlines head into the first quarter.
Yahoo Finance’s earnings calendar lists Jan. 22 as American’s next report date. Traders typically zero in on guidance for “unit revenue” (revenue per seat-mile flown) and capacity (the amount of flying), alongside fuel and labor costs. Yahoo Finance
For now, American’s stock has traded in a tight range into the close, reflecting a market that is treating the latest weather and oil headlines as near-term noise — but still worth watching as 2026 begins.
