Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) Shares Drop 7.4% After EPS Beat Largely Attributed to Tariff Refunds

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) Shares Drop 7.4% After EPS Beat Largely Attributed to Tariff Refunds

NEW YORK, August 1, 2026, 10:09 EDT

  • Apple shares ended Friday at $308.91, falling 7.35% and wiping out approximately $358 billion in market capitalization.
  • Refunds from tariffs contributed $0.11 per share to earnings, accounting for about 85% of the 13 cent beat.
  • Guidance for revenue growth in the September quarter was set at 9%-11%, missing Wall Street’s forecast of 12%.

U.S. financial markets did not trade on Saturday. Apple shares finished Friday at $308.91, falling 7.35%. The decline wiped out approximately $358 billion in value. Over the week, the stock dropped 7.2%, while the Nasdaq advanced 1.6%.

Stock chart for NASDAQ:AAPL

The decline focused on the quality of earnings. Apple posted earnings of $2.02 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.89. Refunds from tariffs accounted for 11 cents of that figure. Without including those refunds, the earnings beat narrowed to just two cents, approximately 15% of the reported surprise.

Margins reflected similar trends. Gross margin was reported at 50.1%, factoring in two points related to refunds. The core outcome slightly surpassed forecasts.

Earnings quality reconciliation

MetricReported or guidedAdjusted or calculatedComparison
Fiscal Q3 EPS$2.02$1.91 without refund impact$1.89 consensus
Fiscal Q3 EPS surprise$0.13$0.02 excluding refundRefund accounted for 84.6%
Fiscal Q3 gross margin50.1%48.1% after refund removed47.92% consensus
September-quarter margin47%-48% outlook47.5% midpointDown 60 bps from Q3 excluding refund

Source: Apple and Reuters. All figures for adjustments and basis-point comparisons are computed.

Sales momentum stayed robust. Revenue increased by 16.4% to $109.42 billion. Tim Cook described it as an “incredibly strong product cycle beyond our expectations.” iPhone, Mac and services each achieved record June-quarter sales. Reuters

Breakdown of revenue

Revenue lineQ3 salesYear-on-year changeShare of revenue
iPhone$54.25 billionup 21.7%49.6%
Services$30.74 billionup 12.1%28.1%
Mac$10.35 billionincrease of 28.7%9.5%
Wearables, Home and Accessories$7.88 billiongain of 6.5%7.2%
iPad$6.19 billiondecline of 5.9%5.7%

Source: Apple’s preliminary quarterly reports. Calculations for growth and revenue portion.

Services make up a larger share of overall profit. Disclosed costs indicate a 75.6% gross margin for services, compared to 40.1% for products. Gil Luria at D.A. Davidson stated that services might “slow down even more” as iPhone growth steadies.

Performance was mixed compared to consensus. Mac achieved the strongest outperformance. iPad, services, and Greater China fell short. Despite this, Greater China posted 22.4% growth, though forecasts had anticipated more.

Consensus compared to actual

MetricActualWall Street estimateVariance
Mac revenue$10.35 billion$8.74 billion+18.4%
iPhone revenue$54.25 billion$53.86 billion+0.7%
Services revenue$30.74 billion$31.22 billion-1.5%
Greater China revenue$18.82 billion$19.67 billion-4.3%
iPad revenue$6.19 billion$6.92 billion-10.5%

Information: Reuters, based on analyst projections from LSEG and Visible Alpha. Discrepancies are computed values.

Management is projecting revenue growth between 9% and 11% for the September quarter. Analysts on Wall Street had anticipated roughly 12%. The forecast for margins is at 47%-48%, which is 60 basis points under the ex-refund margin result from Q3 at the midpoint.

Cook stated that supply limitations were “very significant,” with minimal room for adjustment. The primary bottlenecks affected advanced processor and memory capacity. According to Reuters, Apple’s inventory reserves were dwindling. Reuters

The market showed a strong divergence. Amazon advanced 15.3%, Alphabet climbed 6.7%, and Microsoft edged up 3.0%. The Nasdaq ended the session up 1%.

Friday peer overview

CompanyClosing priceFriday moveMarket valueP/E ratio
Apple$308.91down 7.35%$4.54 trillion37.4
Amazon$271.58up 15.32%$2.92 trillion32.5
Alphabet$356.13rose 6.73%$4.35 trillion17.9
Microsoft$464.72increased 3.02%$3.45 trillion27.7

Information provided by Google Finance and Associated Press.

Apple’s price-to-earnings ratio of 37.4 stayed higher than each of its main competitors. That valuation means another disappointment would come at a greater price. Analysts’ median target price was $330, or roughly 6.8% higher than where shares finished on Friday.

The July U.S. employment data is due on Friday, August 7. Apple shareholders will monitor updates from brokers and inspection of supply chain components. The company’s $0.27 dividend record date is set for August 10.

Risks: Supply constraints may resolve more quickly, enabling Apple to address backlogged demand and maintain margins. Potential downside issues are more severe processor shortages, weaker services performance, and increased pressure on the App Store.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

Has the selloff on Friday provided adequate valuation backing?
Apple dropped 7.4% to $308.91 but remains at roughly 35.4 times trailing earnings. LSEG’s median target of $330 suggests potential gains of around 6.8%. Following the outlook, four brokers reduced targets and three increased them. At its current valuation, there is limited tolerance for further disappointments. Reuters
Will Apple meet September-quarter forecasts despite limited supply?
Management projects revenue growth between 9% and 11%, below the 12% expected by Wall Street. The company anticipates iPhone growth in the mid-teens, while consensus stands at around 17.6%. Gross margin is predicted to decline to 47%–48%. Despite solid demand, advanced-node and memory shortages could limit shipments. Reuters
Did the June-quarter results exceed expectations as significantly as stated?
Apple’s diluted EPS rose by $0.11 to $2.02 due to tariff refunds, which also pushed gross margin up by around two percentage points to 50.1%. Without the refunds, EPS reached $1.91 and margin was near 48.1%. This EPS figure remained ahead of the $1.89 forecast by Wall Street. Apple
Could iPhone demand withstand potential price hikes?
iPhone sales rose 21.7% to $54.25 billion, topping the $53.86 billion analysts had predicted. Some purchases may have been pushed forward in anticipation of possible price hikes in September. Management currently expects iPhone growth in the mid-teens this quarter. Increased prices may help safeguard margins, but could reduce unit sales. Reuters
Are Services and Siri AI enough for Apple to maintain its premium valuation?
Services revenue increased by 12.1% to $30.74 billion, falling short of the $31.22 billion forecast. Gross margin for services stood at approximately 75.6%, compared to 40.1% for products. Growth was hindered by changes to the App Store's gaming and business models. Apple could generate revenue from heavy Siri AI usage by encouraging iCloud+ upgrades. The financial impact is not yet specified.

Michał Rogucki is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and macroeconomic developments. A graduate of Humboldt University of Berlin, he previously worked in investment research and market analysis before transitioning to financial journalism. He covers the trends and events that matter most to investors worldwide.

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