AMSTERDAM, July 3, 2026, 15:14 CEST
- ASML traded at 1,626.60 euros, rising 3.1% from the last close but still 6.6% under its record from June 30.
- ASML traded at roughly 15.7 to 17.4 times its 2026 sales guidance, according to its 626.08 billion euro market cap.
- ASML’s weight in the AEX is 14.69%, so just Friday’s move could tack on close to 0.45 percentage point to the Dutch index, assuming the rest of the names don’t move.
- ASML reports second-quarter results before the Amsterdam market opens on July 15.
ASML Holding N.V. AMS:ASML traded higher Friday, with shares last at 1,626.60 euros, up 3.1% from Thursday’s close of 1,577.80 euros. The stock moved between 1,588.40 and 1,636.40 euros on the day. Some investors are watching the gap between the current price and analyst targets instead of just the daily move.
The rebound keeps the stock 6.6% under its June 30 record of 1,741 euros. It’s now close to the average 12-month price target of 1,695.96 euros. Investing.com pegs the room to target at 4.26%, with 38 analysts rating it a buy and two at sell.
| ASML market check | Latest or derived figure | Investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Friday quote | €1,626.60 | Bounce, but still under the high |
| Previous close | €1,577.80 | Up 3.1% for the session |
| June 30 record | €1,741.00 | Down 6.6% from peak |
| Average 12-month target | €1,695.96 | Implied upside is 4.3% |
| Target range | €980 to €2,500 | Spread is €1,520, or about 93% of the Friday close |
ASML’s valuation stands out. The company’s market cap came in at 626.08 billion euros. Back in April, ASML guided for 2026 net sales between 36 billion and 40 billion euros, with a gross margin between 51% and 53%. Using those figures, the stock is trading at 15.7 to 17.4 times its projected 2026 sales, or 16.5 times at the midpoint.
| Valuation input | Figure |
|---|---|
| Market cap | €626.08 bln |
| ASML’s 2026 sales forecast | €36 bln-€40 bln |
| Price/sales at low range | 17.4x |
| Price/sales at high range | 15.7x |
| Price/sales at midpoint | 16.5x |
This comes as another data point is coming up soon. ASML is set to report its Q2 earnings at 0700 CEST on July 15. CEO Christophe Fouquet and CFO Roger Dassen plan to hold a 60-minute call with investors at 1500 CEST that day.
Fouquet called out strong demand back in April, saying “Demand for chips is outpacing supply.” He also noted ASML’s 2026 outlook “accommodates potential outcomes of ongoing discussions around export controls.” ASML
Policy is now the main risk. A Reuters story on Thursday said an EU-backed report raised alarms about possible Chinese export curbs on key materials, as well as Europe’s heavy reliance on U.S. chip tech. The report also flagged that the U.S. might move to bar ASML, Europe’s top-valued firm, from exporting to China.
Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the Institute for Security Studies and co-author of the report, told Reuters that while Beijing is still seen as the main threat, Europe is now more worried about its dependence on Washington. “Without reliable access to critical raw materials, Europe’s chip ecosystem cannot compete, innovate or grow,” SEMI Europe chief Laith Altimime said to Reuters. Reuters
The index story is straightforward. The March 31 AEX fact sheet from Euronext put ASML as the second-biggest name in the index, just after Shell plc AMS:SHELL, ahead of Unilever PLC AMS:UNA. ASML had a 14.69% weight, so a 3.1% swing in ASML moves the AEX by about 0.45 percentage point, before any impact from other stocks.
| AEX top weight | Weight |
|---|---|
| Shell plc AMS:SHELL | 16.02% |
| ASML Holding N.V. AMS:ASML | 14.69% |
| Unilever PLC AMS:UNA | 12.41% |
ASML slid 4.6% Wednesday while the STOXX tech index lost 1.2%, Reuters reported. Luca Finà at Generali Asset Management told Reuters they still favor the tech sector. Dan Coatsworth at AJ Bell pointed to worries about a possible rate hike at year’s end.
ASML trading going into July 15 is about more than AI demand vs. China risk now. Shares are near the mean target, well above the Street’s low view. With the stock’s big weight in the AEX, a bookings miss would spill beyond ASML.
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