NEW YORK, July 20, 2026, 2:09 p.m. EDT
- U.S. markets remained open, with AT&T shares rising 0.5% to $21.93.
- Initial calculations estimate annualized dividends and intended share repurchases at close to $15.7 billion.
- FactSet NYSE:FDS preliminary consensus projects revenue of $31.8 billion and earnings per share of $0.589.
AT&T stock gained 0.5% on Monday, ahead of a cash-flow assessment set for Wednesday. According to guidance, the bulk of 2026 cash generation is expected following June.
Free cash flow reached $2.5 billion in the first quarter. For the second quarter, management forecasted free cash flow in the range of $4 billion to $4.5 billion.
This would result in at least $11 billion to $11.5 billion allocated for the second half, accounting for 61% to 64% of the yearly minimum. The timing is significant.
Based on the share count at the end of March, yearly dividend payments total approximately $7.7 billion. When including intended share repurchases, the early estimate for overall capital return reaches $15.7 billion. This represents around 87% of the minimum cash flow.
Based on Monday’s market capitalization, that minimum translates to a free-cash-flow yield of 11.7%. AT&T shares remain priced at just 7.4 times their trailing earnings.
| Company | Price | Monday change | Market capitalization | Trailing P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AT&T | $21.93 | up 0.5% | $154.0 billion | 7.4x |
| Verizon Communications NYSE:VZ | $43.48 | down 0.3% | $183.0 billion | 10.6x |
| T-Mobile US NASDAQ:TMUS | $194.49 | gained 1.1% | $214.2 billion | 20.7x |
Market data was captured at about 1:53 p.m. EDT.
AT&T trades at a multiple about 30% lower than Verizon and approximately 64% lower than T-Mobile. The valuation gap reflects a greater emphasis on cash performance.
FactSet analysts estimate quarterly revenue at $31.8 billion. Earnings per share are projected at $0.589, down from $0.619 in the previous year. Revenue represents an increase of roughly 3.1%.
AT&T reported capital investment of $5.1 billion for the first quarter, rising from $4.5 billion a year earlier. The company attributed a decline in cash flow to the faster rollout of fiber.
Capital needs persist. In a Monday update, the company reported over $430 million invested since 2023 in more than 1,500 network projects. Network head Robert Walters attributed the progress to “years of focused investment, preparation and execution.” AT&T Newsroom
RBC Capital Markets lowered its price target to $27 from $31 on Monday, maintaining its Outperform rating. The revised target is still roughly 23% higher than the stock’s closing price on Monday.
AT&T will announce results ahead of Wednesday’s market open, with its conference call scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET.
Risks: Increased network investment, slower subscriber growth or more aggressive promotions may impact cash flow. AT&T reported $126.4 billion in net debt as of March 31.
If cash flow comes in at the upper end, it will ease pressure in the second half. Falling short would strain the capital-return coverage. That is the measure investors face on Wednesday.
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