Sao Paulo, March 16, 2026, 16:00 UTC-03:00
Banco Bradesco’s U.S.-listed preferred ADRs climbed roughly 2.7% to $3.63 on Monday, recovering from Friday’s $3.53 close as the session pressed into late afternoon. The latest trade showed volume above 31 million shares.
Bradesco’s push for a more sustainable earnings rebound is in focus, with investors watching for a possible rerating. The upcoming Copom meeting in Brazil, set for March 17-18, could influence what comes next. The Selic benchmark stays at 15%. Bradesco’s most recent earnings showed improved profitability, stronger loan growth, and bad loans holding steady.
Bradesco wasn’t the only one moving. Shares of Itaú Unibanco climbed about 3.3% in ADR trading, while Santander Brasil added around 2.6%. That points to a sector-wide lift, not just company news. Global stocks also rebounded Monday as oil prices pulled back, though crude is still up sharply this month.
Brazil’s rate outlook just got more tangled. February brought annual inflation down to 3.81%, yet on Friday the finance ministry bumped its 2026 inflation estimate up to 3.7%, citing pricier oil. Central bank monetary policy director Nilton David called for “serenity” as markets weigh the energy price impact on inflation. Reuters
Economists can’t agree on Copom’s next move. Julio Barros at Banco Daycoval points to oil-driven inflation pressures, calling the data “biased toward” a pause—though he’s still betting on a 25-basis-point cut. Liam Peach from Capital Economics, for his part, argues cutting is “more likely than not” with Brazil’s real rates holding well above historical norms. Reuters
Bradesco looks sturdier than it did a year earlier. The bank posted recurring net income of 6.5 billion reais for the fourth quarter back in February, with return on average equity at 15.2%—a typical yardstick for profitability. Recurring profit for the full year jumped 26.1% to 24.7 billion reais. Loans on the books expanded to 1.089 trillion reais, and the proportion of loans more than 90 days overdue stayed at 4.1%.
Chief Executive Marcelo Noronha told the earnings call that Bradesco sees “favorably at the prospect of growth,” adding that credit quality remains “absolutely controlled.” He noted net interest income should move up slightly faster than loan growth — a result, he explained, of the bank’s portfolio mix. Mziq API
More paperwork landed in front of investors. Bradesco disclosed that on March 10, shareholders gave the nod to a 6.67 billion real capital boost drawn from legal reserves—no fresh shares coming—plus board and governance actions; according to the filing, both the capital hike and board elections remain subject to central bank signoff before they’re in force.
Bradesco moved ahead with its proposal to merge healthcare holdings into Odontoprev, according to a March 6 filing. The bank argued the deal would streamline its structure, boost efficiency and expand combined health and dental offerings. Odontoprev shareholders are set to vote on a series of measures—among them, a capital increase and rebranding to Bradsaúde.
It’s not hard to see the downside risks. According to Goldman, hedge funds went heavy on shorting financial stocks worldwide during the week ending March 13. Bradesco, meanwhile, cautioned that its ongoing transformation investments are still weighing on costs, despite efforts to streamline. One more spike in oil-driven inflation, or if the Copom delivers a smaller rate cut than expected, and Monday’s rebound could quickly fade.
With this week’s rate decision out of the way, traders are eyeing the next big event. Bradesco’s corporate calendar has Q1 results lined up for May 6, but right now, Copom’s upcoming meeting—whether they kick off easing Tuesday and Wednesday, and just how guarded their tone turns out—remains the main focus.
