London, July 13, 2026, 10:09 (BST)
BP PLC LON:BP rose 2.1% to 492.85 pence by 0948 BST on Monday, beating a 0.9% rise in Shell PLC LON:SHEL to 3,066.5 pence as fresh U.S.-Iran attacks lifted crude. Brent had topped $79.70 before easing to $78.75. “Hormuz is the market’s pressure point,” Tickmill analyst Patrick Munnelly said. AJ Bell
The relative move, rather than the absolute gain, is the investor signal. BP advanced 3.3% from July 3 through July 10, against 5.1% for Shell; Monday’s 1.2-percentage-point lead for BP erased about 67% of Shell’s 1.8-point advantage from last week, a calculation from closing and intraday prices shows.
| Share | July 3–10 | Monday to 0948 BST |
|---|---|---|
| BP | +3.3% | +2.1% |
| Shell | +5.1% | +0.9% |
| Relative leader | Shell by 1.8 points | BP by 1.2 points |
That reversal matters because BP’s second-quarter trading statement, a pre-results snapshot of operating and market trends, lands at 7 a.m. BST on Tuesday. Investors are moving before they see whether the same volatility that helped trading income also released cash and reduced debt.
In the first quarter, BP’s underlying replacement-cost profit — its preferred measure of net income — more than doubled to $3.2 billion. Even so, a $6 billion working-capital build, involving current assets such as inventory and receivables minus short-term liabilities, pushed net debt to $25.3 billion from just over $22 billion. Oil trading was exceptional; cash conversion was not.
Shell’s update supplies the cleanest peer benchmark. It forecast a $1 billion-to-$6 billion second-quarter working-capital inflow, effectively a release of cash, and significantly stronger gas-trading results. BP can report a good trading quarter and still disappoint if its balance sheet barely moves.
Chief Executive Meg O’Neill last week said BP needed to make “fewer, better choices” and tighten discipline in costs, cash and capital. The group shifted on July 1 to two divisions — upstream production and downstream refining and sales — with debt reduction at the front of its reset. Reuters
But the trade can turn fast. Mohit Kumar, an economist at Jefferies, said he remained optimistic that a temporary “patch” could keep oil flowing and cap prices; U.S. officials said about 20 vessels had been escorted through Hormuz in the previous 24 hours, though ship tracking still showed little traffic. Better shipping or a deal would strip out the risk premium — the extra price paid for uncertainty — and could reverse BP’s sharper move. Reuters
Tuesday’s test is therefore narrow: trading quality, working-capital direction and net debt. Strong trading with little debt relief would leave Monday’s catch-up looking like a one-day crude trade, not proof that BP’s reset is gaining traction.
