MARA shares dropped 10.9% over the past week. After results were released on Friday, the stock fell another 5.3%, closing at $10.09.
TechStock² • Digital assets
US dollar / XRP
XRP bounced on Sunday yet continues to trade under the $1.14–$1.16 ceiling set in July. The outlook hinges on whether ETF inflows and an upcoming XRP Ledger rollout can deliver consistent spot buying.
Short-term structure strengthens if above $1.14, and deteriorates if it falls below $1.05.
Demand for funds and network growth are on the rise, but price confirmation has not yet occurred.
Spot XRP funds in the US
Up $7.69 million
July 31 saw a net inflow. Total net inflows amounted to $1.51 billion, with net assets close to $989 million.
Software for XRP Ledger
5 changes
The upcoming xrpld 3.3.0 update is set to feature five suggested modifications. These changes are not enabled by the software release itself.
The week starting Aug. 3
The package will feature batch transactions, permission delegation, sponsored fees, as well as two token functionalities.
Following release
For an amendment to take effect, it must achieve over 80% backing for a two-week period.
Throughout the week
Bitcoin holds close to $63,000. A broader market downturn may overshadow developments specific to XRP.
Bullish scenario
A decisive move higher surpasses late-July resistance, putting the $1.16–$1.19 zone back on the radar.
Baseline scenario
Interest in ETF products and upgrades is balancing an otherwise weak medium-term outlook. Sideways trading is expected to be the predominant scenario.
Downside scenario
The next level to watch is the $1.04 close area. If it gives way, the $1.00 mark could come into play.
The divergence is key. Fund inflows and ledger activity are rising, yet XRP is still 41.2% under its closing price at the end of 2025. Securing a daily finish above $1.14 would be more significant than the software news on its own.
Market data displays provide momentary snapshots and do not serve as tailored investment advice. Scenario levels reflect observed market benchmarks rather than assured price objectives. Forecasts may shift rapidly as prices, fund flows, and network votes fluctuate.
Friday-to-Friday: −1.98% • Sunday range: $62,280–$63,541
Weekly gain: +1.76% • After-hours: $92.85 • Company-defined mNAV: 1.05x
Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) beat Bitcoin over the trading week, but the stock fell harder after earnings. The larger signal is its 1.05x company-defined mNAV. The premium for owning Bitcoin through the corporate wrapper is now thin.
That changes the test for MSTR. A Bitcoin rebound helps both assets. Strategy also needs its financing premium, capital access and net Bitcoin per share to improve. Direct Bitcoin carries none of the company's debt, preferred-stock or dilution risk.
1.05x
Strategy defines mNAV as MSTR's share price divided by net Bitcoin per share after specified senior claims and the USD reserve. Above 1x, new common shares can increase net Bitcoin per share under the company's assumptions. At 1.05x, that cushion is only about 5%.
Friday-to-Friday performance • July 24–31
At the live Bitcoin quote, Strategy's 843,775 coins were worth an estimated $53.22 billion. Their reported purchase cost was $63.69 billion.
Holdings value versus acquisition cost
Bitcoin is 16.4% below Strategy's $75,476 average cost. It would need to rise about 19.7% to return to that level.
“Our BTC Hurdle ARR of 10.8% represents our current effective cost of credit.”
Andrew Kang, Strategy chief financial officer, July 30, 2026
Strategy reported an $8.22 billion second-quarter net loss. An $8.32 billion unrealized digital-asset loss drove the result. Revenue rose 6.9% to $122.4 million.
The more important common-stock issue is capital allocation. Strategy raised cash, supported STRC and made no Bitcoin purchase in its latest disclosed week. MSTR's next period of sustained outperformance may require the mNAV premium to expand, not merely a higher Bitcoin price.
MSTR will absorb Bitcoin's weekend move. Any new company filing may show whether Bitcoin buying resumed.
A strong labor reading could lift Treasury yields and the dollar, adding pressure to risk assets.
The July employment report is the week's main macro event for Bitcoin, yields and MSTR.
These are observed market levels, not price targets.
Risks
Bitcoin trades continuously, so MSTR can gap when Nasdaq reopens. Strategy can sell Bitcoin, issue common stock or direct cash toward preferred dividends and repurchases. Below 1x company-defined mNAV, common issuance would reduce net Bitcoin per share under the company's stated assumptions.
MSTR can regain amplification if Bitcoin rises, mNAV expands and new financing adds net Bitcoin per share after the 10.8% hurdle. Until then, Strategy's capital structure may matter as much as the coin itself.
Market data is not tailored investment guidance. The live Bitcoin quote and derived holding value are timestamped estimates. Scenario bands are observed levels, not price objectives. Strategy changed its mNAV methodology on July 23, 2026; earlier readings are not comparable, and the metric is not traditional net asset value.
