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Interest Rates 25 November 2025 - 4 December 2025

U.S. Economy Today (Dec. 4, 2025): Fed Rate‑Cut Bets Grow as Jobless Claims Rise and Confidence Falls

U.S. Economy Today (Dec. 4, 2025): Fed Rate‑Cut Bets Grow as Jobless Claims Rise and Confidence Falls

U.S. jobless claims rose to 219,000, slightly above forecasts, while Gallup reports economic confidence at its lowest since mid-2024. Stock futures held steady near record highs as traders anticipate a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. The dollar weakened on those expectations. Fitch and the OECD raised 2025 U.S. growth forecasts, citing strong AI investment.
4 December 2025
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Australia Stock Market Today: ASX 200 Climbs as Miners Rally and RBA Rate-Hike Bets Build – 4 December 2025

Australia Stock Market Today: ASX 200 Climbs as Miners Rally and RBA Rate-Hike Bets Build – 4 December 2025

The S&P/ASX 200 closed Thursday up about 0.3% at 8,618, lifted by strong gains in copper and diversified miners as LME copper futures hit record highs. Capstone Copper surged nearly 8%, while South32 and Rio Tinto rose 3–4%. Lithium and gold stocks lagged, with Liontown Resources down 5.6%. Market volatility fell to a one-month low.
4 December 2025
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Australia Stock Market Today: ASX 200 Climbs as GDP Data, Rate Bets and Bond Yields Collide – 3 December 2025

Australia Stock Market Today: ASX 200 Climbs as GDP Data, Rate Bets and Bond Yields Collide – 3 December 2025

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed up 15.5 points, or 0.18%, at 8,595.2 on Wednesday after September-quarter GDP rose 0.4%, missing forecasts. The index jumped after the data but gave up gains as bond yields and rate expectations weighed. Market breadth was slightly positive, and the VIX fell to a one-month low near 10.9. Private business investment surged 7.6%, while household discretionary spending remained weak.
3 December 2025
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Federal Reserve News on December 1, 2025: QT Ends, December Rate‑Cut Odds Surge, and Bank Supervision Moves to Center Stage

Federal Reserve News on December 1, 2025: QT Ends, December Rate‑Cut Odds Surge, and Bank Supervision Moves to Center Stage

The Federal Reserve ended its balance-sheet tightening on December 1, 2025, halting reductions to its securities portfolio. Markets now price in a nearly 90% chance of a rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting. Internal divisions have surfaced within the FOMC, with up to five members reportedly skeptical of further cuts. Regulators released a new banking system assessment as Vice Chair Bowman described banks as “sound and resilient.”
2 December 2025
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Federal Reserve News Today (Dec. 2, 2025): Rate Cut Odds Near 90% as Fed Ends QT and Faces Growing Dissent

Federal Reserve News Today (Dec. 2, 2025): Rate Cut Odds Near 90% as Fed Ends QT and Faces Growing Dissent

The Federal Reserve ended its quantitative tightening program on December 1, after more than $2.2 trillion in securities runoff. Futures markets now price in an 85–88% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December 9–10 FOMC meeting. The federal funds rate stands at 3.75%–4.00%. At least five of 12 voting members oppose further cuts, signaling deep divisions.
2 December 2025
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Fed December 2025 Rate Cut Odds Surge as JPMorgan and BofA Flip, but Fed Remains Deeply Divided

Fed December 2025 Rate Cut Odds Surge as JPMorgan and BofA Flip, but Fed Remains Deeply Divided

Traders now see an 80–90% chance the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its December 9–10 meeting, according to CME FedWatch futures. Major banks including JPMorgan and Bank of America have shifted to expecting a cut. Fed minutes and recent commentary show deep internal divisions, raising the risk of multiple dissents and a muddled policy message.
1 December 2025
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NS&I £1bn Budget Shake-Up: What It Means for Premium Bonds, Interest Rates and UK Savers in 2025

NS&I £1bn Budget Shake-Up: What It Means for Premium Bonds, Interest Rates and UK Savers in 2025

The UK government raised National Savings & Investments’ net financing target for 2025–26 from £12 billion to £13 billion in the Autumn Budget, leaving NS&I over £9 billion short as of September. The Premium Bonds prize fund rate stands at 3.60% after three cuts in 2025, with odds unchanged at 22,000 to 1. No changes have been made to Premium Bonds payouts following the Budget.
1 December 2025
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Polymarket’s Youngest Billionaire vs. a Divided Fed: How Prediction Markets Are Pricing a December 2025 Rate Cut

Polymarket’s Youngest Billionaire vs. a Divided Fed: How Prediction Markets Are Pricing a December 2025 Rate Cut

Polymarket’s “Fed decision in December” market showed 88% odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut as of Nov. 30, 2025, with over $25 million traded. Founder Shayne Coplan, 27, became the world’s youngest self-made billionaire after a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange. Polymarket recently secured U.S. regulatory approval after a four-year ban. The December FOMC meeting remains deeply divided.
1 December 2025
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World Stock Markets Poised for December 1, 2025 Open as Fed Ends QT and Rate‑Cut Bets Surge

World Stock Markets Poised for December 1, 2025 Open as Fed Ends QT and Rate‑Cut Bets Surge

The U.S. Federal Reserve ends its quantitative tightening program Monday, halting balance-sheet runoff and boosting expectations for a December rate cut. Global equity indices hover near record highs after strong November gains, but U.S. equity funds saw $4.56 billion in outflows last week as some investors moved to de-risk. European stocks posted their longest winning streak since March 2024.
30 November 2025
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Premium Bonds Rate Rise Looms as Budget 2025 Hands NS&I a £1bn Target – What Savers Need to Know Today

Premium Bonds Rate Rise Looms as Budget 2025 Hands NS&I a £1bn Target – What Savers Need to Know Today

The UK Autumn Budget raised NS&I’s 2025–26 net financing target by £1 billion to £13 billion, prompting speculation about higher rates on Premium Bonds and savings products. From April 2027, the cash ISA allowance drops to £12,000 and tax on savings interest rises by 2 points. NS&I’s Premium Bonds prize rate remains 3.60%. Fixed-rate British Savings Bonds now pay up to 4.20% AER.
28 November 2025
Premium Bonds £1bn Boost: How NS&I’s New Budget 2025 Target Could Change Interest Rates for Savers

Premium Bonds £1bn Boost: How NS&I’s New Budget 2025 Target Could Change Interest Rates for Savers

Chancellor Rachel Reeves raised National Savings & Investments’ net financing target for 2025–26 by £1 billion to £13 billion in the Autumn Budget. NS&I has collected £3.9 billion so far this year, leaving over £9 billion to raise. The move has sparked speculation about possible increases in Premium Bonds prize rates or savings interest. NS&I’s total savings stock stands at £243.9 billion.
28 November 2025
US Stock Market Today: Wall Street Extends Rally as Fed Rate‑Cut Bets Surge (Nov. 26, 2025)

US Stock Market Today: Wall Street Extends Rally as Fed Rate‑Cut Bets Surge (Nov. 26, 2025)

U.S. stocks rose for a fourth straight session Wednesday, with the Dow up 0.8% to 47,501, the S&P 500 gaining 0.8% to 6,819, and the Nasdaq climbing 0.9% to 23,224. Traders now see an 80–85% chance of a December Fed rate cut. Tech and AI-linked shares led gains, while Workday, Deere, and HP fell on weak outlooks. Jobless claims dropped to a seven-month low.
26 November 2025
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Canada Stock Market Today (Nov. 26, 2025): TSX Pushes Past 31,000 as Gold Miners and Fed Rate‑Cut Hopes Power Early Trade

Canada Stock Market Today (Nov. 26, 2025): TSX Pushes Past 31,000 as Gold Miners and Fed Rate‑Cut Hopes Power Early Trade

The S&P/TSX Composite Index traded above 31,000 for the first time Wednesday morning, extending a three-day rally of nearly 1,000 points. Early gains were led by gold miners and financials as investors bet on U.S. rate cuts. By 9:31 a.m. ET, the index was up about 0.3% at 30,994. Futures and pre-market trading had signaled the move after softer U.S. economic data.
26 November 2025
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RBNZ Cuts Official Cash Rate to 2.25% and Signals End of Easing Cycle as New Zealand Economy Starts to Recover

RBNZ Cuts Official Cash Rate to 2.25% and Signals End of Easing Cycle as New Zealand Economy Starts to Recover

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on November 26, the lowest since mid-2022. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 5–1 for the cut, with one member preferring to hold. RBNZ signaled this is likely the last cut for now, as inflation has eased to 3% and the economy remains weak. Governor Christian Hawkesby chaired his final meeting before Anna Breman takes over.
26 November 2025
US Dollar Index Slips Below 100 as Weak US Data Turbocharges December Fed Rate‑Cut Bets (DXY Today: 25 November 2025, After the Bell)

US Dollar Index Slips Below 100 as Weak US Data Turbocharges December Fed Rate‑Cut Bets (DXY Today: 25 November 2025, After the Bell)

The U.S. Dollar Index closed Tuesday near 99.85, down about 0.3% after weaker-than-expected economic data and dovish Fed comments raised bets on a December rate cut. The index traded between 99.65 and 100.26 during the session. The euro rose to around $1.16 and sterling climbed above $1.32 as the dollar weakened. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to about 4.01%.
25 November 2025
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US Stock Market Today, November 25, 2025: Dow Surges as Fed Rate‑Cut Bets Rise While Nvidia Slumps on Google–Meta AI Chip Shock

US Stock Market Today, November 25, 2025: Dow Surges as Fed Rate‑Cut Bets Rise While Nvidia Slumps on Google–Meta AI Chip Shock

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 1%, adding about 550–570 points in early Tuesday trading, outpacing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Nvidia shares fell nearly 4% after reports Meta may shift billions in spending to Google’s AI chips. Odds of a December Fed rate cut climbed into the low-to-mid 80% range after new economic data and dovish Fed comments. Kohl’s and Abercrombie & Fitch surged 30–35% on strong earnings.
25 November 2025
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Stock Market Today

  • SpaceX Nasdaq Debut on June 12: Key Insights for Indian Investors
    June 12, 2026, 12:17 AM EDT. SpaceX is set to debut on the Nasdaq on June 12 with an estimated valuation of $1.77 trillion. Indian investors can access SpaceX shares through the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) and US brokerage accounts. Financial experts caution on the risks associated with SpaceX's high valuation, urging investors to exercise care before investing. The stock's entry highlights growing interest in space technology but carries typical startup volatility alongside premium pricing.

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Keel Infrastructure (KEEL) shares surge after $458 million AI data center deal closes

Keel Infrastructure (KEEL) shares surge after $458 million AI data center deal closes

12 June 2026
Keel Infrastructure Corp. surged 5.14% to $5.52 after closing $458 million in 1.250% convertible senior notes due 2032, with proceeds aimed at accelerating AI and high-performance computing data center projects; the notes’ initial conversion price is $7.41, about 25% above the June 4 close, while analysts’ 12-month price targets range from $3.00 to $8.00, averaging $5.52.
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