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Nearly all of the FTSE 100’s net weekly point increase came from Tuesday and Wednesday, which together accounted for 96% of the total movement.
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TS2 Tech • British equities market
UK Stock Market Forecast: Earnings Must Broaden the Rally
FTSE 100 index
10,868.05
+1.23% this week
-0.27% Friday
+3.53% in July
10,989.45 Friday record high
Britain’s blue-chip index opens the week trading 1.10% under its all-time high. Further direction will rely on the breadth of earnings rather than a renewed rise in oil prices.
Reference band from last week
10,868.05
10,736.23July 24 close
10,989.45Record high
FTSE 250 index
23,975.02
+0.73% over the week; marks third consecutive weekly advance.
Interest Rate
3.75%
Decided by a 6–3 majority on July 30.
Flash composite Purchasing Managers' Index
52.1
An increase from 49.3 in June; final figures expected Wednesday.
Q2 earnings in Europe
up 20.8%
Latest projection; rises 10.3% excluding energy.
Upcoming test
July’s gains extended further than the top oil and mining stocks. The FTSE 250 rose 4.18% over the month, outperforming the FTSE 100. This suggests improved breadth.
The rebound remains tilted toward the energy sector. UK energy stocks gained over 15% in July. In Europe, second-quarter estimated profit growth drops from 20.8% to 10.3% if energy is excluded.
Next week brings key indicators. HSBC assesses banks and lending. BP examines the oil sector. Glencore reports on metals. Diageo evaluates consumer appetite.
Price shift in July
Standard scale at 16%. Energy displays at its verified minimum of 15%.
Second-quarter earnings forecast
Forecast for annual profit increase. The difference indicates the extent to which energy is driving this season.
Looking ahead: August 3–7
Mon • Aug 3
UK manufacturing PMI final reading. The preliminary figure stood at 52.8, remaining above the 50 threshold that indicates expansion rather than contraction.
Tuesday • Aug 4
HSBC Holdings (LON:HSBA) reports interim results, while BP (LON:BP) posts its second-quarter results. Investors will focus on factors such as bank margins, credit quality, oil cash flow, and shareholder returns.
Wed • Aug 5
UK final services and composite PMIs; Glencore (LON:GLEN) first-half earnings. Preliminary data showed the services PMI at 51.8 and the composite PMI at 52.1.
Thu • Aug 6
UK construction PMI and preliminary fiscal 2026 results from Diageo (LON:DGE). Diageo is expected to provide a strategy update as well.
Fri • Aug 7
US July jobs data due at 13:30 BST. A significant surprise may impact sterling, gilt yields, oil, and FTSE shares with global exposure.
FTSE 100 outlook
Finish above 10,989.45
Consistent strength in banks, energy, materials, and consumer stocks would indicate wider backing for a fresh peak.
Maintain 10,829.34–10,989.45
The index steadies between Friday’s low and its record high, with mixed earnings balancing robust commodity cash flow.
Drop under 10,829.34
The subsequent recorded reference stands at 10,736.23. A downturn in oil, rising gilt yields or disappointing guidance could increase the threat.
Risks involved
The primary market threat comes from concentrated energy exposure. A sudden drop in oil prices could erase a key contributor to July’s rise. Interest rate forecasts are also influential, with markets heading into the weekend anticipating at least one Bank of England hike before year-end.
Investor perspective
The FTSE 100 could reach a new high next week. More convincing momentum would come from widespread advances following updates from HSBC, BP, Glencore and Diageo. If oil stocks alone drive the increase, the index may be more vulnerable to a pullback.
Market data provided is not tailored investment guidance. Scenario figures represent observed market benchmarks, not intended price objectives. Flash PMI numbers remain initial estimates until official final figures are published.
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