New York, July 4, 2026, 15:03 EDT
- Circle dropped 12.2% during the holiday-shortened week. Shares did manage to climb 4.31% in the latest confirmed U.S. session.
- The June 30 selloff accounted for 42.5% of the stock’s volume over four sessions. The move suggests the drop was sparked by large repositioning.
- USDC supply held up better than the stock. The equity is factoring in ongoing margin and distribution risk.
Circle Internet Group NYSE:CRCL comes into Monday with the stock down sharply, even as USDC supply holds up. Shares finished at $64.62 on July 2, rising 4.31% for the day, but are off 12.2% from $73.57 at the close the previous Friday. U.S. markets were closed on July 3 for the Independence Day holiday, per the NYSE.
Volume tells more of the story. Circle moved 38.13 million shares on June 30, when the stock dropped 17.55%. Over the four-session week, total volume hit 89.72 million. That means nearly half—42.5%—traded on that one selloff. The July 2 bounce clawed back just $1.99 from a $13.33 plunge on June 30.
| Circle holiday-week tape | Close | Daily move | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 29 | $75.96 | up 3.25% | 9.18 mln |
| June 30 | $62.63 | down 17.55% | 38.13 mln |
| July 1 | $61.95 | off 1.09% | 24.66 mln |
| July 2 | $64.62 | rallied 4.31% | 17.75 mln |
Shares last traded near the bottom of the July 2 range. MarketWatch reported a day range from $63.66 to $69.25 and volume of 17.75 million shares, above the 65-day average of 14.59 million. Circle’s 52-week range was $49.90 to $262.97, leaving the most recent close about 75% under the high.
The drop hasn’t pushed USDC to break down. DeFiLlama data put the stablecoin market at $311.295 billion, with Tether leading at $184.109 billion and USD Coin at $73.088 billion. USDC slipped 1.06% over the last week. Circle said $73.7 billion USDC was in use as of June 29 on its USDC page, and called the coin native to 35 chains.
| Stablecoin market check | Market cap/supply | 7-day change | Read-through for Circle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tether | $184.109 bln | -0.43% | Still holds top spot for dollar tokens |
| USDC | $73.088 bln | -1.06% | Supply down, but not a big break |
| Total stablecoins | $311.295 bln | -0.62% | Sector decline is less steep than CRCL’s shares |
The stock is trading on the risk from Open USD, not only the current USDC totals. Open Standard said June 30 it will allow businesses to mint and redeem Open USD free and with no volume limits, partners will get a share of reserve yields after a management fee, and the board will be made up of partner companies. That group has Visa NYSE:V, Mastercard NYSE:MA, Coinbase Global NASDAQ:COIN, and BlackRock NYSE:BLK. “We’re thrilled to bring together over 140 businesses to launch Open USD,” said Open Standard founding CEO Zach Abrams. joinopenstandard.com
This setup puts pressure on the core of Circle’s business, hitting the piece that matters for equity holders: control over reserve income. Stephen Tu, vice president at Moody’s Ratings, told Fortune the effect of Open USD will “depend on whether those partners route meaningful volume through it,” not just if it gives them a new token on the same old rails. Fortune
Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire downplayed worries that Coinbase’s role in Open USD could hurt USDC. “Our stablecoin partnership with Coinbase remains as strong as ever,” he told CryptoSlate. Allaire said it takes years to build stablecoin networks, and that liquidity, integrations and regulation push the sector toward “winner take most” setups over time. CryptoSlate
Analyst targets on Circle remain divided. Google Finance shows 18 analysts covering the stock: nine have buy ratings, seven are at hold and two rate it a sell. The 12-month price target average is $129.13. Recent updates range from Goldman Sachs with $96 on July 2, Bernstein at $190 on July 1, Morgan Stanley at $106 on June 30, and Susquehanna at $69 on July 1.
| Analyst snapshot | Rating | Target | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs, James Yaro | Hold | $96 | July 2 |
| Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani | Buy | $190 | July 1 |
| Morgan Stanley, James Faucette | Hold | $106 | June 30 |
| Susquehanna, James Friedman | Hold | $69 | July 1 |
| Clear Street, Owen Lau | Buy | $157 | July 1 |
This week will show if Circle acts like an out-of-favor growth name or has settled in as a stablecoin-infrastructure play. The price has clear levels to watch: $61.77 from July 1, $63.66 from July 2, and the $69 to $70 range where the last bounce hit resistance. If it drops under $61.77, the $49.90 52-week low could come into play again.
