Singapore, Feb 3, 2026, 19:32 SGT — Regular session
- Brent edged up 7 cents to $66.37 a barrel; WTI gained 13 cents, reaching $62.27
- Talks on U.S.-Iran de-escalation have trimmed the “risk premium” that surged back in January
- Traders are focused on U.S. inventory figures due Feb. 4 and Friday’s nuclear talks in Turkey
Oil prices found some footing on Tuesday after tumbling sharply the day before. Traders eased up on geopolitical jitters, refocusing on supply concerns and the strength of the dollar. By 1048 GMT, Brent crude futures inched up 7 cents to $66.37 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed 13 cents to $62.27. Both benchmarks had earlier slipped to one-week lows—Brent at $65.19, WTI at $61.12. (Reuters)
The drop is significant because crude has been reacting more to headlines than actual supply-demand shifts. On Monday, Brent dipped $3.02, or 4.4%, ending at $66.30 a barrel. WTI took a $3.07 hit, or 4.7%, closing at $62.14. The plunge followed President Donald Trump’s comment that Iran was “seriously talking” with Washington, ahead of nuclear talks reopening Friday. A stronger dollar and forecasts for milder U.S. weather added to the downside. Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva noted, “The threats underpinned oil prices throughout January.” (Reuters)
Supply policy is adding to trader jitters. On Feb. 1, eight OPEC+ producers announced they would halt planned production hikes set for March 2026, with a follow-up meeting scheduled for March 1 to reassess market conditions. The group indicated that these voluntary cuts might be rolled back gradually, depending on market trends. (OPEC)
Tensions are rising over Russian oil shipments to Asia. Indian refiners haven’t been ordered to stop buying Russian crude yet and want time to process cargoes loaded in February, arriving in March, according to refining insiders. One source warned that a complete shutdown “would hurt” Nayara Energy, a Russia-backed firm dependent on Russian crude. Others added that most state-run refineries would struggle to shift to heavy Venezuelan grades. (Reuters)
The macro environment isn’t lending any support. Commodities dropped across the board Monday as the U.S. dollar gained strength and investors pulled back following Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair, rattling rate forecasts. “A stronger U.S. dollar is also adding pressure on … other commodities, including oil,” said Vivek Dhar at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. (Reuters)
In crude, the “risk premium” — the extra dollars traders shell out over fears of supply disruption — is fading as tensions between the U.S. and Iran ease. Just a slight shift in tone or a steady stream of barrels is enough to pull focus back to inventories.
The downside risk remains. Should global stockpiles grow through late winter, or if a stronger dollar curbs demand from price-sensitive importers, crude prices could ease even without new geopolitical shocks.
The flip side is straightforward too. If diplomacy falters or there’s any hint that shipping and exports might be at risk, that premium can shoot back up fast — and traders are fully aware of it.
Wednesday brings U.S. inventory figures. The Energy Information Administration will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Report on Feb. 4. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
Attention now turns to Friday’s U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Turkey, with the market eager for any hint of easing tensions—or the opposite. (Dawn)
