NEW YORK, March 23, 2026, 13:12 EDT
By 11:43 a.m. ET on Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 888.09 points, or 1.95%, sitting at 46,465.56, pushed higher after President Donald Trump announced a delay in planned U.S. strikes targeting Iranian power plants. The S&P 500 advanced 1.67%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.85%.
The rebound broke a string of steep losses linked to the Iran war and the spike in oil prices that followed. On Friday, the Dow dropped 0.96% to 45,577.47, while the S&P 500 hit its lowest mark since September. Jake Dollarhide, who runs Longbow Asset Management, said at the time that investors were beginning to settle in for a drawn-out conflict—possibly months rather than weeks.
Oil took the spotlight. U.S. crude tumbled 8.58% to $89.80 a barrel, while Brent slid 9.14% to $101.89 after Trump’s announcement—taking some steam off yields. The Federal Reserve had just kept rates at 3.5% to 3.75% last week, flagging Middle East tensions as a reason for a murkier outlook. The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, eased to 24.96 after hitting its highest level in two weeks.
David Bianco, Americas chief investment officer at DWS, called the pause “buys time.” Still, he noted, “the Fed is stuck where they are for a while longer.” Traders, he said, aren’t shrugging off inflation just yet, despite Monday’s slip in oil prices that lent some support to equities. Reuters
Travel and banking stocks led the day’s rebound. Shares of American Airlines and United Airlines surged over 5% apiece, cruise stocks tacked on upwards of 7%, and JPMorgan Chase advanced 1.7% while Goldman Sachs picked up 3%. The move marked a return to names hit hard by rising fuel prices and economic swings.
The foundation for the move looked fragile. Iran pushed back, insisting no talks with Washington were happening. Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley doubted any “relief rally” without clear, concrete progress on geopolitics. For Elias Haddad, a strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, this was just a “knee-jerk reaction”—unless there’s “legit de-escalation,” he said. Reuters
The three major indexes looked set for their strongest daily jump since Feb. 6, the day the Dow closed above 50,000 for the first time—hitting 50,115.67. Despite Monday’s bounce, the blue-chip index stayed comfortably under that milestone. The Dow, unlike the S&P 500, weights higher-priced stocks more heavily, so those names move the needle most.
Back in March, the Fed bumped its median PCE inflation forecast for this year to 2.7%, up from 2.4% in December. That uptick gives some context to how oil moves have been rattling the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq with little warning.
Eyes shift to upcoming Fed commentary, business activity reports, and new reads on consumer sentiment as the week unfolds. For the Dow, the question boils down to this: will lower oil prices stick and draw buyers back in, or is Monday’s run-up just a breather before war headlines take over again?
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