New York, Feb 4, 2026, 15:10 (EST) — Regular session
- Eli Lilly shares climbed roughly 9% in afternoon trading following its quarterly earnings and 2026 outlook.
- Zepbound and Mounjaro, Lilly’s obesity and diabetes treatments, powered the quarter
- Traders are eyeing pricing pressure along with the FDA’s April decision on Lilly’s oral obesity pill
Eli Lilly shares jumped roughly 9% on Wednesday, closing near $1,096 after hitting an intraday peak of $1,110.98. This gain stood out as the broader market slipped, with the SPY falling about 0.3% and the QQQ dropping close to 1.5%.
The rally comes amid jittery trading over shifting expectations in obesity drugs. Lilly’s shares dropped roughly 4% Tuesday after investors reacted to Novo Nordisk’s caution that sales could fall in 2026. That warning underscored how the weight-loss craze is morphing into a pricing battle rather than a simple growth story. 1
Lilly pushed back on Wednesday with its own numbers: fourth-quarter revenue jumped 43% to $19.3 billion, while non-GAAP earnings hit $7.54 per share. The company projected 2026 revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, with adjusted EPS in the $33.50 to $35.00 range. Mounjaro pulled in $7.41 billion this quarter, and Zepbound added $4.26 billion. CEO David Ricks called 2025 “an important year for Lilly,” highlighting expanded patient access and increased manufacturing capacity. 2
On the call, both executives and analysts kept coming back to price. CFO Lucas Montarce admitted that “price is expected to be a drag.” Cardiometabolic chief Ken Custer told investors they’re “encouraged” by early signs for Novo’s oral Wegovy, suggesting some patients have been waiting for a pill option. BMO’s Evan Seigerman noted the update highlighted that the two competitors face “pressures… not identical.” Cantor’s Carter Gould described the guidance as a “more confident view” than many had anticipated. Lilly’s oral obesity medication, orforglipron, is currently under FDA review, with a decision expected in April, the company added. 3
The April deadline is crucial as the battle moves to cash-pay, where patients cover costs directly and prices drive decisions. Reuters highlighted rising investor fears that discounts could spiral into a price war. Markus Manns of Union Investment called it a “no-win situation,” while Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar acknowledged that “pricing reduction takes a toll” but can boost volume. The report also noted competition from compounded GLP-1 versions and flagged Pfizer and Amgen’s plans to launch rival drugs in 2028. 4
That optimistic forecast doesn’t answer the key issue: how quickly net prices will decline in the U.S., and if volume growth can offset those losses. Should discounting intensify or cheaper options lure patients away more rapidly, margins might shrink sharply.
Traders are taking the guidance as a sign that Lilly can continue growing, even as the sector pares back its more optimistic forecasts. The stock’s rebound resets the short-term story following Tuesday’s drop — same market, just a shift in pressures, with investors sizing up who can handle them best.
The next major event to watch is the FDA’s April verdict on orforglipron. Until then, the market will probably react to updates on price cuts, patient numbers, and whether this quarter’s lift in Eli Lilly shares can sustain through upcoming sector news.
