- Price/Momentum: LLY closed around $862–863 on Oct 31 (up ~2.2% that day) [1] and has jumped ~9–10% over the past month [2]. The stock is near its 52‑week high (~$935) [3] with a market cap ~$773–817 billion (forward P/E ~56x) [4] [5].
- Earnings & Guidance: Eli Lilly’s Q3 report (Oct 30) crushed expectations – revenue $17.60 B (+54% YoY) and non‑GAAP EPS $7.02 [6]. Management raised FY2025 sales guidance to $61–63.5 B and EPS to $23.00–23.70 [7], well above the prior outlook. CEO Dave Ricks called it a “strong quarter … driven by continued demand for our incretin portfolio” [8].
- Weight-Loss Drug Boom: Lilly’s GLP-1 drugs (diabetes/obesity) are soaring. US sales of Zepbound (tirzepatide for weight loss) and Mounjaro (diabetes) smashed forecasts – e.g. Mounjaro sales ~ $6.5 B vs. $5.7 B est., Zepbound ~$3.6 B vs. $3.2 B [9]. Lilly now holds ~57% of US GLP-1 prescriptions (vs. ~43% for Novo Nordisk) [10]. International demand was especially strong: Guggenheim notes ex-US Mounjaro sales ~$1 B above estimates [11], and 75% of that outside-US demand came from out‑of‑pocket obesity patients [12].
- Pipeline & Approvals: Beyond diabetes, Lilly has major drugs coming. In Oct 2025 it won FDA approval for Inluriyo (imlunestrant) in breast cancer and EU approval for Kisunla (donanemab) in Alzheimer’s [13] [14]. Its oral GLP-1 pill orforglipron showed strong Phase III obesity results (≈12.4% body-weight loss) and is slated for regulatory filings this quarter [15]. These new products diversify Lilly’s growth beyond insulin and obesity.
- Strategic Moves: Lilly is expanding access and capacity. It just partnered with Walmart – self-pay patients can pick up Lilly’s Zepbound vials at Walmart pharmacies (starting mid-Nov) at LillyDirect pricing ($349/mo for starting dose) [16] [17]. LillyDirect already fulfills ~35% of new Zepbound prescriptions in the U.S. [18]. Lilly is also investing billions in manufacturing (new plants in India, Texas, Puerto Rico, etc.) and R&D (AI-driven drug discovery with Nvidia [19]).
- Analysts’ View: Wall Street is broadly bullish. Consensus is “Moderate Buy” – MarketBeat shows 15 buy, 9 hold, 1 strong-buy with 12-mo. target ~$940 (≈+9% upside) [20] [21]. Some big banks are even higher: Morgan Stanley ~$1,023, JPMorgan ~$1,050, and Jefferies just lifted its target to $976 after Q3 [22] [23]. StockAnalysis reports an average 12‑mo target ~$967 [24]. (By contrast, the stock trades near ~54× 2025 earnings [25], so almost all growth is priced in.)
Market Snapshot (pre-market Nov 3)
As of Oct. 31 close, Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) was around $862–864 (with after-hours ~864) [26] [27]. That’s up ~9–10% from early October [28]. Trading volumes have been heavy, and LLY remains near its 52-week high (~$935) [29]. MarketBeat notes LLY’s 50-day moving average is ~$780 [30], reflecting the recent surge. Institutional ownership is high (~82.5% by funds [31]) and sentiment is bullish.
Expert Take: Bahl & Gaynor portfolio manager Kevin Gade praises the quarter, calling the surge in international Mounjaro sales “a fantastic factor” and a driver of the beat-and-raise results [32]. Cantor Fitzgerald’s Carter Gould says Lilly delivered “the strongest Q3 earnings report [he’d] seen so far” [33]. These comments underscore robust product demand.
Blowout Q3 & Raised Guidance
Lilly’s Q3 (announced Oct 30) blew past forecasts. Revenue was $17.60 billion (+54% YoY) with EPS $7.02 [34], versus consensus ~$16.1 B/$5.9. Key GLP-1 drugs led the surge. The company raised FY 2025 guidance: now targeting $61–63.5 B in sales and $23.00–23.70 EPS [35]. That easily tops the prior guide ($60–62 B, $21.75–23.00) and analyst models (~$22.18 EPS).
CEO Dave Ricks hailed the results: “Lilly delivered another strong quarter, with 54% revenue growth … driven by continued demand for our incretin portfolio,” he said [36] (incretin = GLP-1 drugs). On the earnings call, management highlighted that global GLP-1 demand – especially from new markets (China, India, Brazil) – fueled the beat. Guggenheim noted Mounjaro ex-US sales were nearly $1B above forecast [37]. U.S. incretin volume soared ~62% YoY (slightly offset by modest price cuts) [38].
Wall Street Reaction: LLY stock jumped ~5% the next trading day (Oct 31) after the beat-and-raise. Jefferies immediately upped its price target to $976 (from $905) [39]. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan similarly cite strong topline momentum: targets $1,023 and $1,050 respectively [40]. Even BMO raised its view, boosting its target to $930 from $840. As MarketBeat reports, sell-side consensus now implies ~15–20% upside [41] [42].
Weight-Loss/Diabetes Drugs Driving Growth
Lilly’s powerhouse remains its GLP-1 “incretin” franchise. Mounjaro (for diabetes, also sold as Zepbound for obesity in the U.S.) and Trulicity/Jardiance reign. In Q3, Mounjaro revenue hit ~$6.5 B (109% YoY growth) [43], far above Street expectations. Zepbound pulled in ~$3.59 B (184% growth) [44]. (Combined, tirzepatide‐based products now account for roughly half of Lilly’s sales [45].) Lilly claims about 57% of all U.S. GLP-1 prescriptions, overtaking Novo’s Wegovy (vs. Novo’s ~43% share) [46].
The obesity/diabetes market is enormous and expanding. Analysts project the GLP-1 obesity market could reach ~$150 billion by the end of the decade [47]. Lilly and Novo are in a turf war: recently Novo’s Wegovy gained a temporary edge when CVS favored it on some formularies, but Lilly responded by slashing prices and boosting supply. Deutsche Bank’s James Shin notes Lilly’s tirzepatide showed superior weight-loss in trials (22% vs Wegovy’s 15% in head-to-head study [48]), lending confidence that Lilly can maintain leadership even amid price pressure.
Access Initiatives: To broaden uptake, Lilly is expanding patient access. It launched LillyDirect (telehealth + mail order) and just added Walmart pharmacies as pickup sites [49]. Starting mid-November, self-pay patients can collect Zepbound vials at ~4,600 Walmart stores – a first for Lilly’s mail-order program [50] [51]. The price ($349/mo for starting dose) matches LillyDirect rates [52]. LillyDirect already fulfils ~35% of new U.S. Zepbound scripts [53]. SVP Jennifer Mazur says the Walmart tie-up “streamline[s] access to prescribed treatment,” helping patients “reduce [their] burden” of chronic care [54]. Walmart’s pharmacy boss Kevin Host adds the pickup option makes it “easier to start and stay on” these medicines [55].
Pipeline & New Approvals
Beyond diabetes, Lilly is stocking a broader pipeline. In late 2025 the FDA approved Inluriyo (imlunestrant) for certain breast cancers, and Europe cleared Kisunla (donanemab) for Alzheimer’s (early stage) [56] [57]. The oral GLP-1 candidate orforglipron delivered strong phase-3 obesity results (on par with injectables) and Lilly plans global filings soon [58] [59]. If approved, that could launch in 2026 and provide a convenient, potentially higher-margin alternative to injections. Other pipeline moves: Lilly acquired gene-therapy and AI-focused biotechs (e.g. Verve, Scorpion) to diversify into heart disease, oncology, etc. [60] [61].
These new drugs help hedge against any slowdown in GLP-1. As one analyst notes, Lilly’s expanding pipeline “reduce[s] dependence on any single product category” [62]. Having multiple late-stage candidates – and vast manufacturing capacity coming online – gives investors comfort that growth isn’t a one-trick pony.
Analyst Outlook & Forecasts
Most analysts remain bullish on LLY. MarketBeat’s consensus (24 analysts) is a Moderate Buy with average 12‑mo target ~$940 [63]. The range is wide: lowest ~$700, highest ~$1,190 [64]. Notable recent revisions: Jefferies (Buy) to $976 [65]; BMO $930 (from $840) [66]; Erste Group upgraded to Buy on pipeline strength; UBS and Morgan Stanley lifted targets after Q3.
TechStock² (ts2.tech) reports “about 16 analysts” at Strong Buy with a $970 avg target [67]. StockAnalysis notes an average target ~$967 [68]. Even so, LLY’s forward P/E (~28x on 2026 EPS) is high for Pharma, reflecting sky-high growth expectations. If Lilly hits the midpoint of its new guidance (implied ~$23.5 EPS), 2026 E would be ~$28, making the current ~$862 price imply ~31x 2026 earnings – still far above industry norms [69] [70].
Consensus View: In short, analysts see further upside but caution that valuation is rich. As TechStock² notes, “most experts see further upside” but Lilly’s high valuation “leaves little margin for error” [71].
Risks & Valuation
The biggest risks aren’t financial but political/regulatory. Price-control talks in Washington (e.g. Trump’s pledge to cap GLP-1 costs) spooked investors in October, dragging LLY down ~4% on the news [72]. If new drug-pricing policies pass, Lilly could face pressure on its blockbuster prices. However, some analysts argue Lilly is better positioned than Novo: Lilly’s cost structure for Zepbound is lower, so it retains more profit per dose even at discounts [73]. Still, any broad healthcare reform is a wildcard.
Another risk: competition. Novo Nordisk (Wegovy) is pushing in, and others are entering GLP-1 space. Lilly is racing to keep the lead (tough as GLP-1 penetration is still only ~8 million U.S. patients out of a 170 million potential pool [74]). On the plus side, Lilly’s diverse late‑stage pipeline and $5B+ in new manufacturing give it staying power [75].
Finally, LLY’s valuation is lofty. It trades ~40–50× current earnings [76] (trailing P/E ~56 [77]). In a nutshell: the bad news (price caps, competition) is widely known, so any surprise would be a speed bump. On the other hand, if momentum continues, LLY could keep marching higher.
Outlook (Premarket Nov 3)
With no major market-moving events scheduled over the weekend, Monday’s action will likely hinge on continuation of the trends above. If broader stocks rise, LLY could extend its rally: analysts still see ~10–20% upside to consensus targets [78] [79]. A continued surge in GLP-1 sales or positive pipeline news (e.g. orforglipron FDA decision) could send the shares higher. Conversely, any fresh worries on pricing policy or economic jitters could cap gains.
The bottom line: Eli Lilly enters the Nov 3 open riding a wave of good news – blockbuster Q3, market-beating weight-loss drugs, and bullish forecasts. As one analyst put it, the stock is “in pole position” among growth names [80]. Investors should watch Monday’s premarket movers, but many believe LLY’s story has legs. Just remember, at these prices, Lilly needs to keep delivering blockbuster results to justify its lofty valuation.
Sources: Company filings and news releases; Reuters, Fierce Pharma, MarketBeat, TechStock² (ts2.tech), Investing.com, Zacks (Nasdaq), TIKR, and Yahoo Finance [81] [82] [83] [84] [85] [86]. (See citations.)
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