NEW YORK, May 15, 2026, 07:43 EDT
- Crude jumped over 3% with traders zeroing in again on the Strait of Hormuz risk premium.
- Early quotes showed Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Occidental, SLB, and Halliburton all trading up.
- The trade’s outcome depends on shipping flows picking up—not simply Friday’s oil action.
Energy shares in the U.S. surged to lead the market Friday, thanks to a more than 3% spike in oil prices. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Occidental Petroleum, SLB, and Halliburton all landed on the day’s watch list ahead of the New York session.
Brent crude moved up to $109.19 a barrel by 0925 GMT, Reuters said, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reaching $104.89. After meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, President Donald Trump warned that his patience with Iran was wearing thin. Vandana Hari, who runs Vanda Insights, noted attention had shifted squarely back to the current deadlock and the heightened risk of military flare-ups close to the Strait of Hormuz.
It’s relevant now: U.S. energy shares are once more acting as a real-time gauge of supply jitters. A jump in crude often pads producers’ cash flow, though if prices stay elevated, fuel gets pricier, inflation digs in, and demand can cool.
Shortly after 7:30 a.m. in New York, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) traded up 0.8%. Exxon moved 0.8% higher, Chevron picked up 0.3%, ConocoPhillips rose 1.3%, Occidental advanced 1.2%, SLB increased 0.7%, and Halliburton was showing a 0.6% gain in the early going.
This isn’t just a headline move. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude stocks dropped by 4.3 million barrels to 452.9 million barrels for the week ended May 8. Gasoline inventories took a similar hit, down 4.1 million barrels, and crude exports jumped 742,000 barrels per day. Bob Yawger, who heads energy futures at Mizuho, pointed out that the numbers hint at producers possibly ramping up drilling in response to higher prices.
Global oil supply dropped again in April, falling by another 1.8 million barrels per day to reach 95.1 million barrels per day, the International Energy Agency reported. The agency also noted a drawdown in observed oil inventories: down 129 million barrels in March, followed by a further 117 million-barrel decrease in April. Barrels per day remains the industry’s main gauge for daily oil production, consumption, or shipments.
For plenty of investors, Exxon and Chevron are still the go-to names. Both rank as the top U.S. integrated oil majors, pulling together production, refining, and trading. ConocoPhillips and Occidental, on the other hand, deliver a purer play on U.S. crude. When WTI clears $100, attention shifts to these two—traders weigh their drilling strategies closely.
SLB and Halliburton play a separate angle. These companies provide drilling, completion, and reservoir services to oil producers, so their stocks don’t just move on today’s oil price—they’re also sensitive to whether clients expect prices to remain strong and boost spending.
Traders betting on prediction markets weren’t expecting a fast resolution. On Polymarket, odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic getting back to normal by the end of May sat at just 6%. The probability improved, but only to 30%, for a return by the end of June. Polymarket also reflected a 63% chance that crude oil futures would reach $110 before June closed.
Capital Economics, in a note out Thursday, warned Brent could shoot past $150 a barrel and hold there through end-2027 if the Iran war spirals out of control. For a less dire scenario, the firm projects oil at $130 a barrel by mid-year, then dialing back after that.
The trade isn’t set in stone. The EIA’s newest outlook assumes that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will gradually pick back up in June, with Brent dropping to around $89 a barrel by the fourth quarter as inventory draws slow. That scenario trims the risk premium propping up the sector right now.
Friday’s breakdown looks straightforward: Exxon and Chevron cover the broad energy trade, while ConocoPhillips and Occidental are the plays for crude price sensitivity. SLB and Halliburton show where drilling budgets are going. Next steps? Watch for Hormuz shipping updates, the latest U.S. inventory numbers, and see if WTI keeps traders fixated above $100.
