New York, January 10, 2026, 10:43 EST — Market closed
- Exxon shares ended Friday up 1.38%, fueled by renewed chatter about a return to Venezuela.
- CEO Darren Woods stated that Exxon would entertain a comeback only if backed by stronger legal safeguards and revised regulations
- Upcoming catalysts: U.S. CPI data due Jan. 13, followed by Exxon’s quarterly earnings on Jan. 30
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) shares ended Friday up 1.38% at $124.61. CEO Darren Woods said the company is ready to consider reentering Venezuela, but described the country as “uninvestable” given its current regulations. At the same White House meeting, Chevron’s Mark Nelson claimed the oil giant could double its “liftings”—crude cargo shipments—and boost production by roughly 50% within 18 to 24 months.
The Venezuela factor is crucial now, hitting as Washington aims to revamp the country’s oil industry and possibly redirect more heavy crude to U.S. refineries. For oil stocks, this is primarily about supply — and supply shifts usually drive the next move in crude prices.
The weak price environment is also taking its toll. U.S. crude futures, or WTI, closed Friday at $59.12 a barrel—still under the $65 mark many producers say they need to break even. “$50 oil is really where production would start to fall,” noted Matthew Bernstein, vice president for North America oil and gas at Rystad Energy.
Exxon revealed that Woods told Trump Venezuela must overhaul its hydrocarbon laws, strengthen its legal framework, and offer lasting investment protections before Exxon would invest. Woods said, “If we look at the legal and commercial constructs … today it’s uninvestable,” and added that Exxon would require security guarantees before sending in a technical team.
Woods noted that Exxon’s assets were seized twice in Venezuela and that the company has been absent from the country for nearly 20 years. That past looms large over any fresh investments, despite the undeniable appeal of the resource base.
ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance said Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA likely requires restructuring and bank support before production can rebound sustainably. Chevron is currently the only U.S. major still active in Venezuela, making it the closest real-world example of what a “return” might entail.
Exxon is currently trading above its 50-day moving average of $117.88 and the 200-day average of $111.87, key levels that some traders watch as potential support if momentum slows. The stock’s relative strength index (RSI) hit 61, signaling solid momentum without being overbought.
The broader market lent support on Friday. The S&P 500 notched a record close, shrugging off a weaker-than-forecast U.S. jobs report that failed to shake confidence in Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year.
Venezuela remains a headline trade for oil investors. Exxon’s comeback depends on political stability, sanctions, and whether Caracas can provide protections solid enough to reassure boards and shareholders wary after previous nationalizations — plus if extra barrels risk dragging prices down.
Traders are set to focus on U.S. consumer price figures coming Tuesday, followed by the Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report on Wednesday. Both reports could shake up crude prices, which have been driving the action in energy stocks.
Exxon’s upcoming key event is its earnings release. The company notified regulators that it plans to report fourth-quarter 2025 results around 5:30 a.m. CT on Friday, Jan. 30, via a website update and an 8-K filing.
Monday’s open will reveal if the Venezuela news holds any weight or just fades as weekend chatter. After that, all eyes turn to Jan. 30, when Exxon reports. Attention will zero in on cash flow, buybacks, and how the quarter lined up with crude and product margins.
