New York, May 12, 2026, 07:14 EDT
- Figure Technology shares looked set to open higher following first-quarter numbers: record consumer loan marketplace volume, net revenue hitting $167 million, and Q2 volume guidance topping last quarter’s numbers.
- This isn’t just about an EPS beat—scale and volume are the drivers now. Jefferies bumped its price target up to $43 from $37, sticking with Hold.
- Here’s the upside: blockchain-based lending volumes keep expanding. On the flip side, valuation looks stretched, higher rates sting, and there’s plenty of housing-credit risk—especially with Fed-cut odds still slim, according to .
Figure Technology Solutions shares caught a premarket lift Tuesday after its Q1 numbers delivered what bulls have been looking for—ongoing loan growth, despite headwinds from rates. At 7:11 a.m. Eastern, MarketBeat quoted FIGR at $40.42 in after-hours action, marking a 3.73% rise from Monday’s close of $38.97.
The reason’s straightforward enough. Figure is projecting consumer loan marketplace volume for Q2 between $3.8 billion and $4.1 billion—up from $2.9 billion in Q1, and topping Jefferies’ previous expectation of $3.2 billion. For a marketplace lender, volume drives everything: more loans mean increased fees, a bigger data pool, and fresh incentives for both buyers and originators to stick around.
Q1 wasn’t just about beating the top line. Consumer Loan Marketplace volume shot up 113% year-on-year to $2.9 billion. Net revenue landed at $167 million, up 98%. Net income totaled $45 million, while adjusted EBITDA—profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and certain company-specific tweaks—jumped 192% to $83 million.
Investors seemed to favor the source of the volume this quarter. Figure Connect, the firm’s loan marketplace, hit $1.6 billion—accounting for 56% of its consumer loan marketplace volume. At quarter’s end, the company tallied 387 active partners and brought on board a record 80 new ones. First-lien production, referring to mortgages with top claim on a property, now represents 20% of total production.
Management doubled down on that theme, with CEO Michael Tannenbaum calling the results proof of the “resilience of our capital-light model.” That’s a key point for Figure, which is out to show it doesn’t need to pile loans onto its own balance sheet to grow. This is the simpler narrative for the stock today. GlobeNewswire
Bulls are betting that Figure is stepping out of its home-equity corner and building something much bigger in capital markets. Net take rate? 3.8%—that’s what Figure actually pockets per dollar running through its consumer marketplace. Cash and equivalents stood at $1.5 billion at the end of the quarter. Should Q2 volume reach the upper end of the company’s forecast, Q1 probably won’t look like a one-off; investors may see it as a reset point.
No shortage of red flags on the bear side. Figure remains tied to HELOCs—loans that ride on the back of homeowners’ equity. Lenders face layers: property prices, borrower quality, warehouse lines, appetite from loan buyers, even regulatory angles around digital assets—all factor in. Shares moved between about $25 and $78 over the last 52 weeks, so “steady compounder” isn’t the story here. GlobeNewswire
Rates push the divide further. Data from prediction markets puts the odds of the Fed standing pat in June at 96.7%—with Polymarket pricing in 96.8%, and Kalshi just behind at 96.5%. Figure’s volume pickup stands out against that backdrop, though it’s no signal that lending or funding costs will get a boost from policy shifts any time soon.
Sell-side views have hardly settled. Jefferies bumped up its price target to $43 from $37, citing robust volumes, yet left its Hold rating unchanged. Their note flagged just how scattered analyst targets are, ranging anywhere from $31 to $75. In short: consensus on Figure’s rapid growth, but little agreement on the payoff.
Peer reactions are all over the map. SoFi hit new highs in lending and member additions, yet came up short for some after its outlook failed to budge. Affirm pushed strong volume numbers too, but investors still zeroed in on credit health and the risk of missed payments. Upstart, caught in the same digital-lending cross-currents, faces similar scrutiny. What sets Figure apart for now: it handed investors a look ahead at growing volumes, rather than just the last quarter’s stats.
Longer-term context is key here. Figure hit the public market in September, pricing shares at $25 and pulling in $787.5 million through its IPO—good for a $5.29 billion valuation. Back then, Figure told Reuters it could originate home-equity loans in just 10 days, far outpacing the 42-day average across the industry. That pitch—speed—remains a core plank of the story.
The focus now shifts to the 8:30 a.m. Eastern earnings call. Everyone’s going to want to know: Is Q2 guidance pretty much locked in? Will the take rate stay put with Figure Connect picking up steam? What does first-lien lending do to margins, and is credit still looking solid? Right now, this morning’s move reflects confidence the company can deliver. The call needs to back that up.
