NEW YORK (12:00 PM ET, Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025) — Fintech stocks are commanding the spotlight at midday as investors juggle three fast-moving forces: a cooler U.S. inflation print that’s reviving risk appetite, a fresh burst of stablecoin momentum from regulated players, and an intensifying “everything trading app” arms race led by Coinbase and Robinhood.
The result is a split-screen fintech tape: higher-beta names tied to credit, crypto, and retail trading are leading, while parts of legacy digital payments are under pressure from analyst skepticism and competitive fears.
Midday market snapshot: higher-beta fintech leads
By noon in New York, broad risk sentiment is constructive — and fintech is, overall, running ahead of the market.
- Global X FinTech ETF (FINX) was up about 2% at midday.
- ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) was up roughly 2.7%.
- For context, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was up about 1.1% and Invesco QQQ (QQQ) about 1.8%.
Among closely watched U.S.-listed fintech stocks, midday action was being paced by the most rate- and sentiment-sensitive names:
- SoFi (SOFI) +~4.8%
- Affirm (AFRM) +~7.1%
- Upstart (UPST) +~8.1%
- Robinhood (HOOD) +~2.8%
- Coinbase (COIN) +~1.1%
Meanwhile, PayPal (PYPL) was down about 1.1% after a notable downgrade, even as other payments rails held steadier: Visa (V) was modestly higher and Mastercard (MA) was near flat.
The macro catalyst: cooler CPI resets rate expectations (and fintech cares a lot)
Fintech stocks tend to act like amplifiers of the macro cycle because many business models are sensitive to rates, funding costs, and consumer liquidity — especially BNPL, consumer lending, and parts of brokerage/crypto that thrive when risk appetite improves.
The market’s midday tone was shaped by November’s CPI report:
- The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in November (seasonally adjusted) and was up 2.7% year over year. [1]
- Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% in November and was up 2.6% over the year, according to the same release. [2]
Reuters also noted a key wrinkle for investors: October inflation data reflected a period when federal government operations were partially shut down, forcing some values to be imputed — an issue that can complicate month-to-month comparisons. [3]
Why this matters for fintech at noon:
- Softer inflation can support expectations that the Federal Reserve may have more room to ease later, which tends to benefit credit-driven fintech (lower funding pressure) and consumer spending rails (stronger discretionary demand). [4]
- It also typically boosts sentiment for higher-volatility fintech names — the same cluster leading today’s tape.
Today’s biggest fintech headline: SoFi launches a bank-issued stablecoin
The standout fintech development of Dec. 18 is SoFi’s move deeper into regulated crypto infrastructure.
SoFi announced the launch of SoFiUSD, describing it as a fully reserved U.S. dollar stablecoin issued by SoFi Bank, N.A., with the company positioning itself as a stablecoin infrastructure provider for banks, fintechs, and enterprise platforms. The company also stated that, with SoFiUSD, it is the first national bank to issue a stablecoin on a public, permissionless blockchain. [5]
Market response was immediate: SoFi shares jumped in midday trading as investors latched onto the combination of (1) stablecoin regulatory clarity, (2) SoFi’s bank charter advantage, and (3) potential B2B infrastructure revenue. [6]
The broader backdrop is the GENIUS Act, signed into law on July 18, 2025, which established a federal framework for payment stablecoins — including reserve backing expectations and regular reserve disclosures. [7]
What investors are betting on: a world where stablecoins increasingly function less like a “crypto trade” and more like programmable payment and settlement rails — especially for cross-border money movement, treasury operations, and 24/7 settlement. That’s a very different TAM than pure retail crypto trading.
Another stablecoin jolt: Intuit partners with Circle to embed USDC rails
Stablecoins weren’t just a SoFi story today.
Intuit (owner of TurboTax, QuickBooks, and Credit Karma) announced a partnership with Circle aimed at enabling USDC-based capabilities for faster, lower-cost, more global “money movement” experiences across Intuit’s platforms. [8]
Both stocks were higher around midday — Intuit (INTU) up about 1.7% and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) up about 2.8%.
Why this matters for fintech stocks broadly: it adds weight to the idea that stablecoins are migrating into mainstream finance workflows — not only within crypto-native firms, but inside mass-market financial software and consumer finance ecosystems.
Coinbase expands beyond crypto: stocks, event contracts, tokenized shares
If stablecoins are the “pipes” story today, Coinbase is the “product expansion” story.
Reuters reported that Coinbase is pushing into stock trading and event contracts (including via a partnership with Kalshi), as platforms compete to keep retail investors trading under one roof. Coinbase also said it plans tokenized stocks in the coming months, with the goal of enabling round-the-clock trading. [9]
This is more than a feature drop — it’s a strategic signal to markets that Coinbase wants to reduce dependence on crypto spot volumes and compete more directly with Robinhood and Interactive Brokers. [10]
The forecast angle is embedded in today’s coverage: Reuters cited a note from Citizens Financial analysts estimating prediction markets are generating nearly $2 billion in revenue and could expand five-fold by 2030 as institutional participation grows. [11]
The risk investors can’t ignore: event contracts remain a regulatory gray zone, with disputes over whether oversight sits solely with the CFTC or whether state regulators can assert authority by framing them as betting-like products. [12]
Robinhood doubles down on sports-style event contracts
Coinbase isn’t alone. Robinhood is also pressing its advantage in “trading-as-entertainment.”
Reuters reported Robinhood is expanding its sports betting-style offering in the U.S., adding more event contracts tied to professional sports outcomes, with availability extending into January 2026.
At midday, Robinhood shares were higher, reflecting how investors are valuing optionality in new product lines that could deepen engagement — even as the regulatory framework continues to evolve.
Coinbase adds a policy heavyweight: George Osborne to lead advisory council
Alongside product expansion, Coinbase is also investing in influence.
Reuters reported Coinbase appointed former U.K. finance minister George Osborne to lead its internal advisory council as the company seeks to build policy relationships beyond the U.S., including in Britain and the EU. [13]
For equity investors, this is a reminder that crypto-adjacent fintech increasingly trades on regulatory trajectory as much as quarterly numbers — especially now that stablecoin legislation has moved into enforceable reality in the U.S. [14]
PayPal: down on a Morgan Stanley downgrade — and the “agentic commerce” debate
While parts of fintech are rallying, PayPal is today’s notable laggard.
Morgan Stanley downgraded PayPal to Underweight from Equalweight and cut its price target to $51 from $74, citing concerns that span product execution and structural pressures — including competitive dynamics in checkout and the long-term implications of “agentic commerce.” [15]
That “agentic commerce” mention matters because PayPal has been positioning itself as a key payments layer for AI-driven shopping experiences — including a previously announced partnership with OpenAI focused on checkout and agentic commerce inside ChatGPT. [16]
How to read the market split: investors are rewarding fintechs that look like infrastructure winners (stablecoin rails, always-on settlement, multi-asset trading ecosystems) and punishing those perceived as facing a harder re-acceleration path in core checkout.
Block: partnerships as the growth engine — with Afterpay still central
Block sits in the middle of today’s fintech narrative: part payments ecosystem, part BNPL, part consumer app, and increasingly partnership-led.
A Zacks note published on Nasdaq highlighted new and expanded partnerships involving Square — including integrations aimed at syncing retail catalogs, sales, and inventory across in-store and online channels — and also pointed to Afterpay partnerships ahead of the holiday season. The same piece referenced a Grubhub partnership that adds Cash App Pay as a checkout option for Grubhub customers. [17]
At midday, Block shares were modestly higher, consistent with the broader risk-on tone. [18]
What to watch next: the three themes that could drive fintech into the close
With the market digesting a major inflation print and a packed fintech headline tape, three drivers look most important for the remainder of the session and into year-end:
1) Stablecoin mainstreaming — from “crypto feature” to settlement layer
SoFi’s bank-issued stablecoin and Intuit’s USDC integration reinforce the notion that stablecoins are becoming transaction infrastructure — not just speculative instruments. [19]
2) The retail “super-app” trade
Coinbase’s push into stocks, tokenized equities, and event contracts raises the stakes for Robinhood and incumbents — and shifts investor focus toward platforms that can win on product breadth and engagement without inviting unmanageable regulatory exposure. [20]
3) Credit sensitivity (BNPL and AI lending)
Moves in Affirm and Upstart underscore how quickly sentiment can swing when macro data points toward easing inflation and potentially friendlier rate expectations. [21]
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
1. www.bls.gov, 2. www.bls.gov, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. investors.sofi.com, 6. www.barrons.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. investors.intuit.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. m.uk.investing.com, 16. newsroom.paypal-corp.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. investors.sofi.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.bls.gov
