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IBEX 35 week ahead: Oil shock risk, Santander jitters and fresh data in focus on Spain’s BME
1 March 2026
3 mins read

IBEX 35 week ahead: Oil shock risk, Santander jitters and fresh data in focus on Spain’s BME

Madrid, March 1, 2026, 08:33 CET — The market is closed.

  • Spanish stocks with exposure to oil are on watch Monday, following new headlines out of the Middle East and fresh warnings over possible supply disruptions.
  • Santander’s drop on UK credit jitters late last week keeps banks firmly in focus.
  • Tuesday brings Spain’s unemployment figures alongside the euro zone’s “flash” inflation print; U.S. payrolls hit on Friday.

Spanish shares get back to work Monday, energy and travel names drawing attention as U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran spark worries over a broader conflict—plus possible turmoil at the Strait of Hormuz. Barclays analysts warn Brent “could hit $100” a barrel if supply risks intensify. Reuters

The IBEX 35 slipped 0.73% to finish at 18,360.80 on Friday, according to BME’s Madrid exchange. Up 2.68% over the last month, the benchmark recently touched a 52-week peak at 18,573.80—putting traders on edge for any new volatility as March begins.

Spain’s market is jumpy, with banks swelling to over 40% of the IBEX—well above the 24% share they held back in 2022—according to Cinco Días. Santander alone now makes up about 17.7% of the index, based on the report. “The dependence on a small number of companies leaves the market more exposed to abrupt moves,” Ignacio Cantos, chief investment officer at Atl Capital, told the paper. Cinco Días

Credit jitters made themselves felt late last week, landing hardest on financials. Spain’s IBEX, loaded with banks, lagged European peers Friday. Santander slipped 2.8%, as fresh headlines from a UK mortgage provider unsettled the sector.

Market Financial Solutions, a UK mortgage lender, collapsed—setting off a scramble to figure out who was on the hook and what the exposure looked like. Santander flagged “material exposure” as a financing partner. Citi analysts, on the other hand, pointed out that putting a loan together isn’t the same as eating the whole risk. “When you see cockroaches, there are probably more,” said Joe Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading. Reuters

Acciona Energia has changed tack on shareholder payouts, slashing its planned 2025 dividend by 93% to just 0.03 euros a share as it looks to defend its credit ratings. The renewables company outlined plans to offload roughly 2 billion euros in assets this year. Investment is set around 900 million euros, with a goal of trimming net debt below 3 billion euros, down from the current 4.16 billion euros.

Acciona’s parent has tapped an investment bank to explore next moves for its energy arm, with a potential delisting of Acciona Energia on the table. Chief executive Jose Manuel Entrecanales described public markets as offering “intrinsic value,” though he emphasized the company is weighing options to boost shareholder returns. Reuters

Amadeus is back in focus. The travel tech group’s fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA landed at 577.9 million euros—handily ahead of the 555.6 million euro consensus. Directors signed off on a 500 million euro share buyback as well. The company flagged some uncertainty tied to artificial intelligence shaking up travel software. “Amadeus was uniquely positioned to orchestrate the AI-enabled travel ecosystem,” CEO Luis Maroto said. Reuters

IAG, which trades in Madrid as well, dropped its own capital return news into the travel sector mix. The British Airways parent topped full-year profit estimates, but the stock tumbled 6% Friday—analysts zeroed in on the absence of profit targets for 2026 and flagged fuel cost risks. The company pledged it will hand back 1.5 billion euros to investors over the next year, kicking things off with a 500 million euro buyback due to wrap up by the end of May. “Since Q3 we have seen a rebound,” CEO Luis Gallego said, citing solid demand from premium and corporate customers. Reuters

Trading in Madrid swung sharply Friday. Acciona soared 12.28% to close at 246.80, smashing its previous record. Telefónica finished up 5.62%, with Merlin Properties just behind at 5.60% higher. On the downside, IAG plunged 7.83%. Grifols lost 3.97%, and Santander slipped 2.78%.

This week’s packed calendar zeroes in on the market’s main pressure points: rates and growth. On Tuesday, investors will see Spain’s February unemployment change and the euro zone’s flash inflation estimate, an early read that tends to move the needle. The week wraps with global PMI surveys and the U.S. jobs report, per S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Spain’s HCOB manufacturing PMI drops Monday at 08:15 GMT, according to FXStreet data. The monthly gauge tracks whether factory activity is picking up or pulling back.

But for the IBEX, what happens in the early part of the week may hinge on two tough-to-predict factors: the fallout from the Market Financial Solutions credit scare—basically, are more “who’s holding what” headlines waiting in the wings—and the potential for the Middle East shock to keep oil prices elevated long enough to push up inflation expectations. Any traction on either front, and banks and airlines could quickly trade in opposite directions.

Plenty on deck this week: Spain’s labor numbers and the euro zone’s inflation print both land Tuesday, then the U.S. February jobs update hits at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday—a release that tends to shake up global rate expectations for the week ahead.

Stock Market Today

  • Dollar Weakens as US May CPI Matches Expectations Amid Geopolitical Tensions
    June 10, 2026, 12:57 PM EDT. The US dollar index slipped 0.13% after May consumer price index (CPI) data showed inflation rising 4.2% year-on-year, matching forecasts and easing concerns of aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening. Core CPI rose 2.9%, the quickest pace in seven months. Despite this, crude oil prices jumped 1%, raising inflation fears that may prompt Fed rate hikes. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran boosted safe-haven demand for the dollar, limiting losses. Swap markets price in no expected rate change at the next Fed meeting. Meanwhile, the euro gained 0.12%, supported by expectations of a 25 basis point European Central Bank (ECB) hike, although oil's rise threatens the Eurozone economy. The yen weakened further against the dollar amid rising Japanese producer prices and hawkish Bank of Japan signals, despite oil price pressures on Japan's import-reliant economy.

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