New York, Feb 23, 2026, 14:25 EST — Regular session
- Bonds rallied, pulling the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate back under 6%.
- Mortgage lenders and homebuilders dropped as U.S. equities took on a risk-off tone.
- Eyes are on consumer confidence data, with Fed speakers also in focus as traders gauge the direction for rates.
Mortgage rates slid back into the 5% territory as the average top-tier 30-year fixed dropped to 5.99%, down roughly 5 basis points from Friday, according to Mortgage News Daily. Matthew Graham, the publication’s author, noted there’s “no new news causing the improvement,” but flagged the risk that lenders may reprice swiftly if bonds head the other way. (Mortgage News Daily)
This is shaping up to be a key stretch for the housing market, with spring’s selling rush approaching and borrowing costs still carrying much of the weight on demand. A steady dip under 6% could ease monthly payments for buyers, and might finally pull some sidelined refinancers back into the mix.
The impact lands directly on what mortgage lenders and homebuilders are watching. When rates drop, buying can pick up and the pain from rate locks eases. But it’s not just the destination — how rates move counts. A sudden move in a single day? Lender pricing gets jumpy, and demand doesn’t respond cleanly.
Another daily reading delivered a similar signal. NerdWallet, using Zillow’s rate data, pegged the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 5.88% APR on Monday—a 4 basis-point dip from Friday’s level. APR, which folds in the rate plus select lender fees, allows for direct loan comparisons. (NerdWallet)
Treasury yields slipped, with investors wrestling over the implications of a Supreme Court decision that overturned President Donald Trump’s earlier tariffs. The move left markets uncertain about potential refunds and new tariffs. According to Reuters data, benchmark 10-year yields hovered around 4.071%, down 1.4 basis points for the day. “Markets are currently focused on the short-term impact – namely, lower inflation and interest rates falling more quickly,” said Alberto Conca, chief investment officer at LFG+ZEST. (Reuters)
Housing stocks saw little relief. Shares of Rocket Companies shed 4.7%, settling at $17.14. UWM Holdings slipped 1.4% to $4.56. D.R. Horton dropped 0.6%, Lennar fell 1.2%. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF lost 2.0%. Bond prices held up, nudging the iShares MBS ETF up 0.3%. Financials weighed on the majors as Wall Street broadly declined. (Reuters)
Here’s part of what’s going on: rates might be coming down, but risk appetite is dropping even quicker. Mortgage lenders and builders continue to behave like cyclicals, especially while tariffs and policy uncertainty are steering the tape.
Still, the risks aren’t hard to spot. Should tariff talk spill over into lasting inflation, or if investors begin baking in bigger government deficits, yields could jump—and mortgage rates won’t be far behind. Any slim pickup in affordability might disappear before buyers even lock in a deal.
Tuesday brings the Conference Board’s U.S. consumer confidence numbers, out Feb. 24 at 10:00 a.m. ET. Shifts in this report can jolt rate forecasts if they suggest a change in the growth picture. (The Conference Board)
Traders are tuning in for any new cues from central bank officials, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee set to speak Feb. 24 at 7:00 a.m. CT. Markets are adjusting expectations around the timing of potential rate cuts. (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
Rocket Companies will deliver its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings after the bell on Feb. 26. The conference call is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET, putting mortgage names in focus as analysts watch for any sign that rates below 6% are helping both loan volumes and profitability. (Rocket Companies)
