NEW YORK, March 12, 2026, 16:15 EDT
Mosaic Company surged nearly 7.5% to $31.35 in late trading Thursday—a standout gain amid a sluggish U.S. session—as traders piled into fertilizer stocks on worries that turmoil near the Strait of Hormuz could choke off global supply. The S&P 500, by comparison, dropped 1.5% for the day.
This spring, Mosaic faced the crucial planting season while still grappling with sluggish U.S. phosphate demand weighing on its numbers. If crop nutrient prices climb and stay elevated, the upside for earnings could arrive sooner than Wall Street had penciled in for a company so focused on phosphate and potash—the nutrients growers rely on to boost production.
Last week, Reuters flagged the Strait—a crucial Gulf shipping corridor—as the route for roughly a third of the world’s fertilizer trade. Prices at the New Orleans import hub have already surged, moving up from $516 a metric ton to as much as $683. StoneX analyst Josh Linville called the timing of the disruption “could not happen at a worse time” for buyers just ahead of spring planting. Reuters
The rally Thursday stretched well beyond Mosaic. CF Industries surged roughly 13.2%, Nutrien added close to 5.7% right before the bell—clear signs traders were reacting to a broader pricing jolt across the sector, not just news out of one company.
Mosaic surfaced with more company updates. Its Brazilian arm and Rainbow Rare Earths announced Wednesday they’ll move forward on a prefeasibility study at the Uberaba rare-earths project in Brazil, after seeing encouraging results from an initial economic assessment. Chief Executive Bruce Bodine pointed to the possibility this could “unlock additional value” tied to the group’s phosphate operations. Mosaic Investors
The company’s most recent earnings report, released Feb. 24, landed well below expectations. Mosaic turned in adjusted earnings of 22 cents a share—analysts had been looking for 47 cents. Management pointed to farmers trimming nutrient purchases thanks to squeezed budgets and an early winter.
So the price reaction isn’t going unnoticed. Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein told Reuters last week that if the disruption lingers, nitrogen prices might even double, while phosphate could jump 50% from where they are now. He said prices may “go back to the highs of 2022.” Reuters
The trade, though, isn’t a one-way street. Should Hormuz shipping recover in short order—or if growers start cutting back on fertilizer again to shore up cash—the pop in Mosaic shares could unwind just as quickly. The company’s latest results had already flagged soft demand ahead of this supply shock.
Fertilizer shares bucked the trend on a bruising day, as U.S. equities broadly retreated. Crude oil shot higher, stoking fresh fears that escalating conflict in the Middle East might spur another inflation wave. That left fertilizer stocks among the rare standouts for buyers.
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