NEW YORK, July 2, 2026, 06:01 EDT
- Nasdaq 100 futures trailed Dow and Russell 2000 futures by around 40 basis points near 5:48 a.m. EDT, with the tech sector weighing on the headline move.
- The June jobs report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET. Reuters-polled economists are looking for 110,000 jobs and 4.3% unemployment.
- U.S. stocks will trade Thursday. Markets shut Friday, July 3, for the Independence Day holiday.
- Chip names stayed under pressure, with the U.S. semiconductor index off 6.3% on Wednesday and South Korea’s KOSPI dropping 7.8% Thursday.
U.S. stock-index futures showed a mixed open Thursday in New York premarket. Dow and Russell 2000 futures were a bit higher, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped ahead of a jobs report that could influence rate hike expectations before a three-day market pause. Nasdaq’s premarket runs from 4:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. ET, with the main session at 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.
The S&P 500 was not the main story. It was the divergence below. At around 5:48 a.m. EDT, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.35%. Russell 2000 futures edged up 0.06%. Dow futures added 0.04%. That put Nasdaq 100 futures 41 basis points below small caps and 39 basis points off the Dow.
| U.S. futures snapshot | Last | Change | % change | Time shown |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Sep 26 | 52,687.00 | +19.00 | +0.04% | 05:48:24 |
| S&P 500 Sep 26 | 7,538.75 | -4.75 | -0.06% | 05:48:33 |
| Nasdaq 100 Sep 26 | 29,990.25 | -104.00 | -0.35% | 05:48:51 |
| Russell 2000 Sep 26 | 3,036.90 | +1.80 | +0.06% | 05:48:10 |
Why it matters: Traders aren’t just watching for payrolls today. The main question is whether the big AI stocks can handle another day in the red after a huge rally last quarter. The Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped 6.3% on Wednesday, giving back some of its 87% gain from Q2. In South Korea, the KOSPI tumbled 7.8% Thursday, pressured by a 14% slide in SK Hynix KRX:000660 and a 9% decline in Samsung Electronics KRX:005930. “A hangover from Wall Street,” said IG market analyst Fabien Yip. Reuters
The payrolls print hits the tape at 8:30 a.m. ET. That’s the June Employment Situation, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar. U.S. markets are set to close the next day for July 3 Independence Day.
Reuters-surveyed economists see nonfarm payrolls up 110,000 after May’s 172,000 rise. Calls are all over the map, from 25,000 to as high as 200,000, so the knee-jerk move could be choppy even if the final number is unclear. Unemployment is seen sticking at 4.3% for a fourth straight month.
JPMorgan’s trading desk set out its market scenarios ahead of the data. They gave the best odds—40%—to a 100,000 to 130,000 payroll gain, which they said would push the S&P 500 up 0.5% to 1%. But they saw a 25% chance payrolls land at 70,000 to 100,000, which could mean a 0.5% to 1.25% fall in the S&P 500.
| June payrolls outcome | JPMorgan probability | S&P 500 reaction map |
|---|---|---|
| 100,000 to 130,000 jobs | 40% | Up 0.5% to 1% |
| 70,000 to 100,000 jobs | 25% | Down 0.5% to 1.25% |
| Below 70,000 jobs | 5% | Down 1.25% to 2% |
| Above 160,000 jobs | 5% | -0.5% to +1.5% |
The jobs report is getting a boost from the World Cup this time. Goldman Sachs economists think the tournament might tack on 40,000 U.S. payroll jobs in June, mostly in leisure and hospitality, retail, and transportation. They expect those numbers will drop once the temporary gigs end.
Dan North at Allianz Trade Americas said the labor market is in a “no hire, no fire” stretch, according to Reuters. ING’s James Knightley said the current run of strong jobs data “could come to an end at any point.” Shruti Mishra at Bank of America Securities said “downside labor risks” haven’t shown up. Reuters
Fed policy stays tight. The central bank kept its 3.50%-3.75% target range on June 17 and said inflation is still above the 2% mark. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said Wednesday he was sticking to the 2% inflation target and would “disappoint” anyone hoping for easier policy. Federal Reserve
A solid jobs number might actually hurt duration-heavy growth stocks. LSEG data seen by Reuters shows traders still think there’s at least one more rate hike coming this year. Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank, said investors could focus more on the June CPI reading out July 14, since inflation data might offer a clearer signal.
SanDisk NASDAQ:SNDK was down 2.6% before the bell and Arm Holdings NASDAQ:ARM dropped 2.1%. Bending Spoons NASDAQ:BSP slid 3.1% after its shares surged 40% in their Nasdaq debut.
Meta Platforms NASDAQ:META was back in focus for AI cloud stories on Wednesday, after Reuters said Bloomberg News reported the company is building a cloud unit to sell its extra AI computing power. Shares of CoreWeave NASDAQ:CRWV dropped 10.8% and Nebius NASDAQ:NBIS lost 12.4% as traders worried Meta could cut back its use of third-party AI cloud services. D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria said Meta “may not need them anymore.” Reuters
