Updated: December 25, 2025
Natural gas markets are spending Christmas Day in holiday mode—with many European venues closed and U.S. trading thinned out—yet the underlying story is anything but quiet: weather-driven demand risk is rising into late December, LNG flows remain a decisive swing factor, and storage levels on both sides of the Atlantic are back in focus.
The cleanest “real-time” read on Europe came in the final pre-holiday session: by 10:21 GMT, the benchmark Dutch TTF front-month was €28.20/MWh (about $9.75/mmBtu), modestly higher as traders priced the possibility that a colder spell could lift heating demand. [1]
At the same time, the calendar matters. ICE Endex (one of Europe’s key trading venues for energy derivatives) lists December 25 and 26, 2025 as closed for Christmas, which helps explain why price discovery is concentrated in the sessions immediately before the holiday break. [2]
In the U.S., the most-watched benchmark—NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures—saw volatile, thin pre-holiday trading in the last session before Christmas. The front-month January contract ended down 16.6 cents at $4.242/mmBtu, after touching $4.593 earlier in the session (a near two-week high). [3]
And in global LNG, the key price signal from Asia ticked higher: spot LNG for February delivery into Northeast Asia was assessed around $9.60/mmBtu, up slightly on the week, with South Korea emerging as a notable marginal buyer amid colder forecasts. [4]
Natural gas prices at 10:21 GMT: the holiday snapshot
Here’s what the market was signaling around the 10:21 GMT reference point on the last liquid pre-holiday session:
- Europe (TTF front-month):€28.20/MWh at 10:21 GMT, inching higher with colder-weather risk in focus. [5]
- United States (Henry Hub, front-month futures):$4.242/mmBtu in thin pre-holiday trading, after a spike to $4.593 earlier in the same session. [6]
- Asia (spot LNG, Feb Northeast Asia):$9.60/mmBtu, higher week-on-week, but still down about 34% since the start of 2025 amid generally soft regional demand. [7]
What’s moving natural gas today: weather risk meets a holiday liquidity vacuum
Holiday sessions often exaggerate price moves—both up and down—because fewer participants are active, and small order flow can push benchmarks more than usual. That dynamic showed up clearly in the U.S., where market participants pointed to lower holiday liquidity as a contributor to volatility. [8]
1) Weather: colder forecasts are the headline catalyst
Two regions matter most for near-term price direction:
Europe: The late-December outlook was described as “bullish” by an LSEG analyst in the pre-holiday European session, with expectations for higher consumption in Germany and France due to a “steep drop in temperature” over the Christmas period. [9]
United States: Meteorologists cited in the U.S. market report expected a slight nationwide cooling trend through January 8, with heating degree days rising from 358 to 377 day-on-day (still below the “normal” level of 447, but moving in the direction that tends to support demand). [10]
2) LNG: exports keep tightening the U.S. balance
One reason U.S. natural gas has stayed sensitive to any incremental cold signal is that LNG exports are pulling a large, steady volume of gas out of the domestic system.
- Average feedgas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants were reported at 18.4 Bcf/d so far this month, above the 18.2 Bcf/d monthly record referenced for November. [11]
That matters because, in winter, the U.S. market’s “balancing lever” is often storage. If exports are strong and a cold stretch hits, prices can gap quickly—especially around contract expiry and holiday schedules.
3) Storage: Europe is drawing down earlier than many would like
Europe entered winter with solid inventories, but the drawdown pace is now the story.
- Gas Infrastructure Europe’s public dashboard showed the EU at 66.1% full as of 06:00 CEST on Dec. 24, 2025 (about 755.22 TWh stored), reflecting continued withdrawals. [12]
- Reuters-based reporting in the same pre-holiday price note cited EU storage at 66.49% full. (Differences like this typically reflect timing/cutoff conventions.) [13]
The takeaway isn’t the second decimal place—it’s that storage is no longer “comfortably high,” which raises sensitivity to cold snaps, unplanned outages, and pipeline/LNG flow surprises.
Europe: why €28/MWh still matters even with markets closed
Even though ICE Endex lists Dec. 25–26 as closed (meaning fewer fresh reference trades), the last traded levels still anchor commercial decisions—especially in LNG.
- ICE Endex’s published schedule shows Dec. 25 and Dec. 26, 2025: closed, and Dec. 24: early settlement window (with designated settlement periods listed). [14]
In practice, this “price anchor” effect often shifts attention to:
- Weather model updates
- Norwegian supply reliability
- LNG send-out and shipping flexibility
- Storage withdrawal pace
Pre-holiday reporting also emphasized that strong LNG supply and Norwegian pipeline flows were expected to counter some of the cold-driven demand risk. [15]
United States: Henry Hub near $4.25, with expiration dynamics in play
U.S. natural gas is also wrestling with a calendar issue: the January contract is near expiration, and liquidity can migrate toward the next prompt month.
In the final pre-holiday session:
- The January contract traded down to $4.242/mmBtu (down 3.8% on the day), after reaching $4.593 earlier. [16]
- Trading volume was reported as 19,541 lots, underscoring thin conditions. [17]
LSEG’s demand projections cited in the same report pointed to a step-up in total Lower-48 demand (including exports) from 127.9 Bcf/d this week to 136.4 Bcf/d over the next two weeks. [18]
Separately, Texas—one of the most critical producing regions—has been emphasizing operational scrutiny. The Texas Railroad Commission said it is stepping up inspections of natural gas storage facilities, noting that Texas storage volumes were at a record level as of late November. [19]
Global LNG: Asia firms slightly, Europe stays the “sink,” and Russia remains the wild card
Asia: South Korea appears as a marginal buyer
Asia spot LNG prices edged up as colder weather forecasts boosted near-term interest in South Korea:
- February Northeast Asia spot LNG: $9.60/mmBtu, up from $9.50 the week prior. [20]
- One LNG pricing executive cited expectations for South Korean temperatures to fall to two-year lows on Dec. 26, and said five cargoes had been diverted from China to South Korea in recent weeks. [21]
Even with that uptick, the broader theme remains: spot prices in Asia are far below early-2025 levels, reflecting weaker underlying buying. [22]
Europe vs. Asia: who “wins” flexible Atlantic cargoes?
The same Reuters-based LNG report highlighted a key setup: with Asia and North Africa showing limited appetite for spot volumes in early Q1, incremental LNG supply is expected to flow disproportionately into Europe. [23]
That’s one reason European gas can stay relatively stable—even with colder weather—as long as LNG continues to show up on time and Norway runs smoothly.
Russia: delays, sanctions, and rerouted cargoes keep risk premium alive
Two Russia-related themes stood out in today’s reporting:
1) Russia’s LNG expansion timeline is slipping. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia has delayed its 100 million tons/year LNG output target by several years due to Western sanctions. Updated strategy figures referenced output of 90–105 million tons by 2030 and 110–130 million tons by 2036, while Russia’s current LNG share was described around 8% with an ambition of 20% by 2030–2035. [24]
2) Trade flows are being watched closely. Reuters separately reported that a tanker named Kunpeng loaded LNG from Russia’s Portovaya facility—under U.S. sanctions—and that it had previously delivered a Portovaya cargo to China’s Beihai terminal earlier this month, based on ship-tracking data. [25]
Add in deal-making: Malaysia’s Petronas signed a 10-year LNG supply deal with China’s CNOOC for 1 million metric tons per year, reinforcing Asia’s long-term contracting trend even as spot markets remain subdued. [26]
Forecasts and analysis published on Dec. 25: what the models and analysts are saying
1) U.S. storage expectations: the next EIA print is delayed
If you’re looking for the official U.S. storage update, note the calendar shift:
- The EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report schedule shows the next release set for Monday, Dec. 29, 2025, reflecting the Christmas holiday period. [27]
That means the market will lean more heavily on private estimates and weather-driven demand models in the interim.
2) Analyst estimate: a deeper draw as winter demand bites
A Dec. 25 analysis on Investing.com projected a -158 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Dec. 19, which would put inventories at 3,420 Bcf, described as 125 Bcf below 2024 and 70 Bcf under the five-year average. [28]
Treat this as an estimate, not official data—but it matches the broader narrative: storage is tightening, and the market is more weather-sensitive.
3) Short-term price setup: technical analysts flag $4.25 as a key level
A Dec. 25 technical forecast from FXEmpire framed natural gas near $4.25 as the “Wednesday closing price” reference into the holiday shutdown, highlighting nearby resistance levels and a market still sensitive to headlines and liquidity. [29]
Technical views aren’t fundamentals—but in thin holiday sessions, technical levels can influence how traders place orders when markets reopen.
4) 2026 outlook: EIA sees “around $4” wholesale pricing, with exports doing heavy lifting
Looking beyond the holidays, the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook narrative points to Henry Hub averaging around $4/mmBtu next year, with production growth limited and LNG exports rising. [30]
That aligns with mainstream consumer-facing summaries that expect U.S. wholesale natural gas prices to be meaningfully higher in 2026 than 2025. [31]
What to watch next after Christmas
As liquidity returns (and European markets reopen after Dec. 26 closures), these are the near-term catalysts most likely to move “natural gas price today” headlines:
- European cold spell verification
If temperatures drop as forecast, withdrawals could accelerate and tighten the prompt market—especially if LNG arrivals slip. [32] - U.S. weather through early January
Forecasts through Jan. 8 were already pointing cooler; further model shifts can move Henry Hub quickly, particularly around contract expiration dynamics. [33] - LNG flow continuity
With U.S. feedgas running near record levels, any unplanned export outage—or a further ramp—can meaningfully change the U.S. storage trajectory. [34] - The delayed EIA storage report (Dec. 29)
The first official storage print after Christmas is a key “reset” moment for positioning. [35] - Russia-related supply and sanctions headlines
Russia’s delayed LNG expansion plans and watchful monitoring of cargo movements keep geopolitics in the pricing mix. [36]
References
1. www.worldenergynews.com, 2. www.ice.com, 3. www.bairdmaritime.com, 4. www.brecorder.com, 5. www.worldenergynews.com, 6. www.bairdmaritime.com, 7. www.brecorder.com, 8. www.bairdmaritime.com, 9. www.worldenergynews.com, 10. www.bairdmaritime.com, 11. www.bairdmaritime.com, 12. www.gie.eu, 13. www.worldenergynews.com, 14. www.ice.com, 15. www.worldenergynews.com, 16. www.bairdmaritime.com, 17. www.bairdmaritime.com, 18. www.bairdmaritime.com, 19. www.mrt.com, 20. www.brecorder.com, 21. www.brecorder.com, 22. www.brecorder.com, 23. www.brecorder.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. ir.eia.gov, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.fxempire.com, 30. www.eia.gov, 31. www.investopedia.com, 32. www.worldenergynews.com, 33. www.bairdmaritime.com, 34. www.bairdmaritime.com, 35. ir.eia.gov, 36. www.reuters.com
