NEW YORK, July 16, 2026, 1:07 p.m. EDT
- Nebius dropped 12.6% to $174.31 in early U.S. trading.
- CoreWeave NASDAQ:CRWV fell 5.2%. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA slipped 2.5%.
- Nebius kept its capital spending guidance at $20 billion to $25 billion under its partner-funded model.
Nebius dropped 12.6% to $174.31 as of 1:07 p.m. EDT, wiping out a 2.8% rise from Wednesday. U.S. markets stayed open.
The slip is key since the new model goes after Nebius’s biggest value issue. AI buildouts need a lot of cash. Still, there was no mention of the new 2026 capex forecast in the release.
Nebius reported around $2.5 billion in spending for the first quarter. That’s just 10% to 12.5% of what the company has outlined for the whole year. The rest of the projected spend means Nebius could be facing $5.8 billion to $7.5 billion in quarterly bills for the rest of the year.
| Capital measure | Disclosed figure | Investor calculation |
|---|---|---|
| Earlier 2026 capex guide | $16–$20 billion in March Reuters | $18 billion at midpoint |
| Latest 2026 capex guide | $20–$25 billion in May Reuters | $22.5 billion midpoint, a 25% increase |
| First-quarter capex | About $2.5 billion Reuters | 10%–12.5% of the latest forecast |
| Implied second-to-fourth-quarter average | No company forecast here | $5.8–$7.5 billion per quarter |
| July partner model | No new capex number Nebius | Short-term capex impact not quantified |
The numbers are not from the company. They use the current guidance and don’t reflect any update. This rate comes out to 2.3 to 3.0 times the spending from the first quarter.
Under the model, partners pay for, own and run the data centers and hardware. Nebius handles the architecture, software, cloud, and sales, and still takes on service levels.
Nebius described the model as high-margin. Possible terms are revenue shares, licenses, commissions, and committed capacity. The company gave no figures on partner names, capacity, or financial targets.
CEO Arkady Volozh pushed the partner-focused model, saying Nebius offers “a much wider customer base with much better margins” versus bare-metal agreements. Nebius
Reflection is set to buy over $1 billion in Nebius capacity, the company said Tuesday. The deal covers Nvidia’s newest chips. “The need for open models is clear,” Reflection technology chief Ioannis Antonoglou said. Reuters Demand concerns have eased.
Markets were under pressure. The Nasdaq dropped roughly 0.9%, and chips took a bigger hit, with the semiconductor index down 3.5% at one point. “The chip rally is cooling off,” said Shiraz Ahmed, CEO of Sartorial Wealth. He said AI capital spending is still running high. Reuters
Still, Nebius dropped harder than either CoreWeave or Nvidia. CoreWeave slipped 5.2%, Nvidia gave up 2.5%. The gap shows the market is thinking about optionality beyond a 2026 funding reset.
Nebius brought in $4.34 billion in convertible debt in March. At the time, management said prepayments would fund 60% of growth and the balance would come from equity and debt. By May, the capex midpoint was up 25%.
Risks: Partners might not fund sites or keep up with Nebius’s service requirements. Returns could fall if prices drop, customers leave or more capital is needed.
To re-rate, investors want to see named partners, actual capacity in use, and clear unit economics. This release shifts how they finance, but leaves the 2026 bill the same for now.
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