NEW YORK, July 10, 2026, 12:08 (EDT)
Nvidia was up 3.1% at $209.14 as of 11:52 a.m. EDT Friday, pushing its market cap to $5.10 trillion. The gain tacked on about $155 billion since Thursday’s finish, coming as one of its biggest customers detailed plans to scale back use of outside chips.
Meta Platforms NASDAQ:META is set to start making its Iris AI chip in September, with plans to boost its compute power to 14 gigawatts in 2027, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters. The memo says Meta will invest up to $145 billion in AI infrastructure this year. “You can’t become an AI titan if you are dependent on another company for chips,” said Forrester Research NASDAQ:FORR analyst Mike Gualtieri. Reuters
That’s why Friday’s move counts. Nvidia tacked on more market cap in a morning than Meta’s total planned AI infrastructure spend for the year, and almost doubled Nvidia’s own record $81.6 billion in Q1 revenue. The numbers aren’t all the same—market value, spending, and sales—but it points to how fast the market is pushing long-term expectations higher.
| Measure | Amount | Nvidia’s Friday gain ÷ measure |
|---|---|---|
| Nvidia’s market-cap jump | About $155 billion | 1.00 times |
| Meta’s 2026 AI spend cap | $145 billion | 1.07 times |
| Nvidia projected Q1 2027 sales | $81.6 billion | 1.90 times |
The bet is simple. Nvidia’s sales can keep climbing if overall AI computing demand grows quick enough, even if it loses share in certain customer jobs. Friday’s price move suggests that view is holding for now. But it’s not a done deal.
Index concentration is amplifying the effect. Nvidia made up 7.58% of the S&P 500 as of Thursday’s close, with Meta at 2.14%, according to holdings for the SPY ETF NYSEARCA:SPY. Based on Friday’s moves, the two stocks added about 0.38 percentage point to the index, but SPY as a whole only gained 0.13%. The equal-weight S&P 500 ETF NYSEARCA:RSP climbed 0.33%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 fund NASDAQ:QQQ dropped 0.07%.
| Market measure | S&P 500 weight | Friday move | Estimated S&P 500 lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia | 7.58% | up 3.14% | up 0.24 point |
| Meta | 2.14% | up 6.50% | up 0.14 point |
| Nvidia and Meta together | 9.72% | — | up 0.38 point |
| SPY fund | — | up 0.13% | — |
| Equal-weight RSP fund | — | up 0.33% | — |
| Nasdaq-100 QQQ fund | — | down 0.07% | — |
Basic math shows the rest of the cap-weighted S&P 500 knocked about 0.25 percentage point off the index, ignoring minor tracking errors. Still, the equal-weight fund managed a gain. The weakness was in other big names, not spread across the typical stock — a gap the main index number can hide.
Chips traded in a tight range. Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD ticked up 0.2%. Broadcom NASDAQ:AVGO was flat. Benchmark Research’s Cody Acree wrote that hyperscaler spending is set to “still more than double,” so Nvidia sales could keep growing even with share losses at Meta. Barron’s
Nvidia’s supply chain gave off mixed signals again. SK Hynix KRX:000660, which makes the bulk of high-bandwidth memory for AI chips, started trading 14% above its U.S. offer price. “The most crowded trade in the world right now,” Great Hill Capital chairman Thomas Hayes said, talking about global semiconductors. Dan Coatsworth, who runs markets at AJ Bell (LON:AJB), said the memory rally “might have just taken a breath rather than peaked.” Reuters
China could add some upside, but the outlook is murky. Beijing is considering letting leading local AI firms buy under 200,000 of Nvidia’s H200 chips, Reuters reported, far below earlier industry requests. Nvidia, for its part, is forecasting zero data-center computing sales to China for the second quarter.
The downside argument is getting more real. Iris could grab big inference jobs — when an AI model generates replies — from Nvidia, especially if custom chips for a client cut costs. Wider use of custom processors, slower spending on infrastructure, or tighter China restrictions would weigh on volumes and prices. Index concentration works both ways: if Nvidia’s Friday move reversed, the S&P 500 would lose about 0.24 percentage point by the same math.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co NYSE:TSM, Nvidia’s key contract chipmaker, reports Q2 results on Thursday. Investors are watching for updates in sales, spending and price guidance. For Nvidia, the focus now is less on whether AI spending rises and more on how much new revenue sticks.
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