New York, June 13, 2026, 09:02 (ET).
- Brent finished Friday at $87.33 a barrel. WTI closed at $84.88. Traders weighed a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal.
- Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said a first agreement could come as soon as within 24 hours, as reopening the Strait of Hormuz is key in the negotiations.
- Analysts said falling oil inventories and large reserve releases are making markets exposed if Gulf flows don’t return to normal soon.
Oil dropped to the lowest since early March as traders saw rising chances for a US-Iran peace deal that could restart traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and cool an energy shock that’s dragged on for months. Brent crude finished at $87.33 a barrel, off 3.37%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate settled at $84.88, down 3.23% and the weakest close since April 17.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Saturday that the U.S. and Iran have reached a framework on a deal after more than three months of fighting. “We are closer to a peace deal than ever before,” he said on X. Sharif said Pakistan is ready for an electronic signing, with technical-level talks set for next week. Reuters reported the draft memorandum would reopen the strait and lift the U.S. Navy blockade on Iranian ports, with nuclear talks to come. Reuters
Markets are staying jumpy on every headline, with the deal still unfinished and some key issues unsettled. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Friday the memorandum isn’t signed and could shift, and Reuters said the last talks should center on nuclear and economic topics. “What’s got the market going down is the Iranians saying there is a memorandum of understanding,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital. Reuters
Oil’s slide comes as a surprise for traders, with prices still under $100 even with the Strait of Hormuz—key for about a fifth of global oil and LNG trade—in play for weeks. Bloomberg Opinion’s Javier Blas, writing for Moneycontrol, named China’s slump in imports as the top reason. Blas cited Vortexa data that put China’s crude tanker imports at 6.7 million barrels a day last month, almost 40% lower than its 2025 average. Moneycontrol Fortune reported separately, citing customs data, that China’s crude imports in May hit about 7.8 million barrels a day, a level not seen in nearly 10 years.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Friday that around 7 million barrels of oil a day are still being shipped out of the Persian Gulf with help from the U.S. military, or about half the amount that has been stuck in the Strait of Hormuz since the war started. “We have a military effort that we’ve not talked a lot about, which started more recently to get cargoes out,” Wright said at a Bloomberg Energy event in Houston. Reuters
The buffer is narrowing. U.S. crude inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, dropped to 791 million barrels for the week ending May 29, Reuters reported. That’s the lowest since February 2024 and off nearly 64 million barrels since the war began. The U.S. is drawing down 172 million barrels from the SPR as part of a broader, IEA-coordinated emergency release of 400 million barrels. “We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels,” Exxon Mobil senior vice president Neil Chapman said. He warned prices could spike if stocks keep falling. Reuters
Pressure is starting to show up for consumers and in markets. U.S. gasoline came down from $4.56 on May 21 to $4.11 this week. That has helped boost consumer sentiment in early June, but worries about inflation are still high. Reuters The next hurdle for oil is whether a deal can actually get tankers moving through Hormuz. ING analysts said if shipping hasn’t restarted before late July, stocks and rising seasonal demand could send oil to $120–$130 per barrel.
