Houston, Feb 13, 2026, 13:29 (ET) — Regular session
- Brent crude hovered close to $68 a barrel, barely budging. WTI stuck near $63 following Thursday’s steep drop.
- Risk appetite found some support after a softer U.S. inflation reading, though traders still watched for signs of fresh OPEC+ supply possibly hitting from April.
- All eyes on the March 1 OPEC+ meeting, with traders weighing the shifting dynamics tied to Iran, Russia, and Venezuela.
Oil held firm Friday, regaining ground after a softer U.S. inflation print blunted an earlier slide triggered by fresh OPEC+ supply chatter. By 12:22 p.m. ET, Brent crude inched up 11 cents to $67.63 a barrel, while U.S. WTI stuck at $62.84. Both contracts, though, remained on course for weekly declines, still reeling from Thursday’s nearly 3% plunge. “Looks like inflation is stabilizing,” said Dennis Kissler, senior VP of trading at BOK Financial. He pointed out crude’s persistent $5-to-$7-a-barrel “geopolitical premium”—a nod to ongoing disruption risks. Reuters
Inflation figures are moving the needle for oil, given the direct link to interest rate views and the dollar—factors that tweak demand assumptions at the edges. The Labor Department’s latest numbers show Consumer Price Index up just 0.2% in January, missing estimates, as gasoline fell 3.2% for the month. “A noisy report,” said Edward Jones economist James McCann. Reuters
Oil tumbled Thursday, with Brent ending down 2.71% and WTI off 2.77%. The drop followed the International Energy Agency’s cut to its demand forecast, plus a hefty jump in U.S. crude inventories—EIA data showed stocks surging 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million, well above what Reuters’ survey had penciled in. “The fact that President Trump continues to negotiate with Iran would lead to a reduction of geopolitical risk,” said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates, who also noted the market was eyeing extra barrels out of Venezuela. Reuters
OPEC+ is eying a return to oil output hikes from April, according to three sources familiar with the discussions. Eight of the group’s producers are set to gather on March 1. After boosting quotas by roughly 2.9 million barrels per day between April and December 2025, the coalition—which includes OPEC and partners like Russia—hit pause on increases for the first quarter of 2026. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak commented, “Starting from around March and April, demand is gradually increasing.” Reuters
The IEA isn’t pulling any punches—despite outages, its data still shows an oversupplied market. They project global supply topping demand by 3.73 million barrels per day in 2026, which amounts to roughly 4% of total demand. The agency notes “economic uncertainties and higher oil prices” are dragging on consumption. As for output, there’s more coming not just from OPEC+ but also the U.S., Guyana, and Brazil. Reuters
On Friday, Washington shook up the supply landscape by loosening sanctions on Venezuela’s energy sector, issuing two broad licenses that give oil giants like Chevron, BP, Eni, Shell, and Repsol the green light to run oil and gas projects in the country. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said oil sales after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s capture had already topped $1 billion—and that figure might climb by another $5 billion in the coming months. The U.S. will hold on to the proceeds for now, though, until Venezuela puts together what Wright called a “representative government.” Reuters
Geopolitical tensions aren’t front and center, yet they’re still baked into pricing. The Kremlin confirmed the next set of Ukraine peace talks is lined up for next week. Meanwhile, three sources familiar with the situation said U.S. officials have floated a Monday-Tuesday trilateral session in Miami.
Crude’s bearish setup hasn’t changed: fresh supply is coming online, demand growth is slowing, inventories keep stacking up — and OPEC+ could start raising output again, while Venezuela edges back into the market. On the flip side, the old worry’s not gone. Any renewed tension with Iran, or a breakdown in talks, could slam the “premium” right back onto prices in a hurry.
March 1 brings the next big checkpoint for traders with the OPEC+ meeting. Between now and then, Iran negotiations, Venezuelan export news, and updates on Ukraine’s peace efforts are all poised to shape the mood heading into next week.
