NEW YORK, March 2, 2026, 13:27 (EST) — Regular session
Monday saw oil prices jump sharply, as Brent crude futures gained $4.04, or 5.5%, settling at $76.91 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed $3.35, or 5%, to hit $70.37.
Crude now commands a “risk premium”—extra dollars tacked on as traders hedge against potential supply shocks—while the Strait of Hormuz, responsible for more than 20% of the world’s oil flow, looms large. Citi is projecting Brent to stay in the $80-$90 range over the next week. Goldman Sachs pegs the live risk premium at $18 a barrel. JPMorgan figures exports via the strait have dropped to roughly 4 million barrels a day, down from the typical 16 million. If shipments don’t rebound soon, Brent could push past $100, according to Wood Mackenzie. “The world could handle it for one or two weeks,” said Macquarie’s Vikas Dwivedi, though he cautioned that price pressure escalates if disruption drags on. Reuters
Brent briefly spiked to $82.37—marking the highest since January 2025—before giving up some ground. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, along with Tehran’s response, triggered Gulf shutdowns and tangled up shipping routes. Traders pointed out that any lasting rally could stoke inflation and push fuel costs higher. “For now, this is a geopolitical shock, not a systemic crisis,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior analyst at Phillip Nova. Reuters
Brent serves as the top global crude benchmark, while WTI reflects U.S. light sweet oil. That spread tends to stretch when traders start questioning how quickly barrels can shift locations, or how fast refiners are able to swap them out.
OPEC+ signed off on a 206,000 barrel per day production hike starting in April, but sources say Saudi Arabia has already bumped up its own output and exports by roughly 500,000 bpd over the past several weeks. “Prices will respond to developments in the Gulf and the status of shipping flows, not to a relatively small increase in output,” noted Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy’s head of geopolitical analysis. UBS oil analyst Giovanni Staunovo added, “Real barrels being added to the market will be a fraction of it.” Reuters
Fuel markets are feeling the strain. In Asia, jet fuel and diesel cash premiums surged to $4 and $4.25 a barrel for spot cargoes, according to Reuters, while European diesel margins expanded by roughly 26% in the latest session. “Europe will have to pull more from the SG straits and NE Asia,” said Ivan Mathews, Vortexa’s head of APAC analysis, citing tightening supplies ahead of Asia’s maintenance period. Reuters
Crude has a tendency to pivot sharply. Should tanker traffic restart and Gulf export lanes clear up, a significant slice of the war premium might vanish just as swiftly as it piled on.
Right now, traders are glued to shipping trackers, checking out freight and insurance quotes, and scanning for hints that spot cargoes might be in shorter supply. The physical flow could drive the next shift, not what’s happening on the futures screen.
The American Petroleum Institute will release its weekly stock data on Tuesday in the U.S., followed up by the Energy Information Administration’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, set for 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday. Unexpected moves in crude and fuel stocks from these reports have a way of shaking up prices.
