New York, March 22, 2026, 11:55 EDT
Ondas Inc. dropped 6.42% Friday, ending the session at $10.06. The autonomous systems and private wireless firm updated its early 2025 results and stuck by its revenue forecast for 2026. Almost 87 million shares changed hands.
Why does this matter? Ondas has its final Q4 and full-year results coming up on March 25, but Friday’s filing revealed the improved profit outlook was largely down to a shift in warrant-liability value—that’s accounting related to warrants, giving holders a shot at buying shares in the future—instead of any increase to its sales guidance. The amended 8-K from Friday spelled it out: only net income and adjusted EBITDA projections were tweaked after they went back and refined that accounting calculation, while revenue expectations stayed exactly where they were.
Ondas expects the revaluation to add about $102 million to its quarterly and annual results. Final numbers are set to come out Wednesday, with a conference call on tap for 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
Ondas now expects fourth-quarter revenue to land between $29.1 million and $30.1 million, beating its earlier forecast of $27 million to $29 million. For the full year, the company projected revenue in the range of $49.7 million to $50.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA—a non-GAAP metric that management says excludes financing, taxes, and certain other items—remains forecasted as a quarterly loss of $9.9 million to $9.4 million.
Investors now have a tricky balance on their hands. Revenue moved higher, yet with next week’s report looming—and a burst of defense and drone contracts fueling 2026 forecasts—execution risk is coming into sharper focus.
Ondas reported holding around $551 million in cash as of Dec. 31. Just weeks later, the company brought in another $1 billion through a registered direct offering that wrapped up Jan. 12. With that capital in place, Ondas is looking to expand its autonomous-systems platform.
Ondas wrapped up its Rotron Aerospace buyout earlier this month, paying roughly $6.7 million in cash alongside 3.33 million shares. Not long after, the company picked up INDO Earth Moving, shelling out $5.66 million in cash and 5.49 million shares for the deal. The INDO agreement could tack on as much as $140 million more in milestone stock payouts. Ondas also joined forces with Heidelberg, rolling out a first-stage project to develop drone-defense and security tech in Germany and Ukraine.
Chief Executive Eric Brock called the INDO deal a source of “immediate revenue production” and highlighted its “operating leverage.” Turning to the Heidelberg project, Brock pointed to Europe’s “urgent need to protect critical infrastructure” from drone threats. Ondas Inc.
The risks aren’t hard to spot. According to SEC filings, Ondas committed to registering shares from recent transactions for resale. Sellers have daily limits on how much they can trade—Rotron, specifically, also faces some lock-up terms—but with shares in the mix, that’s still a supply overhang to watch.
Ondas faces a tug-of-war: upbeat revenue targets on one side, nagging doubts over earnings quality on the other. The company’s March 25 report should make it clearer—can Ondas really move toward that $170 million to $180 million revenue goal for 2026 on more stable operating ground, or is it just riding the benefit from revalued warrants?
