NEW YORK, August 9, 2026, 12:03 p.m. EDT
- Shares finished at $363.86 on Friday, up 9.7% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite rose 5.2%.
- PANW fell 0.9% Thursday following China’s product review, but rebounded Friday, ending up 0.3% higher than its Wednesday close.
- The share price is 5.2% higher than the average analyst target. Fiscal fourth-quarter earnings will be reported on September 1.
U.S. cash markets did not open on Sunday. Shares of Palo Alto Networks closed at $363.86 on Friday, an increase of 1.2% for the day. The stock rose 9.7% week over week.
PANW finished the week trailing both CrowdStrike and Zscaler in this peer set based on Friday-to-Friday closes, but nonetheless surpassed the gains seen in the wider tech sector rally.
| Security | July 31 close | August 7 close | Weekly move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palo Alto Networks | $331.83 | $363.86 | up 9.7% |
| CrowdStrike Holdings NASDAQ:CRWD | $190.86 | $214.42 | up 12.3% |
| Zscaler NASDAQ:ZS | $151.20 | $168.68 | up 11.6% |
| Fortinet NASDAQ:FTNT | $161.95 | $159.64 | down 1.4% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,373.85 | 26,690.62 | up 5.2% |
China’s cyberspace regulator began its review on Thursday, pointing to worries over national security and critical infrastructure. The authority did not specify any products, vulnerabilities, or potential sanctions.
The stock dropped 0.9% on Thursday before gaining 1.2% on Friday. Shares ended 0.3% higher than their closing level before Wednesday’s announcement. That limited movement stands out as the key takeaway from investors this week.
Palo Alto does not break out revenue from China independently. The Asia-Pacific and Japan segment accounted for $1.099 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue, representing 11.9% of the company’s total $9.222 billion. This regional share provides context for exposure to the area, but it does not indicate specific China sales.
The underlying growth is more moderate than headline numbers suggest. The initial breakdown below removes announced acquisition impacts. This is a calculated figure, not an organic metric defined by the company.
| Q3 fiscal 2026 metric | Reported result | Acquired contribution | Calculated remainder | Approx. underlying growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.002 billion, up 31% | $388 million | $2.614 billion | 14.2% increase |
| Next-Generation Security ARR | $8.1 billion, up 60% | $1.6 billion | $6.5 billion | 28.4% higher |
| Remaining performance obligation | $18.4 billion, up 36% | $1.8 billion | $16.6 billion | 22.7% greater |
Even with this rough measure, recurring metrics continue to outperform revenue, backing up the premium valuation. It further demonstrates the impact CyberArk and Chronosphere had in boosting reported growth.
Management’s fiscal fourth-quarter guidance once more increases the performance expectations. The projected midpoints call for double-digit sequential growth in each of four key metrics.
| Metric | Q3 actual | Q4 company guidance | Midpoint sequential change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.002 billion | $3.345–$3.355 billion | +11.6% |
| NGS ARR | $8.1 billion | $8.90–$8.95 billion | +10.2% |
| Remaining performance obligation | $18.4 billion | $20.9–$21.0 billion | +13.9% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.85 | $0.96–$0.98 | +14.1% |
The outlook covers the acquired companies. Full-year revenue is projected between $11.415 billion and $11.425 billion. Growth is forecast at 24%, with an adjusted free-cash-flow margin of 37.5%.
The consensus among analysts tracked by The Wall Street Journal is still optimistic. Out of 56 ratings, 44 are listed as Buy or Overweight, making up 78.6%, even as the number of analysts covering the stock rose noticeably during the timeframe.
| Analyst recommendation | Three months ago | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Buy | 31 | 37 |
| Overweight | 5 | 7 |
| Hold | 4 | 9 |
| Underweight | 1 | 2 |
| Sell | 1 | 1 |
| Consensus | Buy | Overweight |
The price-target distribution provides less backing. PANW is currently 5.2% higher than the consensus target and stands 6.6% above the median estimate. Significant upside remains mainly at the bullish extreme.
| Target measure | Target | Implied move from $363.86 |
|---|---|---|
| Average | $345.82 | -5.0% |
| Median | $340.00 | -6.6% |
| High | $433.00 | +19.0% |
| Low | $207.00 | -43.1% |
Chief Executive Nikesh Arora outlined the demand narrative in June, saying customers were looking to Palo Alto “to secure their AI deployments at scale.” The firm later increased its forecasts for yearly revenue and profit. Palo Alto Networks
PANW is not set to release results next week. Cisco Systems NASDAQ:CSCO will post its earnings after markets close on Wednesday, providing insight into corporate technology spending. July consumer price figures will be released Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Palo Alto’s report is due September 1.
Risks: Beijing may extend its investigation or limit buying. The company has not disclosed China revenue. Acquisition costs contributed to a GAAP operating loss of $183 million last quarter, even as adjusted cash flow stayed strong.
Market moves suggest investors continue to value recurring growth ahead of exposure to China. That view held firm through the review. However, at $363.86, September’s results need to support both the company’s growth outlook and its deal strategy.
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