MEXICO CITY, July 2, 2026, 14:01 CST
- Peso hovered around 17.47 per dollar, gaining 0.42%, as U.S. payrolls climbed by 57,000 in June.
- The U.S. won’t renew USMCA as is, so the deal stays active for now. Another U.S.-Mexico negotiating round is set for the week of July 20.
- Light-vehicle sales in Mexico climbed 5.3% in the first half to 754,394 units, the most for any first-half period since INEGI began tracking in 2016.
The Mexican peso climbed on Thursday as the dollar slipped after a soft U.S. jobs report. But traders are looking at a split setup—short-term U.S. rate risk is down, but USMCA auto risk could ramp up later in the year.
The peso was up 0.42% against the dollar in early afternoon trading in Mexico City, changing hands around 17.47 after opening close to 17.56. The currency had slipped 0.42% on Wednesday, finishing the day near 17.55, according to market data cited by Milenio.
The move flipped what happened in the previous session. FXStreet said Wednesday USD/MXN climbed to 17.53, after reaching 17.56 earlier, as the peso aimed for a second day of losses. Traders were reacting to comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and weaker U.S. numbers.
Non-farm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 57,000 for June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The jobless rate came in at 4.2%. Revisions to April and May knocked 74,000 jobs off earlier figures. Labor-force participation edged down to 61.5%.
| Measure | Latest data | Market read |
|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | 17.47; peso up 0.42% | Peso clawed back nearly all of Wednesday’s slide |
| U.S. payrolls | +57,000 in June | Dollar gave up ground after payrolls missed estimates |
| U.S. payroll revisions | April-May cut by 74,000 | Banco Base said rate-hike bets dropped |
| Banxico rate | 6.50% | Carry appeal stayed after June 25 hold |
Banco Base economist Gabriela Siller said the peso gained as the weighted dollar index slid 0.52%, the biggest daily drop since May 6. The bank’s note added markets now expect the next 25-basis-point Fed hike on Dec. 9 instead of Oct. 28 and have stopped pricing in two increases this year.
The Reuters poll was softer for investors holding long positions in longer-dated peso trades. The median 12-month call from 24 forex analysts put the peso at 17.78 per dollar, or a 1.7% fall from Tuesday’s mark around 17.48. Out of 11 who answered an extra question, six said the peso could head lower over the next year.
Michael Pfister at Commerzbank (ETR:CBK) said the peso’s strength comes from hopes about the U.S. economy, “from which Mexico should benefit.” Analysts at Deutsche Bank AG (ETR:DBK) said Banxico’s policy stance hurt the peso’s carry trade appeal. The bank said it is now neutral on MXN and prefers the Brazilian real. Reuters
The trade risk still hangs. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the U.S. “did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form,” but the agreement remains in effect while the three countries keep talking. The USTR said U.S. and Mexican officials plan to meet again the week of July 20 for a third round. United States Trade Representative
Autos are the sticking point. Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said talks are hung up on tighter auto rules of origin. “We wouldn’t allow our auto industry to be at a disadvantage,” Ebrard told Reuters. Reuters
This matters since local car demand is still beating last year. INEGI reported Mexico sold 126,778 light vehicles in June, up 7.6% from a year ago. For the first half, sales hit 754,394, up 5.3%. That’s higher than any first-half figure on INEGI’s 2016-2026 chart.
The top five light-vehicle sellers grabbed 53.90% of Mexico’s market in the first half, according to Banco Base.
| Company | Google Finance ticker | Mexico H1 market share | Annual change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan Motor | TYO:7201 | 16.85% | down 0.92% |
| General Motors | NYSE:GM | 12.85% | up 2.47% |
| Volkswagen AG | ETR:VOW3 | 8.69% | up 1.50% |
| Toyota Motor | TYO:7203 | 8.24% | up 3.10% |
| Kia Corp | KRX:000270 | 7.27% | up 3.61% |
For listed automakers, the peso matters for both local sales and exports. Mexican sales are up, but export-chain rules could tighten. A stronger peso lowers the value of dollar revenue for exporters and for suppliers that still pay out costs in pesos.
Hedging prices are still cautious. Banco Base gives the one-month forward at 17.5087, six months at 17.7229, and a year at 17.9806. A one-month call option that covers peso drops past 19.50 was at a 0.62% premium.
Banco Base set the USD/MXN range forecast for Thursday at 17.39 to 17.58. The firm noted that lower U.S. liquidity from Thursday afternoon, due to the holiday, could make currency swings bigger.
