NEW YORK, July 10, 2026, 11:24 EDT
Plug Power Inc. NASDAQ:PLUG dropped 5.5% to $2.25 late Friday morning after Susquehanna lowered its 12-month target price to $2.50 from $3.75. The cut took $1.25 off the target on about 1.40 billion shares, slicing around $1.75 billion from the broker’s implied equity value. That’s about 56% of Plug’s current $3.13 billion market cap. These are target numbers—not an actual market loss.
It matters this morning as Plug was headed for its fourth loss in a row, falling 3.25% Thursday. The Nasdaq Composite was off 0.25% Friday. The price action points to investors focusing on valuation, cash flow, and margins over fresh project announcements.
Orica Ltd. ASX:ORI has placed a 50-megawatt electrolyzer order for its Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub in Australia. The project uses a proton-exchange-membrane, or PEM, electrolyzer to split water and produce hydrogen. The project’s final investment decision means the sponsor is moving forward. Plug CEO José Luis Crespo said the deal “reflects the confidence our customers place in Plug’s technology.” Orica executive Germán Morales said the hub will help ensure “the reliable, lower-carbon supply of critical inputs.” Plug Power
Scale and cash timing don’t match here. The deal makes up less than 16% of Plug’s deployed electrolyzer base, now at more than 320 MW. Orica says construction should start in 2026, with first hydrogen set for early 2029. Orica’s net spend for the project is 245 million to 283 million Australian dollars through 2029. That number is not Plug revenue, and neither company spelled out Plug’s order value or gave any date for when Plug will log the sale.
Broker targets are now split. Morgan Stanley NYSE:MS analyst David Arcaro on Thursday bumped his price target up to $1.65 from $1.50, but kept his Underweight call, saying the stock should lag. The firm said it’s “updating its model and valuation ahead of Q2 earnings.” Susquehanna held its Neutral stance, but made a bigger price cut Friday. markets.businessinsider.com
| Broker view | Old target | New target | Target change | New target vs. $2.25 | Implied equity-value shift* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna rates Neutral | $3.75 | $2.50 | -33.3% | +11.1% | -$1.75 billion |
| Morgan Stanley is Underweight | $1.50 | $1.65 | +10.0% | -26.7% | +$210 million |
| Simple midpoint of both calls | $2.63 | $2.08 | -21.0% | -7.8% | -$770 million |
Figures based on about 1.40 billion shares. Implied value equals the target price times the share count. This does not represent a company forecast.
The two-call midpoint now sits at $2.08, about 8% under the stock. Morgan Stanley raised by 15 cents, but that’s not much next to Susquehanna’s $1.25 cut. The net midpoint drops 55 cents. With the same share count, that’s about $770 million less in implied equity value.
Plug’s latest numbers show why investors are cautious. Revenue for the first quarter was up 22% to $163.5 million. Gross margin narrowed losses, now at negative 13%, better than negative 55% a year ago. But Plug used $150 million in cash from operations and had $223 million in unrestricted cash at the end of the quarter. That spend was 67% of its quarter-end cash—just a simple math check, not a future cash runway. Plug still says it’s aiming for positive EBITDAS in the fourth quarter, a metric it defines to exclude interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and share-based pay.
Sector-wide losses hit Friday. Ballard Power Systems Inc. NASDAQ:BLDP, FuelCell Energy Inc. NASDAQ:FCEL and Bloom Energy Corp. NYSE:BE each dropped more than the Nasdaq.
| Company | Last price | Friday move | Market value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plug Power Inc. NASDAQ:PLUG | $2.25 | fell 5.5% | $3.13 billion |
| Ballard Power Systems Inc. NASDAQ:BLDP | $3.10 | down 4.2% | $0.93 billion |
| FuelCell Energy Inc. NASDAQ:FCEL | $20.59 | dropped 10.5% | $1.12 billion |
| Bloom Energy Corp. NYSE:BE | $235.73 | slipped 8.3% | $75.31 billion |
U.S. shares priced around 11:09 a.m. EDT; numbers are rounded.
The broad selloff makes it tougher to pin Friday’s drop on just Plug. But Susquehanna’s downgrade added extra pressure, and Plug shares were already slipping before that call hit.
The range isn’t one-way. Quicker electrolyzer order conversion, stronger Q2 margins, and using less cash might make $2.25 too conservative, but if projects slip, cash burn stays high like in Q1, or financing is harder to get, shares could drift closer to Morgan Stanley’s $1.65 target. The economics and timing for the Orica order are still the biggest unknowns.
Q2 numbers are next up. Investors want to see less hype and more real progress — booked revenue, gross profit, unrestricted cash, not just big project signings before year-end.
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