NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 11:59 a.m. ET / Market Closed
Silver prices are holding near historic highs this weekend after an explosive year-end surge pushed the white metal into fresh record territory. Spot silver was around $79.39 per ounce late Saturday morning in New York, following a sharp jump over the past 24 hours. [1]
With U.S. stock markets closed for the weekend, investors are using the downtime to reassess what has become one of 2025’s most dramatic commodity stories: silver’s sprint from an industrial workhorse to a momentum-driven, macro-sensitive asset that is now reacting to the same forces that propelled gold to new records—rate expectations, currency swings, and geopolitical risk. [2]
What happened in the last 24–48 hours
The latest leg higher unfolded during Friday’s post-holiday session, when trading volumes were thin and price moves were amplified across markets.
- Silver broke above $77 for the first time and set fresh records, with Reuters reporting spot silver reached $77.40 and was up sharply on the day, extending a staggering triple-digit gain for 2025. [3]
- A separate Reuters update described silver surging about 9% and printing a record around $78.53 per ounce as the precious-metals complex collectively rallied. [4]
- Wall Street finished near all-time highs in a quiet, low-conviction session, and U.S.-listed precious-metals miners (including silver names) rose as silver and gold hit fresh records. [5]
- Reuters also published a timely explainer on how silver is traded—from London’s physical OTC market to futures, ETFs, bars, and miners—reflecting heightened mainstream investor interest. [6]
The net effect: by the time the weekend arrived, silver wasn’t merely “up”—it had become a defining year-end macro trade.
Why silver is surging: the three big drivers investors are watching
1) The Fed narrative is back in the driver’s seat
Silver does not pay interest, which makes it highly sensitive to the direction of real yields and the expected path of U.S. monetary policy. Reuters noted that markets have been pricing further Federal Reserve easing in 2026, and that dynamic has been a key tailwind for precious metals broadly. [7]
Investors’ focus is intensifying into year-end, in part because the market is looking for additional clarity on the rate path. Reuters’ “Week Ahead” preview also pointed to Fed minutes due next week as a key macro event for markets. [8]
2) A weaker dollar and safe-haven demand are boosting metals
A softer U.S. dollar tends to make dollar-priced commodities more attractive to non-U.S. buyers. Reuters flagged the dollar’s weekly decline as a supportive factor for gold—and that same logic typically extends to silver. [9]
At the same time, the market is also trading geopolitical risk. Reuters cited heightened tensions and headline risk as part of the backdrop lifting safe-haven flows across precious metals. [10]
3) Supply deficits and industrial demand have created a “tight market” story
Silver’s unique identity—part monetary metal, part industrial input—can intensify rallies when macro and fundamentals align. Reuters attributed the latest surge to factors including persistent supply shortfalls and industrial/investment demand, alongside momentum buying. [11]
Industry groups have also highlighted structural imbalance. The Silver Institute has projected the silver market is on course for a fifth successive structural deficit, while noting demand and supply dynamics remain heavily influenced by industrial use (including photovoltaics) and shifting economic conditions. [12]
The policy tailwind investors didn’t expect: silver’s “critical mineral” status
A major storyline that has moved from niche policy circles into mainstream market commentary is silver’s link to strategic supply chains.
The U.S. Department of the Interior’s final 2025 List of Critical Minerals added silver among the newly included minerals—an official recognition that supply disruptions could have economic and national-security implications. [13]
That designation has become part of the narrative supporting prices. Reuters explicitly referenced silver’s “critical mineral” status as one of the factors underpinning the market’s advance. [14]
What analysts are saying: $80 in sight, but volatility risk is rising
With silver hovering in the high-$70s, the next round-number target is obvious—and several strategists have addressed it directly.
“$80 in silver is within reach by year-end,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, in comments reported by Reuters—while also warning that thin markets raise the risk of profit-taking. [15]
That caution matters because silver’s rallies can be violent in both directions. In a separate Reuters analysis earlier this month, Rhona O’Connell, head of market analysis at StoneX, emphasized silver’s tendency to move more sharply than gold due to its smaller market size and higher volatility. [16]
Some forecasters are still looking higher into 2026. An Investing.com report cited Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA, saying silver “has the potential to reach around $90” in the first half of 2026. [17]
Meanwhile, not every major shop expects a straight line higher. In a note carried by Investing.com, UBS argued that key drivers (rates, deficits, dollar weakness) remain supportive, but also warned it anticipates a peak in 2026, with a December 2026 forecast well below current spot levels—an implicit reminder of how quickly silver can mean-revert after parabolic moves. [18]
How investors are trading silver right now
The rally is also drawing attention to the fact that “silver” is not a single market—it’s an ecosystem:
London OTC physical market:
Reuters notes the largest marketplace for physical silver is London, where bullion trading is conducted over-the-counter among banks and brokers. The market is underpinned by bullion held in major bank vaults, and Reuters reported London vaults held 27,187 tons of silver as of the end of November 2025. [19]
Futures (COMEX and Shanghai):
Silver futures are widely used for hedging and speculation, allowing participants to take exposure without moving metal. For U.S. price discovery, COMEX silver futures are central—and CME Group’s product materials specify the core contract is 5,000 troy ounces and outline the main electronic and pit-session hours. [20]
ETFs (paper silver):
Exchange-traded funds can translate retail and institutional demand into real-world vault flows. Reuters describes the ETF mechanism as a channel where strong demand can lead to additional physical silver being moved into vaults to create new shares. [21]
For example, BlackRock’s iShares Silver Trust (SLV) reported holdings of 526,968,862.80 ounces (about 16,390.56 tonnes) as of Dec. 26, 2025. [22]
Bars, coins, and miners:
Retail investors can still buy physical bullion, while equity investors often use silver miners as a leveraged proxy—though miners add company-specific risks (costs, balance sheets, operational execution). Reuters noted U.S.-listed precious-metals miners rose Friday alongside record silver and gold prices. [23]
Market closed now: what investors should know before the next session
Because it’s Saturday, the practical question for many traders is not “what happened?” but “what can move silver next?”
1) Watch Sunday night futures and Monday liquidity
Silver is heavily influenced by futures positioning and macro cross-asset flows. CME Group’s published contract information indicates COMEX silver trading is available electronically during defined windows (with daily maintenance breaks), which means price discovery can resume before the Monday cash session in equities fully gets underway. [24]
2) Year-end positioning can exaggerate moves
Reuters has emphasized that year-end adjustments and light holiday liquidity can amplify volatility—especially in markets already in momentum mode. [25]
3) Fed minutes and rate expectations remain a near-term catalyst
Macro traders will be focused on whether upcoming signals reinforce the market’s current “easier policy” narrative. Reuters has highlighted Fed minutes next week as a focal point for investors assessing the 2026 rate path. [26]
4) Know the holiday calendar ahead
The last week of the year compresses liquidity and can create abrupt price gaps. According to Investopedia’s holiday schedule recap, U.S. stock traders have a full day on New Year’s Eve, while bond trading ends at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 31, and both stock and bond markets are closed on Jan. 1, 2026 for New Year’s Day. [27]
For equity investors using ETFs and miners as silver exposure, those closures can matter just as much as the metal’s own market hours.
Bottom line
Silver enters the final days of 2025 in a rare position: trading at or near all-time highs, supported by a powerful mix of Fed-cut expectations, dollar dynamics, supply-deficit narratives, and policy tailwinds tied to critical-mineral supply chains. [28]
But as multiple strategists have warned, silver’s defining feature is not just upside potential—it’s volatility. After a run that has already outpaced many forecasts, the next session could bring either another momentum burst toward psychologically important round numbers—or a sharp shakeout if profit-taking hits thin liquidity. [29]
References
1. www.jmbullion.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. silverinstitute.org, 13. www.doi.gov, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.cmegroup.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.ishares.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.cmegroup.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.investopedia.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com
