- Key Inflation Data: U.S. CPI for September rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, versus forecasts for 0.4%/3.1% [1]. Core CPI (ex-food/energy) was also 0.2% m/m and 3.0% y/y [2] – a slight easing from August. The softer-than-expected inflation means the Federal Reserve is still on track to trim rates by 25 basis points at its Oct 28–29 meeting [3] [4].
- U.S. Market Moves: Wall Street futures jumped after the report. By Friday morning, Dow E-mini futures were up +0.5%, S&P 500 E-minis +0.7%, Nasdaq 100 E-minis +0.98% [5]. The major indexes sit near all-time highs (Dow ~46,700; S&P ~6,640) [6]. Earlier in the week the Dow closed around 46,925 (near record) [7].
- Earnings Highlights: Tech earnings drove trading: Intel surged about 8% pre-market on a blockbuster Q3 profit beat [8]. By contrast, recent misses from Tesla and Netflix had weighed on the Nasdaq. Retailer Deckers Outdoor plunged 11.5% after cutting its full-year sales outlook [9], and Ford stock rose ~4.5% on a beat [10]. Analyst Michael Green of Simplify AM notes that in this “wait-and-see” mode, even big earnings surprises are only nudging markets [11] [12].
- Global Markets: Optimism spread overseas. MSCI’s Asia index climbed +0.5% as U.S.-China trade tensions eased (Trump and Xi will meet Oct 30) [13]. Japan’s Nikkei jumped ~2.8% after a pro-stimulus election [14]. China’s stock benchmarks also rallied (Hang Seng +0.9%) on hopes of new stimulus [15]. By contrast, safe-havens eased: gold, which briefly hit a record ~$4,300/oz last week, pulled back to about $4,130 [16], and WTI crude is around $62 (Brent ~$65) – lower than levels of recent tariff-driven spikes [17] [18].
- Fed Outlook: With inflation “ticking lower” [19], Fed futures imply ~95% odds of a 25bp cut next week [20]. Fed officials have signaled such easing: Governor Christopher Waller recently urged “worrisome” labor-market weakness as reason to cut [21], and Chair Powell has said more cuts are “on the table.” Nomura’s David Seif warns Fed policymakers are “flying blind” without jobs data [22], but analysts like TS2’s Marcin Frąckiewicz note that this supportive stance (plus the earnings backdrop) keeps bulls optimistic [23] [24].
- Valuation & Risks: Some experts caution markets are “stretched” [25]. The S&P 500’s market-cap-to-GDP (Buffett Indicator) is ~219% – above the 200% “danger” level [26]. Anthony Saglimbene of Ameriprise notes any unexpected “hiccup” could trigger a pullback at these lofty highs [27]. Likewise, TS2 warns that while consensus forecasts still see the S&P reaching ~7,000 by year-end if earnings hold, others project a 10–15% correction as a healthy retracement [28].
Market Analysis: Friday’s tame CPI print soothed immediate rate-cut concerns and spurred a relief rally. Futures lifted all sectors, but tech/AI remains a focus. For example, AMD is near $235 after surging ~80% YTD on AI demand [29], and TSMC hovers near all-time highs (~$294) on chip demand [30]. Mega-cap favorites carry “strong buy” sentiment – Microsoft, Amazon, Walmart and Broadcom top analyst picks [31]. Health and energy also shine: Eli Lilly (~$935) is up on obesity-drug sales (analysts see ~20% more upside) [32], while refiners benefit from resilient oil prices.
Expert Voices: “Valuations continue to be the best argument for bears,” notes Mark Hackett of Nationwide, but he adds even the skeptics are “questioning their outlook” given the market’s buy-the-dip streak [33]. Bowersock Capital’s Emily Hill expects the Fed to stick to two more cuts (Oct and Dec), saying Friday’s CPI won’t materially alter that view [34]. UBS’s Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi agrees the bull market has room to run on Fed ease and AI investment, but cautions that any U.S.–China flare-up or an inflation surprise could trigger volatility [35]. In short, analysts describe a “cautiously optimistic” mood [36]: fundamentals (earnings beats, rate cuts) are strong, but risks (shaky data, geopolitics, high valuations) mean investors are watching every cue.
Bottom Line: Wall Street enters Oct. 24 on a high note – futures up and major indices near records – bolstered by cooler inflation and hopes for Fed relief [37] [38]. But with all eyes on next week’s Fed meeting, any surprises (in CPI or big-company results) could swing sentiment. As one strategist put it, the path higher is still supported by earnings and policy, but it’s “not out of the woods” [39] [40].
Sources: Market data and expert quotes from Reuters [41] [42] [43], Investors.com [44], Yahoo Finance, TS2.Tech [45] [46], The Edge Singapore [47] [48], and others as cited. All analysis and forecasts are based on current market information (as of Oct. 24, 2025).
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. ts2.tech, 7. ts2.tech, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. ts2.tech, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.theedgesingapore.com, 14. ts2.tech, 15. ts2.tech, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. ts2.tech, 19. www.investopedia.com, 20. ts2.tech, 21. ts2.tech, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. ts2.tech, 24. ts2.tech, 25. ts2.tech, 26. ts2.tech, 27. ts2.tech, 28. ts2.tech, 29. ts2.tech, 30. ts2.tech, 31. ts2.tech, 32. ts2.tech, 33. www.theedgesingapore.com, 34. www.theedgesingapore.com, 35. www.theedgesingapore.com, 36. ts2.tech, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. ts2.tech, 39. ts2.tech, 40. ts2.tech, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. www.reuters.com, 45. ts2.tech, 46. ts2.tech, 47. www.theedgesingapore.com, 48. www.theedgesingapore.com
